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북서태평양 태풍 진로의 계절예측시스템 자동화 구축 및 조기 예측성의 검증
진천실(Chun-Sil Jin),허창회(Chang-Hoi Ho),박두선(Doo-Sun R. Park),최우석(Woosuk Choi),김다솔(Dasol Kim),이종호(Jong-Ho Lee),장기호(Ki-Ho Chang),강기룡(Ki-Ryong Kang) 한국기상학회 2014 대기 Vol.24 No.1
The automated prediction system for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity is established at the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) to provide effective operation and control of the system for user who lacks knowledge of the system. For automation of the system, two procedures which include subjective decisions by user are performed in advance, and their output data are provided as input data. To provide the capability to understand the operational processes for operational user, the input and output data are summarized with each process, and the directory structure is reconstructed following KMA’s standard. We introduce a user interface using namelist input parameters to effectively control operational conditions which is fixed or should be manually set in the previous version of the prediction system. To operationally use early prediction which become available through the automation, its performances are evaluated according to initial condition dates. As a result, high correlations between the observed and predicted TC counts are kept for all track clusters even though advancing the initial condition date from May to January.