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이무식(Moo-Sik Lee) 한국농촌의학 지역보건학회 2022 농촌의학·지역보건 Vol.47 No.2
Objectives: In the epidemiology of communicable diseases, the term epidemic period, also referred to as "wave" is often used in the general and academic milieu. A wave refers to a natural pattern of increase in the number of sick individuals, a defined peak, and then a decline in the number of cases. It implies a pattern of peaks and valleys after a particular peak is taken. The idea of epidemic waves is a useful tool for predicting the course as well as helping to accurately describe an epidemic. However, in many domestic and foreign news as well as in various research results in Korea, most of the reports either had no standard, were inaccurate, had a questionable classification of the period of the epidemic, or the basis for classification of a given wave was not presented. Methods: The author reviewed and organized related literature with epidemic wave. The author made several suggestions of an epidemic wave as follows. Results: To start with, it should be based on the number of incident cases in consideration of the size of the outbreak, then the period from the bottom to the peak and then reaching the next bottom; also, the period over a certain scale based on the number of incident cases; and the period according to the change in the major infection type (mutation-dominant species). In addition, according to the period of change in the vaccination rate (formation of herd immunity), as well as the content and duration of the intervention, that is, classification according to the applied quarantine stage. Furthermore, the classification of epidemic periods by the time-dependent reproduction number or time-varying reproduction number (Rt), and lastly the application of mathematical methodology. Conclusions: Therefore, classifying the epidemic period into generally known and accepted time frames is considered to be a very important task for future research analysis and development of intervention strategies.
Moo-Sik Lee(이무식),Jee-Hee Kim(김지희),Kwang-Hwan Kim(김광환),Jee-Young Hong(홍지영),Jin-Yong Lee(이진용),Keon-Yeop Kim(김건엽) 한국농촌의학 지역보건학회 2011 농촌의학·지역보건 Vol.36 No.2
목적 : 이 연구는 국가예방접종률 산출 및 조사방법론 개발을 위한 기반을 조성하기 위하여 예방접종률 파악을 위한 자료원 중 영유아 예방접종 수첩기록의 정확도를 평가하기 위하여 수행되었다. 대상 및 방법 : 연구대상은 2005년 1월 31일을 기준으로 충청남도 논산시에 주민등록상 거주하는 생후 12-35개월 영유아 전체로 하였다. 연구대상자가 거주하는 가구를 2005년 2-4월까지 방문하여 보호자의 동의를 얻어 예방접종 수첩기록을 조사하였다. 예방접종 수첩기록의 정확도를 평가하기 위하여 2005년 5-7월까지 예방접종을 시행한 의료기관 및 보건소의 접종관련 기록을 확보하여 예방접종 접종 여부 및 접종 일자의 기록 일치 여부를 확인하였다. 비교 대상 예방접종은 결핵(BCG), B형간염, 디프테리아/파상풍/백일해(DTaP), 홍역/유행성이하선염/풍진(MMR), 폴리오, 일본뇌염, 수두, 인플루엔자, B형 헤모필루스 인플루엔자 뇌수막염(Hib), A형간염, 폐구균으로 총 11종을 대상으로 하였다. 결과 : 예방접종 수첩의 예방접종 여부 및 접종 일시 기록의 정확도는 BCG는 69.5% 및 80.1%였으며, B형 간염은 1차 41.3% 및 89.7%, 2차 76.6% 및 82.1%, 3차 79.7% 및 79.0%였으며, DTaP는 1차 79.9% 및 87.5%, 2차 80.8% 및 87.3%, 3차 82.5% 및 85.1%, 4차 79.9% 및 83.5%였으며, 폴리오는 1차 79.5% 및 88.1%, 2차 79.8% 및 86.2%, 3차 82.1% 및 84.8%였으며, MMR은 83.2% 및 84.0%였으며, 일본뇌염 1차는 80.7% 및 83.1%였으며, 수두는 74.9% 및 83.7%였으며, 인플루엔자는 74.1% 및 55.3%였으며, Hib 1차는 72.7% 및 90.7%였으며, A형 간염 1차는 79.5% 및 88.4%였으며, 폐렴구균 1차는 73.2% 및 90.3%로 나타났다. 결론 : 여러 가지 연구의 제한점에도 불구하고, 예방접종 수첩의 상당한 수준의 신뢰도를 확인하였으나 수첩의 예방접종력 정확도 및 타당도에 대한 추가 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다. The aims of this study were to survey, evaluate the accuracy of personal immunization record of vaccination card, and to establish the applicability of personal immunization record for presuming population based immunization rate and evaluation method. In 2005, a population-based survey of 12-35 months old children was carried out in Nonsan, Korea. We conducted household survey and provider check using questionnaire and checklist to obtain data on immunization status for children. Total 11 vaccinations were checked in vaccination card such as BCG, hepatitis b, polio, chickenpox vaccine. For estimating accuracy of immunization status and dates of immunization, we estimated correspondence rate between data from personal vaccination card and data from medical records and immunization registry data. Accuracy of the child"s vaccination card by type of National Immunization Program vaccine in whole medical institutions were from 41.8% to 83.2%. Accuracy for the date of vaccination of vaccination card in National Immunization Programme vaccine were from 55.3% to 89.7%. In spite of this study limitations, this study verified the validity of vaccination record of vaccination card substantially, but suggests more efforts to reassure the validity of vaccination card.