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주변국의 그레이존 전략과 한국의 지전략: 복합해양지전략의 관점에서
이면우,오승희,Lee, Myun Woo,Oh, Seunghee 한국해양전략연구소 2020 해양안보 Vol.1 No.1
본 연구는 그레이존에 대한 주변국의 전략을 살펴보고 한국의 그레이존 전략을 모색하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 그레이존에 대한 개념은 국가마다 분야마다 다양하게 나타나고 있다. 국제관계에서 그레이존은 전쟁과 평화의 사이라는 포괄적인 공간이다. 해양에서의 그레이존은 향후 미중경쟁이 본격화되고 대리전이 가능한 불안정한 공간으로 그레이존의 전략적인 관리가 필요하다. 본 연구는 해양안보 분야에서의 그레이존의 개념을 정리하고, 주요국들의 그레이존 전략을 살펴본 후 한국의 그레이존 대응방안을 제시한다. 특히 그레이존에 대한 복합해양지전략 분석틀에 근거한 문제의 명확화와 해양상황파악(MDA) 추진체계 확립을 위한 해경강화 및 해군과의 정보공유의 강화가 필요하다고 주장한다. 본 연구에서 시도한 복합해양지전략적 이론틀은 한국의 다양한 그레이존 이슈들의 성격을 파악하고 사안별 대응전략을 마련하는 데 도움이 될 것으로 기대한다. 또한 일본과 중국을 비롯한 주변국들의 그레이존 전략을 확인하고 한국에 접목하며 향후 강화되는 미중 경쟁 속 그레이존의 평화화 가능성에 대해 모색한다. The purpose of this study is to examine the perceptions of neighboring countries on the gray zone and to explore Korea's maritime strategy. The concept of gray zones appears in various ways from country to country. In international relations, the gray zone is a comprehensive space between war and peace. The gray zone in the ocean is an unstable space in which competition between the US and China is represented and proxy wars are possible, and the gray zone needs strategic management. This study summarizes the concept of gray zones in the maritime security field, examines the gray zone strategies of neighboring countries, and suggests Korea's gray zone strategies. In particular, the recognition of the gray zone itself is the core of the problem, and it is necessary to strengthen information sharing to clarify the problem about the gray zone and accurately recognize the gray zone situation. The CMG(Complex Maritime Geostrategy) framework attempted in this study is expected to be helpful in understanding the nature of various gray zone issues around Korea and preparing for a geostrategy based on the analysis.
경계(警戒) 임무(任務) 담당자(擔當者)의 시간지연(時間遲延)에 따르는 인간(人間) 성능(性能)의 변화(變化)에 대(對)한 연구(硏究) 및 개선방안(改善方案)
이면우,Myun-Woo,Lee 대한조선학회 1974 大韓造船學會誌 Vol.11 No.1
This study is aimed at a validation of the vigilance simulation model which was proposed earlier (2). The model estimates a perceived danger value, an alertness level and the probability of detection at a given elapsed time of vigilance. Twenty-nine male and seven female subjects were given a simple task. They were asked to detect a number(four numbers out of six digits in the telephone directory which have the probability of occurrence in the range of 0.0010-0.0018) in six different experimental conditions, for periods of two to three hours. Analysis of the experiments showed that although the mean detection rate varied slightly in two hours, the within-subject variance and the number of cyclic performance fluctuations increased significantly. A primal factor that affects the performance seems to be the frequency of target occurrence. By curve fitting, the relation between the probability of detection and the percentages of danger event occurrence was derived; $y=0.50(1-{\varepsilon}^{-50x^2})+0.39$. Assuming the equation represents the normal detection rate(100% performance), the Relative Vigilance Performance Rating was calculated. This rating method could be a useful criterion in selecting and training of the vigilance personnel. The results show that the simulation model is a good estimator of human a performance when the probability of danger occurrence is greater than 0.0015; it gives a good reference for improving the vigilance system. Suggestions are made that (1) the validity of proposed functional equations over the extended range of danger probability be studied, (2) an analysis of the cyclic fluctuations of the alertness level be accomplished, and (3) the cost functions of detection reliability be included in any future model.
Target Population과 Product Function의 Matrix 분석을 이용한 High Touch 신제품의 판매예측 방법
박원희,김대갑,김기선,이상원,이면우,Park, Won-Hui,Kim, Dae-Gap,Kim, Ki-Sun,Lee, Sang-Won,Lee, Myun-Woo 대한인간공학회 2007 大韓人間工學會誌 Vol.26 No.1
Demand forecasting methods for a consumer product such as TV or refrigerator are widely known. However, sales forecast for a brand new product cannot be estimated using conventional forecasting methods. This study proposes a five-step procedure in forecasting a newly developed product. Step one defines functions in a High Touch product in order to estimate relative attraction of the product to consumer group. In step two, for a comparison purpose, a compatible product that is successfully penetrated into market is selected. Step three breaks a target population into many segments based on demography. Step four calculates relative attraction between the High Touch product and the compatible product. Finally, market penetration rate of the High Touch product is estimated using a bell-shaped diffusion curve of the compatible product. The process offers a method to estimate potential demand and growth pattern of the new High Touch product.