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변영화(Young-Hwa Byun),송지혜(Jee-Hye Song),박수희(Suhee Park),임한철(Han-Chul Lim) 한국기상학회 2007 대기 Vol.17 No.1
The purpose of this study is to investigate predictability of the seasonal simulation by the METRI (Meteorological Research Institute) AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model), which is a long-term prediction model for the METRI 3-month prediction system. We examine the performance skill of climate simulation and predictability by the analysis of variance of the METRI AGCM, focusing on the precipitation, 850 hPa temperature, and 500 hPa geopotential height. According to the result, the METRI AGCM shows systematic errors with seasonal march, and represents large errors over the equatorial region, compared to the observation. Also, the response of the METRI AGCM by the variation of the sea surface temperature is obvious for the wintertime and springtime. However, the METRI AGCM does not show the significant ENSO-related signal in autumn. In case of prediction over the east Asian region, errors between the prediction results and the observation are not quite large with the lead-time. However, in the predictability assessment using the analysis of variance method, longer lead-time makes the prediction better, and the predictability becomes better in the springtime.
임한철(Han-Cheol Lim),변영화(Young-Hwa Byun),권원태(Won-Tae Kwon),전종갑(Jong-Ghap Jhun) 한국기상학회 2008 대기 Vol.18 No.1
This study provides an impact assessment of climate change on energy consumption, based on ‘active-deal scenario'. This approach assumes that the amount of electric energy consumption depends on human spontaneous acts against local temperature change. In this study, a statistical model for estimation of the Residential Electric Energy Consumption (REEC) has been developed by using monthly mean temperature and monthly amount of electric energy consumption in the 6 major cities over the 1999-2005 period. The statistical model is utilized to estimate the past and future REEC, and to assess the economic benefits and damage in energy consumption sector. For an estimation of the future REEC, climate change scenario, which is generated by National Institute of Meteorological Research, is utilized in this study. According to the model, it is estimated that over the standard period (1999~2005), there might be economic benefits of about 31 billion Won/year in Seoul due to increasing temperature than in the 1980s. The REEC is also predicted to be gradually reduced across the Korean peninsula since the 2020s. These results suggest that Korea will gain economic benefits in the REEC sector during the 21st century as temperature increases under global warming scenarios.
METRI AGCM의 복사 모수화 개선에 따른 겨울철 기후모의의 특징적 변화
임한철(Han-Cheol Lim),변영화(Young-Hwa Byun),박수희(Suhee Park),권원태(Won-Tae Kwon) 한국기상학회 2009 대기 Vol.19 No.2
This study investigates characteristics of wintertime simulation conducted by METRI AGCM utilizing new radiation parameterization scheme. New radiation scheme is based on the method of Chou et al., and is utilized in the METRI AGCM recently. In order to analyze characteristics of seasonal simulation in boreal winter, hindcast dataset from 1979 to 2005 is produced in two experiments - control run (CTRL) and new model's run (RADI). Also, changes in performance skill and predictability due to implementation of new radiation scheme are examined. In the wintertime simulation, the RADI experiment tends to reduce warm bias in the upper troposphere probably due to intensification of longwave radiative cooling over the whole troposphere. The radiative cooling effect is related to weakening of longitudinal temperature gradient, leading to weaker tropospheric jet in the upper troposphere. In addition, changes in vertical thermodynamic structure have an influence on reduction of tropical precipitation. Moreover, the RADI case is less sensitive to variation of tropical sea surface temperature than the CTRL case, even though the RADI case simulates the mean climate pattern well. It implies that the RADI run does not have significant improvement in seasonal prediction point of view.
지역기후모델을 이용한 상세계절예측시스템 구축 및 겨울철 예측성 검증
김문현(Moon-Hyun Kim),강현석(Hyun-Suk Kang),변영화(Young-Hwa Byun),박수희(Suhee Park),권원태(Won-Tae Kwon) 한국기상학회 2011 대기 Vol.21 No.1
A dynamical downscaling system for seasonal forecast has been constructed based on a regional climate model, and its predictability was investigated for 10 years' wintertime (December-January-February; DJF) climatology in East Asia. Initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the operational seasonal forecasting data, which are realtime output of the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Sea surface temperature was also obtained from the operational forecasts, i.e., KMA El-Nino and Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecast System. In order to determine the better configuration of the regional climate model for East Asian regions, two sensitivity experiments were carried out for one winter season (97/98 DJF): One is for the topography blending and the other is for the cumulus parameterization scheme. After determining the proper configuration, the predictability of the regional forecasting system was validated with respect to 850 h㎩ temperature and precipitation. The results showed that mean fields error and other verification statistics were generally decreased compared to GDAPS, most evident in 500 h㎩ geopotential heights. These improved simulation affected season prediction, and then HSS was better 36% and 11% about 850 h㎩ temperature and precipitation, respectively.
허태경(Tae-Kyung Heo),김영미(Youngmi Kim),부경온(Kyung-On Boo),변영화(Young-Hwa Byun),조천호(Chunho Cho) 한국기상학회 2018 대기 Vol.28 No.1
This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.
2014년 계절예측시스템과 중기예측모델의 예측성능 비교 및 검증
이상민(Sang-Min Lee),강현석(Hyun-Suk Kang),김연희(Yeon-Hee Kim),변영화(Young-Hwa Byun),조천호(ChunHo Cho) 한국기상학회 2016 대기 Vol.26 No.1
The comparison of prediction errors in geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation forecasts is made quantitatively to evaluate medium-range forecast skills between Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and Unified Model (UM) in operation by Korea Meteorological Administration during 2014. In addition, the performances in prediction of sea surface temperature anomaly in NINO3.4 region, Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, and tropical storms in western north Pacific are evaluated. The result of evaluations appears that the forecast skill of UM with lower values of root-mean square error is generally superior to GloSea5 during forecast periods (0 to 12 days). The forecast error tends to increase rapidly in GloSea5 during the first half of the forecast period, and then it shows down so that the skill difference between UM and GloSea5 becomes negligible as the forecast time increases. Precipitation forecast of GloSea5 is not as bad as expected and the skill is comparable to that of UM during 10-day forecasts. Especially, in predictions of sea surface temperature in NINO3.4 region, MJO index, and tropical storms in western Pacific, GloSea5 shows similar or better performance than UM. Throughout comparison of forecast skills for main meteorological elements and weather extremes during medium-range, the effects of initial and model errors in atmosphere- ocean coupled model are verified and it is suggested that GloSea5 is useful system for not only seasonal forecasts but also short- and medium-range forecasts.
CMIP5 모델에 나타난 동아시아 여름몬순의 모의 성능평가와 미래변화
권상훈(Sang-Hoon Kwon ),부경온(Kyung-On Boo),심성보(Sungbo Shim),변영화(Young-Hwa Byun) 한국기상학회 2017 대기 Vol.27 No.2
This study evaluates CMIP5 model performance on rainy season evolution in the East Asian summer monsoon. Historical (1986~2005) simulation is analyzed using ensemble mean of CMIP5 19 models. Simulated rainfall amount is underestimated than the observed and onset and termination of rainy season are earlier in the simulation. Compared with evolution timing, duration of the rainy season is uncertain with large model spread. This area-averaged analysis results mix relative differences among the models. All model show similarity in the underestimated rainfall, but there are quite large difference in dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The model difference is shown in horizontal distribution analysis. BEST and WORST group is selected based on skill score. BEST shows better performance in northward movement of the rain band, summer monsoon domain. Especially, meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature and low-level circulation for evolving frontal system is quite well captured in BEST. According to RCP8.5, CMIP5 projects earlier onset, delayed termination and longer duration of the rainy season with increasing rainfall amount at the end of 21st century. BEST and WORST shows similar projection for the rainy season evolution timing, meanwhile there are large discrepancy in thermodynamic structure. BEST and WORST in future projection are different in moisture flux, vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature and the subsequent unstable changes in the conditional instability.