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백승관 ( Seung Gwan Baek ),오용협 ( Yong Hyup Oh ) 한국금융연구원 2010 한국경제의 분석 Vol.16 No.3
After the global financial crisis of 2008, skepticism about the role of the US dollar as a key international currency has come to the fore again. The Chinese government officially announced the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi. Many other countries in the Asia-Pacific region are seeking the international use of their currencies. This paper examines the extent to which the currencies of twelve Asia-Pacific countries meet the preconditions for international and regional currency status. What we find is, first, that the decline in the Japanese yen share in official foreign exchange reserves and in denominating international debt securities is closely associated with the fact that Japan`s financial markets are regulated and not internationalized, and that the relative size of the Japanese economy is decreasing. Second, the international use of the Australian dollar owes much to its financial markets that are unregulated, large and well-developed. But its limited use is mainly due to its small economic size, volatile currency values and deteriorating its net external debtor position. Third, the Hong Kong dollar and the Singapore dollar have the potential to be an international and/or regional currency. Their only weaknesses are that economic sizes are small and debt securities market and banking sector are not relatively internationalized. Fourth, it is premature for the Chinese renminbi to be internationally used. The main reason is that capital is tightly controlled, financial markets are regulated and under-developed, and political risk is high. Fifth, the international use of the Korean won is in its primitive stages and may not be feasible for a while. Korea lags behind international currency countries, Hong Kong and Singapore in all determinants of international currency status except for the activity and efficiency of stock market, country risk and foreign reserve holdings. Finally, it may take a few decades for the international use of the Indian rupee. India`s only advantage is that stock market is large. Otherwise India is far behind major Asia-Pacific countries. One hope is that its economic sizes are rapidly increasing.
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무역구조가 국제 노동분업, 노동수요구조 및 임금격차에 미치는 영향: 한중 산업내무역을 중심으로 / 지정토론 / 일반토론
옥우석 ( Woo Seok Ok ),정세은 ( Se Eun Jeong ),오용협 ( Yong Hyup Oh ),유경준,마재신,신관호,박종규 한국금융연구원 2007 한국경제의 분석 Vol.13 No.3
This paper is an empirical analysis about the impact of international trade on employment and wages, with a focus on the Korea-China trade. We decompose the international trade flows into their three sub-components, inter-industry (IIT), vertical intra-industry (VIIT) and horizontal intra-industry trades (HIIT). Then we discuss their theoretical implications on employment and the skill-demand structure. Our results for the case of Korea-China show that (i) both the VIIT and HIIT affect negatively the number of the employed, (ii) the within-industry changes in skill composition is better explained by the VIIT and HIIT than the import penetration ratio, and (iii) the VIIT has an independent explanatory power, vis-a-vis the ICT expenditure, for the skill composition. The skill-demand structure reacts more sensitively to the VIIT for smaller firms than larger firms, whereas the HIIT has equally strong impacts on the skill demand both in smaller and larger firms.
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