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ARDL 모형을 이용한 벌꿀 생산량 감소에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석
황윤미(Yunmi Hwang),용경민(Kyeongmin Yong),김종화(Jonghwa Kim) 한국산학기술학회 2024 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.25 No.1
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 75% of the worlds top 100 crops depend on honeybees for pollination. However, 8,000 of the worlds 20,000 species of wild bees are endangered, and honey production is rapidly decreasing. The number of honeybee colonies decreased by 64,299 in 2020 compared to 2019, and honey production in Korea also decreased by 68,272 tons during the same period . Therefore, there is rising awareness of the crisis in the agricultural sector due to the decrease in the honeybee population. Accordingly, this study attempted to identify the factors affecting the decrease in honey production. For this purpose, we analyzed time series data related to honeybees from 1988 to 2021 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. As a result, it was found that the control area of forest pests and annual honey imports negatively affect honey production in the long run. Moreover, the quantum of honey exports had a negative impact in the short run, but the impact was analyzed to be insufficient. Finally, it was found that the average temperature (between March and August) in the previous year had a positive effect on honey production.