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통계학적 관점에서 본 집단적 유해물질 사건에서의 인과관계 법리에 관한 연구 -담배소송(대법원 2014. 4. 10. 선고 2011다22092 판결)을 중심으로
박도현 ( Dohyun Park ),유병수 ( Byeongsu Yu ) 서울대학교 공익인권법센터 2015 공익과 인권 Vol.15 No.-
This paper proposes the legal principle for establishing the legal causation from an epidemiological causation on collective hazardous substances litigations. This principle consists of two criteria; one is for establishing the legally acceptable (collective) epidemiological causation from an epidemiological correlation, and the other is for establishing the (individual) legal causation from an epidemiological causation. With statistics, an individual legal causation can be derived from an epidemiological causation. The Strong Law of Large number justifies the legal causation when plaintiffs are plural. Bayes’ theorem can also rationalize the individual legal causation from an (collective) epidemiological causation. Bayes’ theorem still makes judge be able to compare coexisting epidemiological causations for taking the best plausible causation. Lastly, this paper applies these criteria on real two tobacco litigations in which individual lung cancer patients sued tobacco companies and the National Health Insu ance Service (NHIS) sues them.