SPI 변화에 따른 산불발생과의 관계 분석

윤석희 ( Suk Hee Yoon ),원명수 ( Myoung Soo Won ) 한국지리정보학회 2016 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.19 No.2

This study analyzed the correlation between the standardized precipitation index(SPI) and forest fire occurrences using monthly accumulative rainfall data since 1970 and regional fire occurrence data since 1991. To understand the relationship between the SPI and forest fire occurrences, the correlations among the SPI of nine main observatory weather stations including Seoul, number of fire occurrences, and log of fire occurrences were analyzed. We analyzed the correlation of SPI with fire occurrences in the 1990s and 2000s and found that in the 1990s, the SPI of 3 months showed high correlation in Gyeonggi, Gangwon, and Chungnam, while the SPI of 6 months showed high correlation in Chungbuk, and the SPI of 12 months showed high correlation in Gyeongnam, Gyenongbuk, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk. In the 2000s, the SPI of 6 months showed high correlation with the fire frequency in Gyeonggi, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk, whereas the fire frequency in western Gangwon was highly correlated with the SPI of 3 months and, in eastern Gangwon, Gyeongnam, and Gyenongbuk, with the SPI of 1 month. In the 1990s, distinct differences in the drought condition between the SPI of 3 months and 12 months in the northern and southern regions of Korean Peninsula were found, whereas the differences in both the SPI of 1 month and 6 months were found in the Baekdudaegan region except western Gangwon since the 2000s. Therefore, this study suggests that we can develop a model to predict forest fire occurrences by applying the SPI of 1-month and 6-month data in the future.

MODIS Fire Spot 정보와 5km 기상 재분석 자료를 활용한 접근불능지역의 산불기상위험지수 산출 모형 개발

원명수,장근창,윤석희,WON, Myoung-Soo,JANG, Keun-Chang,YOON, Suk-Hee 한국지리정보학회 2018 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.21 No.3

This study has developed a forest fire occurrence probability model for inaccessible areas such as North Korea and Demilitarized Zone and we have developed a real-time forest fire danger rating system that can be used in fire-related works. There are limitations on the research that it is impossible to conduct site investigation for data acquisition and verification for forest fire weather index model and system development. To solve this problem, we estimated the fire spots in the areas where access is impossible by using MODIS satellite data with scientific basis. Using the past meteorological reanalysis data(5㎞ resolution) produced by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) on the extracted fires, the meteorological characteristics of the fires were extracted and made database. The meteorological factors extracted from the forest fire ignition points in the inaccessible areas are statistically correlated with the forest fire occurrence and the weather factors and the logistic regression model that can estimate the forest fires occurrence(fires 1 and non-fores 0). And used to calculate the forest fire weather index(FWI). The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models(p<0.01) strongly depends on maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, effective humidity and average wind speed. The logistic regression model constructed in this study showed a relatively high accuracy of 66%. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in Republic of Korea(ROK) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK) for the prevention of forest fires. 본 연구는 북한 및 비무장지대 등 접근불능지역에 대한 기상에 의한 산불발생예측 알고리즘을 개발하고, 실제 현장과 현업에서 활용할 수 있는 실시간 산불위험예보 체계를 개발하는데 있다. 산불기상위험지수 산출 모형 개발을 위해 자료의 취득과 검증을 위한 현장조사가 불가능하다는 연구적 한계가 존재하므로, 이를 해결하기 위해 MODIS 위성자료를 활용하여 접근이 불가능한 지역의 산불발화지점(fire spot)을 과학적 근거를 가지고 추정하였다. 추출된 산불발화지점을 대상으로 기상청에서 생산된 과거 기상 재분석자료(5㎞ 해상도)를 활용하여 산불발화지점에 대한 기상특성을 추출하여 데이터베이스화 하였다. 접근불능지역의 산불발화지점에서 추출된 기상요소들은 산불발생과 기상요인들과의 통계적 상관성과 산불발생 유무(산불발생 1, 산불 미발생 0)를 추정할 수 있는 로지스틱 회귀모형을 활용하여 실시간 기상변화에 의한 산불기상위험지수(Fire Weather Index, FWI)를 개발하였다. FWI 모형의 예측정확도는 66.6%로 나타나 모형의 적합도는 비교적 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구결과는 남 북한의 산불 방지를 위한 정책 입안자들의 의사결정에 유용하게 활용될 것으로 기대한다.

2000~2008년 봄철 황사와 산불발생의 관계 분석

원명수 ( Myoung Soo Won ),윤석희 ( Suk Hee Yoon ),이우균 ( Woo Kyun Lee ) 한국농림기상학회 2011 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.13 No.3

The purpose of this study is to analyze the patterns of forest fire possibly related with Asian dust event and carry out a correlation analysis between forest fire occurrence and existence or not of the Asian dust event during dry seasons i.e. February to May in 2000 to 2008. To study the correlation of forest fire and Asian dust, we surveyed information of Asian dust observations, forest fire statistics, fire danger rating index, weather data such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed of the day occurring the forest fire. As a consequence of analysis, the regional frequency of Asian dust was the highest in Gyeonggi and Chungbuk divisions. Frequencies of forest fire occurrence by the Asian dust events were the highest in the day before three days of the Asian dust event. The highest frequent regions of forest fire occurrence were district of boundary line between Gyeonggi and Western of Gangwon, Chungbuk and Gyeonbuk inland. The correlation between forest fire and fire danger rating index showed the high correlation with the day before three days and after three days of the Asian dust event. These correlation coefficients were 0.50038 and 0.53978 to 1% significance level. The result of analysis between the frequency of forest fire occurrence and wind speed had a highly negative relationship at all the Asian dust days, the day before and after three days. The correlation coefficients had been -0.58623 to -0.61245 to 1% significance level. Relative humidity showed a little of negative relationship with forest fire occurrence in -0.2568(p ≤ 0.01) for the Asian dust day and -0.35309(p ≤ 0.01) for next three days. Moreover, at the day before three days of Asian dust events, it was -0.23701 to 1% significance level. However, the mean temperature did not correlate with frequency of forest fire occurrence by Asian dust events at all.

1990년대와 2000년대 건조계절의 산불발생 시공간 변화 분석

원명수 ( Myoung Soo Won ),윤석희 ( Suk Hee Yoon ),구교상 ( Kyo Sang Koo ),김경하 ( Kyong Ha Kim ) 한국지리정보학회 2011 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.14 No.3

For the period between 1991 and 2009, the annual average of 448 forest fires occurred in Korea. Above all, approximately 94% of the total fires frequently occurred during the spring and fall seasons. Therefore, we need to minimize the damage of forest fire and manage them systematically. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution patterns for the frequency of forest fire occurrences by each city and gun during dry season between 1990s and 2000s using GIS. Then we compared to analyze the frequency of forest fire occurrence by ten-day intervals in 2000s with that in 1990s. As a result of analysis, early April showed the highest frequency of forest fire occurrence in both 1990s and 2000s. Compared to the 1990s and 2000s, the regional change of forest fire showed the most frequent fire events around Chungcheong province. Especially extra 27 fires increased in Daejeon city, and the second most frequent fire had more than 10 fires in Jeolla province and Incheon. However, the number of fire frequency decreased by 12 fires at the end of April in Hongcheon-gun(the province of Gangwon). This is the largest drop over the study period. We consider that this paper will utilize usefully to establish regional counterplan for forest fire prevention by understanding regional forest fire patterns from seasonal change.

전기저항 값을 이용한 산불지상연료 습도 추정에 관한 연구

염찬호(Yeom Chan Ho),원명수(Won Myoung Soo),이시영(Lee Si Young),윤석희(Yoon Suk Hee),박흥석(Park Houng Sek) 한국방재학회 2018 한국방재학회지 Vol.18 No.4

본 연구에서는 산불의 발생과 확산 위험성의 지표인 산림연료의 수분함량과 산불위험도의 변화를 예측하기 위한 산림연료습도 측정센서를 제작하여 전기저항 값과의 관계구명을 위한 실험을 실시하였다. 산림연료습도 센서에서 사용된 표준연료의 재질은 기선정된 소나무(길이 50 cm, 직경 1.5 cm)를 선정하여 산림연료습도 측정센서 함수율의 변화 추이에 따라 전기저항 값의 변화를 측정하였다. 측정결과를 통해 함수율을 전기저항을 통해 추정하는 환산식(전기저항=2E(E : Exponent of 10) + 13X(X :함수율) -9.705(R²=0.947))을 도출하였다. 이를 통해, 산불의 발생, 확산과 강도를 예측할 수 있는 기술의 개발에 도움을 줄 것으로 예상되며, 산불위험 예보기술의 고도화를 위한 기초자료 제공이 될 것으로 기대된다. In this studies, we tested for investigating the relationship between a fuel moisture and an electrical resistance which was main factor for making forest fuel moisture sensor. This sensor was made for forecasting a forest fire danger rating which was concerned with forest fuel moisture contents. The standard fuel for using sensor was made by pine tree, stick shaped. (The length was 50 cm and The diameter was 1.5 cm). We measured the electrical resistance change according to fuel moisture weight change in the standard fuel. In results, we developed the conversion formula for estimating a fuel moisture in forest(electrical resistance=2E (E : Exponent of 10) + 13X (X : fuel moisture) - 9.705, R²=0.947) This formula would give a help for development of techniques about estimating a forest fire ignition, a propagation and severity and for the construction of base data for advanced forest fire forecasting.

MODIS Fire Spot 정보와 5㎞ 기상 재분석 자료를 활용한 접근불능지역의 산불기상위험지수 산출 모형 개발

원명수 ( Myoung-soo Won ),장근창 ( Keun-chang Jang ),윤석희 ( Suk-hee Yoon ) 한국지리정보학회 2018 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.21 No.3

This study has developed a forest fire occurrence probability model for inaccessible areas such as North Korea and Demilitarized Zone and we have developed a real-time forest fire danger rating system that can be used in fire-related works. There are limitations on the research that it is impossible to conduct site investigation for data acquisition and verification for forest fire weather index model and system development. To solve this problem, we estimated the fire spots in the areas where access is impossible by using MODIS satellite data with scientific basis. Using the past meteorological reanalysis data(5㎞ resolution) produced by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) on the extracted fires, the meteorological characteristics of the fires were extracted and made database. The meteorological factors extracted from the forest fire ignition points in the inaccessible areas are statistically correlated with the forest fire occurrence and the weather factors and the logistic regression model that can estimate the forest fires occurrence(fires 1 and non-fores 0). And used to calculate the forest fire weather index(FWI). The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models(p<0.01) strongly depends on maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, effective humidity and average wind speed. The logistic regression model constructed in this study showed a relatively high accuracy of 66%. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in Republic of Korea(ROK) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK) for the prevention of forest fires.

소나무 수관 부위별 연료량 추정식 개발 및 수관연료밀도 분석

이병두 ( Byung Doo Lee ),원명수 ( Myoung Soo Won ),김선영 ( Seon Young Kim ),윤석희 ( Suk Hee Yoon ),이명보 ( Myung Bo Lee ) 한국산림과학회 2010 한국산림과학회지 Vol.99 No.3

디지털예보자료와 Daily Weather Index (DWI) 모델을 적용한 한반도의 산불발생위험 예측

원명수 ( Myoung Soo Won ),이명보 ( Myung Bo Lee ),이우균 ( Woo Kyun Lee ),윤석희 ( Suk Hee Yoon ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.1

Digital Forecast of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) represents 5 km gridded weather forecast over the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding oceanic regions in Korean territory. Digital Forecast provides 12 weather forecast elements such as three-hour interval temperature, sky condition, wind direction, wind speed, relative humidity, wave height, probability of precipitation, 12 hour accumulated rain and snow, as well as daily minimum and maximum temperatures. These forecast elements are updated every three-hour for the next 48 hours regularly. The objective of this study was to construct Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems on the Korean Peninsula (FFDRS_KORP) based on the daily weather index (DWI) and to improve the accuracy using the digital forecast data. We produced the thematic maps of temperature, humidity, and wind speed over the Korean Peninsula to analyze DWI. To calculate DWI of the Korean Peninsula it was applied forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression analysis, i.e. [1+exp{-(2.494+(0.004×Tmax) - (0.008×EF))}]-1. The result of verification test among the real-time observatory data, digital forecast and RDAPS data showed that predicting values of the digital forecast advanced more than those of RDAPS data. The results of the comparison with the average forest fire danger rating index (sampled at 233 administrative districts) and those with the digital weather showed higher relative accuracy than those with the RDAPS data. The coefficient of determination of forest fire danger rating was shown as R2=0.854. There was a difference of 0.5 between the national mean fire danger rating index (70) with the application of the real-time observatory data and that with the digital forecast (70.5).

사례분석을 통한 소나무림에서의 풍속과 실효습도 변화에 의한 대형산불 위험예보

강성철 ( Sung-chul Kang ),원명수 ( Myoung-soo Won ),윤석희 ( Suk-hee Yoon ) 한국지리정보학회 2016 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.19 No.4

In this study, we developed a large fire forecasting system using critical weather conditions, such as strong winds and effective humidity. We incorporated information on forest type prior to large fires using an incident case study. The case study includes thirty-seven large fires covering more than 100 ha of damaged area over the last 20 years. Dangerous large fire regions were identified as areas of more than 30 ha of Korean red pine and the surrounding two kilometers. Large fires occur when wind speeds average 5.3 m/s with a maximum of 11.6 m/s and standard deviation of 2.5 m/s. Effective humidity for large fires average 30% with a minimum of 13% and standard deviation of 14.5%. In dangerous Korean red pine stand areas, the large fire `Watch` level is issued when effective humidity is 30-45% for more than two days and average wind speed is 7-10 m/s. The `Warning` level is issued when effective humidity is less than 30% for more than two days and average wind speed is more than 11 m/s. Therefore, from now on, the large fire forecasting system can be used effectively for forest fire prevention activities based on a selection and concentration strategy in dangerous large fire regions using severe weather conditions.

악성임파선종양 168 예의 임상적 고찰

정동규 ( Dong Kyu Chung ),손창학 ( Chang Hak Sohn ),장영복 ( Young Bog Jang ),허기석 ( Ki Suk Huh ),윤석희 ( Suk Hee Yoon ) 대한내과학회 1982 대한내과학회지 Vol.25 No.8