아산만권 개발사업의 경제적 타당성분석

엄수원(Eum, Soo Won) 한국부동산학회 2009 不動産學報 Vol.38 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic feasibility of real estate development project. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study was focused on economic feasibility analysis. Especially this study used to the Benefit cost ratio analysis. The study areas include the An-san Bay area (Pyeong-Taek, Po-Seung, Dan-Jin, Song-Ak, Ah-San, In-Ju) out of the West Sea Free Economic Zone. The proposed development schemes are divided into three stages in the development : 2008-2013, 2014-2019, and 2020-2025. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS In the results of this analysis, the most important problem is the absent of the social consensus about measuring criteria of benefit and cost for industrial complex development. 2. RESULTS This study provides the results from a Benefit-Cost analysis and a Sensitivity Analysis on foreign investment. The Key findings indicate good economic feasibility with the B/C of 1.526. The B/C results show the ratio variations from 0.037 to 2.23 corresponding to the foreign investment variations from 5% to 30%. The results also suggest the need to consider the social consensus on the results from B/C analysis of the Asan-Bay Area development project.

국토계획수립을 위한 국토공간구조의 특성 및 변화패턴에 관한 연구

엄수원 (Soo Won Eum) 한국지역사회발전학회 1996 地域社會開發硏究 Vol.21 No.2

N/A

공적개발원조(Official Development Assistance, ODA)사업의 추진실태와 발전방안 - 라오스 새마을운동 사례를 중심으로 -

엄수원 ( Eum Soo-won ) 한국지역사회발전학회(구 한국지역사회개발학회) 2017 地域社會開發硏究 Vol.42 No.2

The Saemaul Movement is being promoted as a part of Korea's Official Development Assistance(ODA) project, led by Korea Saemaul Undong Center and KOICA. The Saemaul Movement in Laos has been piloted in eight villages, many of which have been evaluated as successful. However, due to lack of comprehensive and systematic implementation system at the national level, lack of specialists, labor force and financial resources, the successful implementation results of these pilot projects are not spreading throughout Laos. Laos is not at the stage of introducing the Saemaul Movement Project for the first time, but it is at this stage that these successful case areas should be cultivated and expanded nationwide. Therefore, it is time to establish comprehensive strategies and plans. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current state of Saemaul Movement in Laos and to find out the development plan for the nationwide diffusion of successful cases.

한·미 리츠(REITs)시장 동향과 발전과제

엄수원(Eum, Soo Won) 대한부동산학회 2012 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.30 No.2

Amendment of REITs Act has been made ever since REITs system was introduced into Korea. But there still retains a lot of unreasonable problems in that system. The purpose of this study is to suggest some implications for the REITs system improvement by comparing REITs system and market characteristics in Korea to in U.S. The result of this study suggest various development programs as follows ; corporate tax benefits on self-managed REITs, necessity of UP-REITs introduction, construction of risk management system in development specified REITs, training the professionals in asset management, enlargement of public offering proportion, diversification of investment property.

지방분권시대의 지역균형발전을 위한 정책모형과 과제

엄수원 ( Eum Soo-won ) 한국지역사회발전학회(구 한국지역사회개발학회) 2018 地域社會開發硏究 Vol.43 No.2

This study aims to develop an integrated policy model for regional balanced development in the era of decentralization and to suggest alternatives and implications on the related issues. In order to achieve this goal, this study approaches the literature study method focusing on several issues. First, in a situation where there are various opinions and issues about the two factors of decentralization and regional balanced development, we will examine the theory for linking and convergence of the two factors and build a policy model through them. The constructed research model will provide justification for the roles and functions of central and local governments for various regional balanced development. Second, it is a matter of how to realize decentralization and balanced regional development in any spatial unit (space scale). This has long been the subject of debate, but there is no such social consensus yet. Likewise, this paper is not able to come up with clear conclusions, but it want to provide the key factors and judgment criteria to be considered when discussing this issue. Third, the trend of increasing urbanization rate is a global phenomenon. In reality, however, this is causing the collapse of rural areas. I would like to find an alternative from the viewpoint of how to see this problem and how to find a way to win-win between urban and rural area. Fourth, due to the age of low-birthrate and aging society, the local economy is stagnating and the crisis of depopulation of the local area is being raised. Therefore, what is the way to find the vitality of the area at a time when it is difficult to imagine the reversal of the population increase in the local area is covered by the study.

농촌지역 용도지역제도의 개선방안에 관한 연구

엄수원(Eum, Soo Won),이희옥(Lee, Hee Ok) 한국부동산학회 2020 不動産學報 Vol.81 No.-

우리나라의 농촌지역은 전 국토의 83.3%인 88,496.9㎢를 차지하고 있음에도 불구하고 농촌지역의 특성에 부합하는 체계적 관리는 미흡한 실정이다. 또한 토지이용규제의 지속적인 완화 추세에 개발과 보전의 원칙과 기준이 불분명하여 소규모의 산발적 난 개발로 인한 농촌의 공간구조가 왜곡되어 가고 있다. 용도지역제는 오랫동안 토지이용규제의 근간으로서 운영되어 왔지만, 농촌지역의 토지이용을 효과적으로 관리하기 위하여 용도지역제의 운용실태 및 문제점을 분석하여 개선방안을 제안한다. 첫째, 현행 농림지역은 폐지하고 토지의 특성을 고려하여 농업지역과 산림지역을 신설･운용한다. 둘째, 개발행위허가가 가장 많은 지역으로서 난 개발이 우려되는 현행 계획관리지역을 관리지역으로 명칭 변경하여 개발목적으로 과다 지정된 용도지역을 줄이고 개발과 보전을 조화롭게 한다. 셋째, 지정 목적과 토지이용이 유사한 성격의 보전산지(공익용산지)는 자연환경보전지역으로 통합･운영한다. 넷째, 신설되는 용도지역별 행위제한규정을 마련한다. 한정된 국토자원을 효율적･합리적으로 이용하고 소중한 자연환경을 후대에 물려줄 수 있어야 한다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The zoning system has been operated as a basis for land use regulations for a long time. For effective management of land use in rural areas, this study analyzes the current operational status and problems of the zoning system and proposes improvement measures. (2) RESEARCH METHOD related law review, literature analysis, statistical data analysis. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS First, the current “agricultural and forest areas” should be abolished, and “agricultural areas” and “forest areas” need to be designated and operated according to the land characteristics. Second, the current plan management areas where thoughtless development is anticipated and the most development approvals have been granted should be renamed as management areas to reduce the number of areas for development purposes, which is too many now, and balance development and reservation. Third, conservation areas(areas for public interest) having a similar purpose and land use should be integrated into nature conservation areas. Fourth, it is required to develop regulations to restrict activities for each of the new special-purpose areas. 2. RESULTS We should be able to use limited national land resources efficiently and reasonably to pass on the precious natural environment to future generations.

부동산 프로젝트 파이낸싱의 실패요인에 관한 연구

이봉철(Lee, Bong-Cheol),엄수원(Eum, Soo-Won) 대한부동산학회 2012 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.30 No.1

본 연구는 금융기관의 PF 심사보고서를 이용하여, 2005년부터 현재까지 수도권 내에서 진행된 주택 개발사업 중 연체가 이루어지거나 중단된 사업에 대한 실패요인을 분석하였다. 선행연구에서 주로 지적하는 리스크 요인을 토대로 체크리스트를 구축하고, 총 12개의 사례를 검토하여 실패요인 및 이를 토대로 프로젝트 파이낸싱의 문제점을 분석하였으며, 이에 대한 개선방안을 제시하였다. 실패를 가져온 문제요인은 크게 5가지로, 시행사 및 시공사 등 거래대상에 대한 판단 문제, 사업성 분석 문제, 투자회수계획 수립 문제, 토지확보, 인허가 등의 절차상 리스크, 정책 및 경기 변화 등 분양성 리스크 등이 해당되 었다. 결론적으로, 수익성 평가에 근간한 프로젝트 파이낸싱이 아닌, 시공사의 신용공여 및 담보에 의존하는 변질된 구조의 대출이 이루어짐에 따른 여러 가지 문제들이 파생되는 것으로 나타났다. 이를 개선하기 위해 객관적이고 전문적인 사업성 평가기관 설립 등 프로젝트 파이낸싱의 기본 개념에 충실하기 위한 법적·제도적 장치가 마련하고, 이를 바탕으로 시행사의 규모 확대, PF 참여주체간의 균형있는 리스크 분담 등 선순환 구조를 만들어야 한다고 제언한다. Using the examination reports from financial agencies, this study analyzed failure factors of suspended housing development projects in the Metropolitan area since 2005. We established check list on the basis of risk factors from the preceding studies, analyzed failure factors of the twelve cases, and suggested improvement strategies. The failure factors included assessment to business partners including developers and constructors; feasibility study; loan withdrawal plan; procedural risks such as land security or administrative procedure; and marketability issues. In conclusion, various problems were derived from degeneration of financing structure in which financing decisions were determined by not profitability but constructor s credit. This study suggested that legal and institutional supports were needed to follow the basic concept of project financing such as the establishment of agency for objective profitability assessment and to create virtuous circle of real estate development project financing.

국가산업단지 입주기업 만족도에 관한 연구

한돈근(Han, Don Kuen),엄수원(Eum, Soo Won) 대한부동산학회 2015 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.33 No.1

우리나라 산업단지 개발은 1962년 경제개발5개년 개발에 의한 중공업화 전략을 추구하면서 조성되기 시작하였으며, IT등 기술의 전환으로 인하여 2000년대에는 도시첨단도시산업단지 등이 조성되기 시작하였다. 특히, 반월특수지역은 서해안 공업벨트를 구축하기 위하여 1978년부터 지정된 국가산업단지로서 초기 개발년도부터 30여년이 경과한 산업단지가 되었다. 본 연구에서는 반월특수지역내에 속한 반월국가산업단지, 시화국가산업단지에 대한 만족도 조사를 통하여 산업구조 및 사회 환경의 변화에 따른 기반시설의 확충/보완에 필요한 요소를 찾고 이를 통해 개선 과제를 도출하여 새로운 국가산업단지로서의 발전 방향성 제시를 모색하고자 하였다. 분석결과 산업단지 내 만족도에 영향을 주는 변인은 공원 및 녹지지역, 주차장 요소, 경제적 요소, 기반 시설 등의 요인들이 유의성이 나타났으며, 지원시설, 경제적 요소는 추천의도에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 만족도가 높아질수록 추천 의도는 매우 높아짐을 구조방정식 경로분석을 통해 검증하였다. 향후 연구에서는 산업단지 내 개선점 보완 후 추적조사를 통한 만족도 변화측정 만족도에 대한 연구와 산업단지내 우선순위 정책 지원에 대한 다양한 조사 대상과 내용을 포함하는 연구가 진행되어야 할 것으로 판단된다. Industrial complex of Korea was developed since the start-up with the Five-year Economic Development Plan of 1962, which was focused on heavy industrialization, and Hi-Technology Industrial Complex has been developed since 2000s. Thus, Banwol Special Area has been developed for 30 years as an industrial complex since 1978, and this complex has been built for West Coast Industrial belt. Here I am to study satisfaction upon Banwol National Industry Complex of Banwol Special Area, Shihwa National Industrial Complex, while seeking necessities of expansion and supplement of infrastructure according to the change of industrial structure and social environment, and to propose direction of new national industry complex. As a result, parameter of satisfaction in the industrial complex shows significance relation among park, green area, garage, economic factor, infrastructure and etc., and supporting facilities factor and economic factor has been affecting into recommend purpose. Moreover, this study throughout path analysis verifies “as satisfaction is being higher, recommend purpose is being higher.”

경제변수와 비정형데이터의 검색빈도가 아파트시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

이승규 ( Lee Seung-gyu ),엄수원 ( Eum Soo-won ) 한국지역사회발전학회(구 한국지역사회개발학회) 2019 地域社會開發硏究 Vol.44 No.1

For this study, macroeconomic variables and real estate related indicators were collected during the same period based on the search frequency, which is unstructured data. The analysis period was selected from April 2016 to March 2019, reflecting the recent nature of the data. The multivariate time series methodology was applied to the analysis. The unit root test was performed to verify the stability of the variables, and prevented the occurrence of pseudo regression in the prediction. As a result of unit root test, raw data of industrial production index and search frequency showed stability. The remaining variables stabilize the data over the first difference. In this study, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate and the amount of money have a direct effect on apartment market, but real estate consumer confidence index and search frequency have indirect effects on apartment market. The indirect effect of the search frequency on the apartment market can be utilized in future analysis of consumer activities in social media, analysis and forecast of market environment, and government policy. In addition to the macroeconomic variables, variables affecting the price of the apartment market and Chonsei price are various factors such as real estate tax and government policy. Especially, according to the government policies such as the transaction tax and the holding tax, the patterns of apartment owners and the frequency of transactions can be changed, so that the research from various perspectives should be started. This limitation will be left as future research task.

델파이분석을 통한 부동산개발사업 프로젝트 파이낸싱의 리스크 요인에 관한 연구

이봉철(Lee, Bong Cheol),엄수원(Eum, Soo Won) 한국부동산학회 2012 不動産學報 Vol.51 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES Real estate project financing of Korea has rapidly grown in a booming stage of construction industry. However, rapid growth of project financing not being accompanied by development of feasibility study or institutional supports have caused negative effects such as reckless loan and insolvent lenders. The objectives of this study are to analyze risk factors of project financing in real estate development. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study try to deduce consensual opinions of professional group on risk factors of each participant of project financing, controversial points and development strategies of project financing in Korea. I conducted Delphi method by professional group in order to make sense of consensus about risk factors of project financing in Korea. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS In the result of this study, the largest issues on project financing are a weak fund-raising ability and professionalism of real estate developer and disproportion in risk sharing. 2. RESULTS The risk factors included as follows; assessment to business partners including developers and constructors, feasibility study, loan withdrawal plan, procedural risks such as land security or administrative procedure, and marketability issues. Professionals who participated in delphi survey picked “marketability issues” as the most important risk factor which could bea risk factor of project financing. In conclusion, various problems were derived from degeneration of financing structure in which financing decisions were determined by not profitability but constructor’s credit. This study suggested that legal and institutional supports were needed to follow the basic concept of project financing such as the establishment of agency for objective profitability assessment and to create virtuous circle of project financing for real estate development.