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유재국(Jae Kook Yu),최기련(Ki Ryon Choi) 한국에너지기후변화학회 2007 에너지기후변화학회지 Vol.2 No.2
To deal with the UNFCCC, energy systems should be changed to low-carbon systems, and it is necessary to deploy the new and renewable energy technologies. This study is to model the competition of two energy technologies using system dynamics method as combining the Lotka-Voltera Model and the Learning By Doing Model. Results of Monte Cairo Simulations show that the lock-out effect can be avoided in the case that the learning and deployment are linked each other with high learning effect of a new technology. Policies for the deployment of the new technology without cutting down the unit cost show the limits of market share and after all the technology will disappeared if the incentive is quitted. Energy Market has such a positive feedback loop that we understand the market structure, the fitness for the survival and, learning capacity of new and renewable technology to deploy them in the energy systems.
유재국 ( Jae Kook Yu ),곽상만 ( Sang Man Kwak ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2005 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.6 No.2
The purpose of this study is to analyze the structure of renewable energy market in order to deploy more renewable energy in Korea on the basis of information asymmetry between suppliers and demanders. To attain this purpose we develop the model to analyze and simulate the renewable market using system dynamics. This model is developed not to forecast the accurate size of market but to learn more structure of market using our limited data, mental model and knowledge of market.
시스템 다이내믹스(system dynamics)의 미래예측 가능성
유재국(Jae Kook Yu) 미래학회 2021 미래연구 Vol.6 No.1
시스템 다이내믹스(system dynamics)는 다양한 용도로 사용되지만 주로 예측과 직관과 관련된 사고 모델(mental model) 수정에 사용된다. 여기에서 는 시스템 다이내믹스의 간단한 소개와 인구ㆍ경제ㆍ자동차 모델을 만들어 출산율이 자동차 수요에 미치는 영향을 모델링하였다. 시스템 다이내믹스는 인과관계를 중요시하지만, 인과관계를 증명하기 어려운 상황에서는 변수 간에 일정한 상관관계가 있다고 보고 변수를 과감히 연결하여 시뮬레이션하는 것이 합리적이고 경제적인 결정이다. System dynamics is applicable to various purposes. The main domain of its’ use is to forecast the futures and to modify mental models such as intuition. This paper’s purpose is to introduce to system dynamics and to show the example of system dynamics model to measure the effect of fertility rate on automobile demand. System dynamics society thinks that the causality is important. In the case of difficult situation to prove the causality among variables in model, it’s better and economic to link the correlated variables of model.
오영민 ( Young Min Oh ),유재국 ( Jae Kook Yu ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2006 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.7 No.1
City of Gyeongju`s referendum finally offered the long-waited low-level radioactive waste disposal site in November 2005. Gyeongju`s positive decision was due to the various economic rewards and incentives the national government promised to the city. 300 million won for an accepting bonus, 8.5 billion won, annual revenue fro the entry quantity of waste into the city`s disposal site, the location of the headquarter building of the Korean Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., and the accelerator research center. All of the above will affect the city`s infrastructure and the citizens` economic and cultural lives. Population, land use, economic structure, environment and quality of life will be affected. Some will be very positive, and some will be positive. This research project will see the future of the city and forecast the demographic, economic, physical and environmental changes of the city via computer simulation`s system dynamics technique. This kind of simulation will help City of Gyeongju`s what to prepare for the future. The population forecasting of the year 2026 will be 289,069 with the waste disposal site, and 279,131 without the waste disposal site in Gyeongju. The waste disposal site and the relocation of the company headquarters and location of the accelerator research center will attract 9,938 individuals more with 511 manufacturing shops and 1944 service jobs. The population increase will bring 3,550 more houses constructed in the city. Land use will also be affected. More land will be developed. However, road, water plant and waste water plant will not be expanded as much. The city`s financial structure will be expanded, due to the increased revenues from the waste disposal site, and property tax revenues from the middle-class employees of the company, and the high-powered scientists and technologists from the accelerator research center. All in all, the future of the city will be brighter after operating the nuclear waste disposal site inside the city.