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한·중 수교 30년 이대로 좋은가? - 기대에서 실망으로 -
연상모 ( Yeon Sang-mo ) 한국외교협회 2022 외교 Vol.142 No.0
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties of Korea and China. The two countries have been accumulating mutual perceptions and actual experiences. However, there is a concern that two countries’ relationship is moving in unhealthy direction. The concern results from the fact that while Korea shows good will toward China, China wants to realize its will by using coercive measures toward Korea. Therefore, the expectations, which the two countries had during the early years of diplomatic ties, turned to disappointment. The fundamental causes are as follows: First, structural differences of two countries’ relationship and wrong expectations toward each other exist. Second, there is an attitude that the two countries are reluctant to face the differences squarely under the framework of a ‘superficial friendship.’ It is the time to analyse and reflect upon the problems the two countries are facing. In this regard, I want to make suggestions. The first thing which we have to do is to clearly recognize that there is structural differences which Korea and China can not resolve easily. We have to find out realistic solutions by recognizing these differences. And it is desirable that the two countries do not have too high expectations each other. The two countries tend to be surprised or be overly angry mutually when they have too high expectations. In conclusion, Korea and China have to build a ‘new framework’ which aims to have a constructive relations by departing from the past attitude which relied on a ‘superficial friendship.’
연상모 ( Yeon Sang-mo ) 한국외교협회 2019 외교 Vol.130 No.0
Forty years have passed since China and Japan normalized their relations in 1972 and signed the Peace and Friendship Treaty in 1978. The two nations’ relations of this period can be divided into two. During the Cold War the relationship can be defined as “stability and improvement”. And after the end of the Cold War it can be defined as “instability and exploration”. This is because during the Cold War there was a common enemy of the Soviet Union, but after the end of the Cold War the Soviet Union disappeared and while China is rising, Japan is pursuing new national identity. In the meantime, due to the disputes over the sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands which took place since 2010, the Sino-Japanese relationship has deteriorated to the worst level since 1972, when the two countries normalized their relations. However, two nations’ relations are improving to a limited extent since Japanese Prime Minister Abe paid an official visit to China in October 2018. Although two nations’ relationship is improving a little recently, it does not appear to be elevated to a honeymoon stage. This is because there is structural issues such as Sino-Japanese historical rivalry and US-Japanese alliance. Therefore, in the near future the relationship will alternate between confrontation and cooperation within a certain limit and probably more confrontation will appear.