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IFRS 도입이 애널리스트 투자의견 낙관주의에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구
윤나영 ( Nayoung Yoon ),모경원 ( Kyoungwon Mo ) 한국회계학회 2016 회계학연구 Vol.41 No.4
본 연구는 IFRS의 도입으로 회계정보환경이 어떻게 달라졌는지를 애널리스트 투자의견 속 낙관주의의 변화를 통해 알아보고자 한다. IFRS 도입 이후 애널리스트 리포트의 질적 변화에 관한 연구들이 주로 이익예측치에 대한 연구에 집중된 반면 애널리스트의 투자의견에 관한 연구는 거의 찾아볼 수 없다. 그러나 애널리스트가 발행하는 투자의견은 이익예측치와 더불어 애널리스트 리포트의 가장 중요한 요소일 뿐만 아니라 일반투자자들의 투자 결정에 이익예측치에 비해 보다 직접적으로 큰 영향을 미친다고 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 애널리스트 투자 의견에 관한 연구의 필요성을 느끼고 특별히 한국 애널리스트가 발행하는 투자의견 속 낙관주의가 IFRS 도입 이후 어떻게 변화했는지 알아보았다. 만약 IFRS 도입 이후에 정보환경이 개선되어서 애널리스트가 투자의견을 낙관적으로 발행했을 때 이를 일반투자자들이 쉽게 알아차릴 수 있게 되었다면, 낙관적인 투자의견에 대한시장의 불이익을 우려하여 애널리스트가 IFRS 도입 이후에는 낙관적인 투자의견의 발행을 자제할 것으로 예상할 수 있다. 반대로 만약 IFRS 도입 이후 일반투자자의 회계정보 해석이 더 어려워져서 애널리스트 투자의견에 의존하는 경향이 커졌다면, 이를 이용해서 애널리스트는 투자의견 속에 더 많은 낙관주의를 심으려고 시도할 것으로도 예측할 수 있다. 즉, IFRS 도입 이후 애널리스트 투자의견 속 낙관주의의 변화는 양방향으로 모두 가능하기 때문에 실증 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구의 실증 분석 결과, IFRS 도입 이후에 애널리스트의 투자의견 속 낙관주의가 크게 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 좀 더 구체적으로 낙관주의가 어떻게 증가했는지, 애널리스트 투자의견별로 살펴본 결과 매수의견이 크게 증가하고 유지, 하회, 매도의견은 반대로 크게 감소해서 전체적으로 낙관주의가 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 추가적으로 IFRS의 도입이 애널리스트 추천 의견 낙관주의와 이익예측치 낙관주의의 패턴에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 살펴본 결과, 애널리스트의 전략적 동기와 무관하게 IFRS 도입은 둘 사이의 관계에 유의미한 영향을 미치지 않음을 확인하였다. 나아가 재벌 그룹에 속한 증권사의 애널리스트가 같은 재벌 그룹 내 소속사에 대해 내놓은 투자의견 속 낙관주의의 변화도 살펴보았는데, IFRS 도입 이후에 이러한 낙관주의도 역시 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 종합하면 IFRS 이후에 정보환경이 일반투자자들로 하여금 애널리스트 투자의견 속낙관주의를 발견하기 어렵게 바뀌었으며, 이는 애널리스트 투자의견 속 낙관주의의 증가로 이어졌다고 해석할 수 있다. This paper investigates the impacts of the adoption of IFRS on the quality of accounting information by examining the change in the optimistic bias in the financial analysts’ stock recommendations after the adoption of IFRS. Many studies about the effects of IFRS on the quality of analyst reports focus on analysts`` earnings forecasts but not on their stock recommendations. However, both analysts`` earnings forecasts and stock recommendations are key elements of analyst reports. In addition, analysts’ recommendations affect more directly and closely on investment decision of investors than their earnings forecasts. Therefore, to fill the lack, this paper particularly examines the change in the optimistic bias in analysts`` stock recommendations after the adoption of IFRS. More precisely, if investors easily detect the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendations due to the improved information environment following the adoption of IFRS, the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendation would decrease after the adoption of IFRS. On the other hand, if the information environment has deteriorated following the adoption of IFRS, analysts would try more to release optimistic recommendations because investors will not detect the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendations. To conclude these conflicting expectations, empirical research seems to be necessary. The empirical evidence provided by this project shows that the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendation increases after the adoption of IFRS. Specifically, after the adoption of IFRS, ‘Buy’ recommendations significantly increase while ‘Hold’, ‘Underperform’, and ’Sell’ recommendations decrease, which explains the increase in the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendations. Additionally, we investigate whether the IFRS adoption has an influence on the relation between the optimism in the analysts’ recommendations and the optimism in the analysts’ earnings forecasts. The results show that the adoption of IFRS has no significant effect on the relation between the optimism in the analysts’ recommendations and the optimism in the analysts’ earnings forecasts. In other words, IFRS adoption does not affect the analysts’ strategic and opportunistic motivations. Further, this paper also examines whether the Chaebol-affiliated analysts’ recommendations become optimistic following the adoption of IFRS and finds that the optimistic bias in Chaebol-affiliated analysts’ recommendations increase after the adoption of IFRS. Lastly, in order to solve the endogenous problem regarding the likelihood of significant changes in the characteristics of sample firms around the period of the mandatory IFRS adoption, we re-examine the main analysis with the subsample of firms who voluntarily adopt the IFRS and obtain the consistent results with the main analysis. In summary, these results imply that the IFRS adoption deteriorates information environment and consequently, the optimism in analysts’ recommendation increases.
Object rating 기법을 활용한 에어백 Misuse 시험 모드 해석의 신뢰도 향상에 대한 연구
임종수(Jongsoo Lim),윤나영(Nayoung Yoon),방용식(Yongsik Bang) 한국자동차공학회 2016 한국자동차공학회 부문종합 학술대회 Vol.2016 No.5
Currently one of the main purposes of FE analysis of a vehicle crash is to simulate the high speed vehicle collision such as KNCAP in order to improve the passengers safety against injuries by analyzing the vehicle structure deformation and the kinematic of passenger. However the accuracy of CAE for low speed vehicle collision is also required to develop SDM algorithm. Because it decides deployment or no deployment condition of constraints such as airbag and belt pretensioner based on deceleration from high speed crash as well as called “low speed crash”, a level of delta velocity and a series of airbag misuse (or abuse) tests. So this paper suggests the factors to improve accuracy in simulating wild boar and rail road crossing impact and introduces object rating tool finally evaluates the amount of correlation quantitatively by using CORA (Correlating and Analysis) software.
김요셉(Joseph Kim),윤나영(Nayoung Yoon),이재우(Jaewoo Lee),조기순(Kisoon Cho) 한국자동차공학회 2013 한국자동차공학회 부문종합 학술대회 Vol.2013 No.5
Airbags have improved the performance of adults occupant safety. However children who sit in front passenger seats have got fatal injuries. Due to this risk of airbags to children, National Highway Transportation and Safety Administration has made vehicles equipped with Automatic Suppression Systems. These systems detect the passenger status such as adults, children and CRS. Using this information of passenger status, Sensing & Diagnosis Module makes decision whether passenger front airbag is suppressed or deployed. In this paper, Performance and qualities of two types of passenger sensing systems were compared. One uses pattern recognition system and the other uses weight recognition system. Pattern recognition system uses pressure distribution pattern of occupant and weight recognition system uses weight of occupant to classify the occupants. In this research, Sensors of pattern recognition system were located on top of cushion but sensors of weight recognition system were behind cushion foam. In order to measure the performance, correct decision ratio of 5th%ile was used and quality index was used for defining the qualities. The results showed that average correct decision ratio of pattern recognition system and weight base system were 98.84% and 98.52% respectively. Both systems had good performance but positions of 5th%ile which have incorrect decision were different. In order to compare the quality, quality index was used. Quality index was measured by the incidents ratio from fields. When this index of pattern recognition system is 100%, the index of weight recognition system was 40%. Both systems had good enough qualities but weight recognition system was better because it seemed that sensor location of weight recognition system is under cushion of seats.