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패널연립방정식 모델을 이용한 유럽연합(EU)의 대외원조(Foreign Aids)가 아프리카 민주주의에 미치는 영향분석
신정섭,김성수 한국유럽학회 2017 유럽연구 Vol.35 No.1
This study explores the effects of foreign aids of European Union(EU) that is the biggest donor to Africa on democracy in African countries. Specifically, this study examines whether the foreign aids of EU before and after the Cotonou Agreement that emphasizes democratic conditionality in 2000 have a different impact on democratic development of African countries. For this analysis, this study examines the relationship between Official Development Assistance(ODA) received from EU and Freedom House Democracy Index in 46 African countries from 1973 to 2014 by employing panel simultaneous equation model. The results show that there is a statistically positive correlation between ODA received from EU and democracy in African countries after 2000 but no correlation before 2000. This result implies that EU’s democracy conditionality forces political leaders to promote democratic conditions in African countries that are economically dependent on EU’s ODA. 본 글은 아프리카 지역에 대한 가장 큰 공여 기구인 EU의 아프리카 국가들에 대한 대외원조가 아프리카 국가들의 민주주의 발전에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지를 살펴보려 한다. 구체적으로 본 글은 EU가 2000년의 코토누 협정(the Cotonou Agreement)을 통하여 대외원조에 있어 민주주의 조건부 조항을 강화하였기에, 이러한 민주주의 조건부 강화가 있었던 2000년 이후의 EU의 아프리카에 대한 대외원조가, 그 이전의 약한 민주주의 조건부 조항이 있었을 때 보다 아프리카 민주주의 발전에 더 큰 긍정적 영향력을 실제로 미쳤는지에 대해서 비교하여 분석한다. 이러한 분석을 위하여, 본 글은 1973년부터 2014년까지 46개 아프리카 국가들이 EU로부터 받은 공적개발원조의 증감과 아프리카 각국의 프리덤 하우스(Freedom House)가 발표하는 민주주의 지표의 증감이 서로 어떠한 관계를 가지는 가를 패널연립방정식모델(panel simultaneous equation model)에 기초하여 분석한다. 분석결과에 따르면 2001년 이후 EU의 공적개발원조의 증가는 아프리카 국가들의 민주주의 지표의 증가와 양적인 상관관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 2001년 이전에는 EU의 공적개발원조의 증가와 아프리카 국가들의 민주주의 지표의 증가 사이에 통계적으로 유의미한 상관관계가 나타나지 않았다. 이러한 결과는 경제에 있어 상당부분을 EU의 대외원조에 의존하는 아프리카 국가들에 있어, EU의 민주주의 조건부 대외원조 정책이 아프리카 국가들의 정치인들과 집권자들에게 민주주의 발전을 위한 실제적인 압력을 행사하고 있다는 것을 의미한다고 생각해 볼 수 있다. 더욱이, 본 논문의 결과는 민주주의 조건부 대외원조가 권위주의 체제의 지도자들에게 민주주의 발전을 위한 최소한의 노력을 강제하는 효과가 있다는 것을 보여준다고 하겠다.
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신정섭,정석현,조병옥,강선홍,박병만,윤준재 대한상하수도학회 2018 상하수도학회지 Vol.32 No.2
For performance analysis of flood prevention projects, this study performed simulation (SWMM) for the five sites where the projects have been completed. The models were constructed using watershed and sewer information of the project sites and were verified using flood records in the past to improve accuracy. In this simulation, the design rainfall data (probability 30~50 years) and the rainfall data in the summer of 2017 were applied. When the design rainfall data was applied to the models, simulation results presented that all the sites were flooded before the projects, but after the projects all the sites were not flooded due to improve discharge capacity. And when the rainfall data in the summer of 2017 was applied to the models, simulation results presented that all the sites were flooded before the projects, but after the projects any sites did not occur flooding in this summer. So if the projects had not been completed, all the sites might be flooded in the summer of 2017. These effects were analyzed as the improvement of discharge capacity due to rehabilitation of sewer, construction of underground tunnel and pumping station, etc. As the results, ratio of sewer that water depth exceed diameter reduced from 52.3~75.8% to 17.1~39.8%.
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선삼 투여가 중선량 X-선을 조사한 마우스에서조혈면역계 및 간장 독성에 미치는 방호효과
신정섭,김영철 환경독성보건학회 2007 환경독성보건학회지 Vol.22 No.2
Six week-old ICR mice were divided into four groups including NC, RC, RR and RS, then they were inject-ed with sun ginseng(RS), red ginseng(RR) and saline(RC) intraperitoneally as an amount of 60mg/kg bodyweight at 1 hour, 12 hours and 36 hours before the whole body irradiation with 6.5Gy of X-ray. And the micewere sacrificed at nine days after the irradiation. The RS group were significant increase in the weight of spleen (p0.05) and the numbers of endogenousspleen colony (p0.001) and WBC (p0.05) especially neutrophils, lymphocytes and monocytes in compari-son with the RC group. The RR group were significant increase in the numbers of endogenous spleen colony(p0.01) and WBC (p0.05) especially neutrophils, lymphocytes and eosinophils in comparison with the RCgroup. The RS group exhibited a more increase in the weight of spleen and the number of endogenous spleencolony than the RR group. The values of ALT (alanine transaminase) and AST (aspartate transaminase) weresignificantly elevated (p0.05) by radiation and they were significantly decreased (p0.05) in the RS groupto the values of the NC group. The value of TBARS(thiobarbituric acid reactive substance) was significantlyelevated (p0.01) by radiation and it was significantly decreased (p0.05) in the RS group. And the values ofSOD (superoxide dismutase) and CAT (catalase) were significantly increased (p0.05) in the RS group incomparison with the RC group.Taken together the above results, sun ginseng demonstrated the protective effects on hepatocytes and immuneand hematopoietic cells in mice exposed to medium dose of irradiation, and those radioprotective effects werea little higher or similar to the red ginseng.
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불완전 분류식 하수처리구역의 강우에 의한 하수도시설의 침입수/유입수 영향 분석
신정섭,강선홍,한상원,육준수,이춘구 대한상하수도학회 2019 상하수도학회지 Vol.33 No.3
The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of sewerage facilities through I/I analysis by rainfall by selecting areas where storm overflow diverging chamber is remained due to the non-maintenance drainage equipment when the sewerage system was reconstructed as a separate sewer system. Research has shown that wet weather flow(WWF) increased from 106.2% to 154.8% compared to dry weather flow(DWF) in intercepting sewers, and that the WWF increased from 122.4% to 257.6% in comparison to DWF in storm overflow diverging chamber. As a result, owing to storm overflow diverging chamber of partially separate sewer system with untreated tributary of sewage treatment plant, rainfall-derived infiltration/inflow(RDII) has been analyzed 2.7 times higher than the areas without storm overflow diverging chamber. Meanwhile, infiltration quantity of this study area was relatively higher than that of other study areas. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce infiltration quantity through sewer pipe maintenance nearby river. Drainage equipment maintenance should be performed not to operate storm overflow diverging chamber in order to handle the appropriate sewage treatment plant capacity for rainfall because it is also expected that RDII due to rain will occur after maintenance. In conclusion, it is necessary to recognize aRDII(allowance of rainfall-derived infiltration/inflow) and to be reflected it on sewage treatment plant capacity because aRDII can occur even after maintenance to the complete separate sewer system.
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