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기후변화에 따른 식생과 토양에 의한 탄소변화량 공간적 분석
이동근 ( Dong Kun Lee ),박찬 ( Chan Park ),오영출 ( Young Chool Oh ) 한국농촌계획학회 2010 농촌계획 Vol.16 No.4
Climate change is known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the terrestrail carbon balance. This paper reports the effects of climate change on spatial-temporal changes in carbon reductions in South Korea`s during 2000-2100. Future carbon (C) stock distributions are simulated for the same period using various spatial data sets including land cover, net primary production(NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) obtained from MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and climate data from Data Assimilation Office(DAO) and Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). This study attempts to predict future NPP using multiple linear regression and to model dependence of soil respiration on soil temperature. Plants store large amounts of carbon during the growing periods. During 2030-2100, Carbon accumulation in vegetation was increased to 566 ~ 610gC/㎡/year owing to climate change. On the other hand, soil respiration is a key ecosystem process that releases carbon from the soil in the form of carbon dioxide. The estimated soil respiration spatially ranged from 49gC/㎡/year to 231gC/㎡/year in the year of 2010, and correlating well with the reference value. This results include Spatial-Temporal C reduction variation caused by climate change. Therefore this results is more comprehensive than previous results. The uncertainty in this study is still large, but it can be reduced if a detailed map becomes available.
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