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Mann-Kendall 검정을 이용한 안동댐 유역 강우량의 경향 분석
신사철(Sha Chul Shin) 위기관리 이론과 실천 2020 Crisisonomy Vol.16 No.3
강우량은 홍수 예방 및 가뭄 관리를 비롯한 수자원의 효과적인 관리를 위해 무엇보다 중요하다. 더욱이 기후변화의 영향으로 장래 수자원의 변동은 인간 생활에 매우 심각한 영향을 미칠 것으로예측되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 안동댐 유역에 대한 42년간(1977~2018년)의 연강우량, 월강우량 및월 최대강우량에 대한 경향분석을 실시하였다. 통계방법에는 모수적 검정과 비모수적 검정이 있다. 강우량과 같이 특정 확률분포를 따른다고 전제할 수 없는 경우 비모수적 검정을 사용한다. 따라서본 연구에서는 비모수적 방법 중 강우량 추세분석을 위해 널리 사용되는 Mann-Kendall 검정 방법을사용하였다. Mann-Kendall 검정 결과 유의수준 5%(0.05) 이내로 10월강우량과 7월 최대강우량은 증가경향이 확인되었다. 또한 유의수준 10% 이내에서 8월 최대강우량은 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 특정 유역에서 발생하는 물부족과 홍수관리를 비롯한 수자원관리의 장기적 계획을 수립하고자 할 때 매우 유용할 것으로 생각된다. Rainfall has become a primary concern for flood control and effective water resources management. It is predicted that the reduction of available water resources due to climate change will exert a severe influence on human life. This study conducted a trend analysis on the annual rainfall, monthly rainfall, and monthly maximum rainfall at Andong Dam basin for 42 years from 1977 to 2018. Statistical hypothesis tests were performed by a nonparametric test because the rainfall data do not follow a particular probability distribution. This study utilized the Mann-Kendall test, one of the commonly used nonparametric testing methods, in order to analyze the rainfall trend variations. It is confirmed that the October rainfall and July maximum rainfall show an increasing trend according to the 5% confidence level. In addition, the August maximum rainfall reveals a decreasing trend according to the 10% confidence level.
신사철 ( Sha Chul Shin ),안태용 ( Tae Young An ) 한국지리정보학회 2007 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.10 No.2
One of the most important hydrologic components is evapotranspiration. It is a process by which water is evaporated from moist land surfaces and transpired into atmosphere by plants. There are many methods of estimating evapotranspiration rate and its potential such as the methods of soil-moisture sampling, lysimeter measurements, water balance, energy balance, groundwater fluctuations and evapotranspiration. But it is very difficult to estimate evapotranspiration in terms of regional discrete characteristics of topography and/or vegetation. The evapotranspiration is strongly affected by ground covering vegetation, and the degree of vegetation growth. In order to grasp vegetation condition over a vast study area, NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices) calculated from the data obtained from NOAA/AVHRR were utilized. Through multi-regression analysis, we developed a model equation to estimate the evapotranspiration using NDVIs and temperature data.
신사철 ( Sha Chul Shin ),안태용 ( Tae Young An ) 한국지리정보학회 2004 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.7 No.3
Remote sensing technique is a probable means to estimate distribution of actual evapotranspiration in connection with regional characteristics of vegetation and landuse. The factors controlling evapotranspiration from ground surface are air temperature, humidity, wind, radiation, soil moisture and so on. Not only the vegetation influences directly the evapotranspiration, but also these factors strongly influences the vegetation growth at the area. Therefore, it can be expected that evapotranspiration is highly correlated to vegetation condition. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed excellent ability to get the vegetation information. The NDVI is obtained using NOAA/AVHRR have been studied as a tool for vegetation monitoring. In this paper, a simple method to estimate actual avapotranspiration is proposed based on vegetation and meteorological data.
신사철 ( Sha Chul Shin ),김성준 ( Seong Joon Kim ),채효석 ( Hyo Sok Chae ),권기량 ( Gi Ryang Kwon ),이윤아 ( Yun Ah Lee ) 한국지리정보학회 2002 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.5 No.3
The water resources information system of a watershed should be set up to understand the water management problems with reflecting basin characteristics for the effective water use. This study is to develop a watershed management system to be operated in water resources and water quality management. In order to promote effective utilization of this system, the various kinds of information data are collected, and this system could be utilized as a valuable tool for maximum uses of them. The information system developed in this study is constructed with GUI(graphic user interface) system using Arc-View and Visual Basic at the circumstances based on the PC. The integrated GIS and Remote Sensing based system is directed to the need for more detailed information on watershed management. The ability to present system clearly provides an indispensable tool for a river basin development and water management plan.