미국의 군사력 감축과 아시아·태평양지역의 재래식 군사력-총량평가

문정인,문상균 한국전략문제연구소 1995 전략연구 Vol.2 No.1

[2018년 남북관계, 전망과 과제] “한·미는 북한과 소통채널을 열고 특사 보내야”

문정인 르몽드코리아 2018 르몽드 디플로마티크 Vol.- No.112

촛불민심이 일궈낸 한국정치의 기적. 그것은 바로 문재인 정부의 출범이었다. 적폐청산과 새로운 대한민국의 미래건설이 새 정부의 역사적 소명이 돼야 하는 이유다. 그 중에서도, 수구정권 9년 간 망가진 남북관계를 복원하고 평화와 번영의 한반도를 만들라는 국민의 명령은 최우선적 과제라 하지 않을 수 없다. 이 같은 민심을 반영해, 문재인 대통령도 남북관계 복원을 통해 한미·북미·한중·북중 관계의 선순환 구조를 이뤄내고, 평화와 번영의 한반도 경제공동체를 구축하겠다는 의지를 누차 표명한 바 있다. 이런 의지 표명은 지난 7월 6일, 문 대통령의 베를린 구상에서 명시적으로 나타난 바 있다. “북한에 대한 적대적 의도가 없으며, 북의 체제변화나 흡수통일을 추구하지 않을 뿐 아니라 북한과의 관계개선을 희망한다”는 발언이 이를 압축해 준다. 이 연장 선상에서 문재인 정부는 지난 7월 하순, 이산가족 재상봉을 포함한 인도적 현안을 다루기 위한 적십자회담과 군사분계선에서의 우발적 충돌을 방지하기 위한 군사회담을 제의했다. 그리고 이후에도 북한에 대한 화해와 협력의 메시지를 지속해서 던져 왔던 것이다.

북한체제와 한반도 안정

문정인 한국전략문제연구소 1998 전략연구 Vol.5 No.1

Since late 1980s, the international system has undergone a profound transformation. The dissolution of the Soviet Union not only brought about major political realignments in Europe including the German unification, but also precipitated the end of the Cold War bipolarity. The demise of the Cold War was followed by an elated anticipation on peaceful resolution of the Korean conflict and national reunification among Koreans precisely because the Korean division and conflict were a product of the Cold War hegemonic rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. But such anticipation has been soon shattered, and military confrontation on the Korean peninsula remains as tense as before. Despite its Cold War origin, the Korean conflict has evolved into its own peculiar dynamics. If the international system is less effectual in shaping the nature of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, what else would serve as critical variables? This article argues that the most critical variable in predicting the dynamics of the Korean politics is domestic politics in both Koreas and impacts on inter-Korean relations. Especially, changes in North Korean domestic politics are likely to serve as the most important factor in affecting the future course of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. Against this backdrop, the article delineates four scenarios of political changes in the North and traces how each scenario would influence peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. The first scenario involves a sequence of a sudden collapse of North Korea and unification by absorption in South Korean terms. The 'big bang' scenario can entail short-term trauma and instability, but can ensure long-term stability and peace by consolidating the process of unification. One caveat is in order, however, Reunification and the rise of unified Korea as a middle power can cause counter-balances by regional powers, undermining long-term stability. The second one is a 'scapegoat' scenario. Increasing internal insecurity, coupled with factional struggle among ruling elite, especially the military, the Kim Jong Il regime can undertake military provocation on the South. In this case, short-term instability associated with military conflict will arise, but in the long run, South Korea, in cooperation with its allies, will be able to topple the North Korean regime and to foster the process of unification as well as to ensure peace and stability in Korea. This scenario is also predicated on enormous short-term instability and trauma. The third scenario involves stability through international trusteeship of North Korea. The scenario assumes a sequence of division within the ruling circle, proliferation of civil unrest, and the deepening of protracted civil war in the North. Under this circumstance, as in the case of Lebanon or Yugoslavia, warring Korth Korean factions could ask intervention of the United Nations or major powers such as the United States and/or China in the form of international peacekeeping forces. In this case, instability can be confined to North Korea, but prolonged international trusteeship could block chances for Korean unification. The last one is an 'incremental' scenario. The scenario assumes soft-landing of North Korea through open door and reforms, improved inter- Korean relations, and the consolidation of peaceful co-existence on the Korean peninsula. It favors status quo over any drastic changes in inter-Korean relations. It is also assumed that Korean unification would come through negotiations and consensus rather than Korean unification would corne through negotiations and consensus rather than through big bang or military conflicts. In sum, the article draws a conclusion that the most feasible and desirable scenario for stability and peace on the Korean peninsula is the incremental change in North Korea. Sudden political changes in the North can cause acute short-term instabilities on the Korean peninsula. It is, thus, strongly urged for both South Korea and regional powers to undertake measures that can not only foster gradual political and economic changes in the North, but also break the protracted statemate between two Koreas.

국제정치학의 수용과 변용

문정인,니시노 준야 고려대학교 아세아문제연구소 2007 한일공동연구총서 Vol.2007 No.9

The effects of storytelling and storysinging on L2 reading comprehension

문정인,맹은경 한국초등영어교육학회 2012 초등영어교육 Vol.18 No.2

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of storytelling and storysinging on elementary school students’ reading comprehension. Forty Korean elementary school students participated in this study. PELT Jr and interviews were used to collect the data. For data analysis independent sample t-test, paired t-test, and transcribed qualitative data were used. The results of this study were as followings; 1) There is no significant difference in L2 reading comprehension between the storytelling group and the storysinging group. However, the storytelling group showed an improvement statistically in reading comprehension tests whereas the storysinging group did not. 2) Students in both groups had developed more positive attitude in learning English. They were happy and comfortable during the lessons and their motivation was enhanced to read further outside the class. On the other hand, students in storysinging group had a little difficulty in learning new melodies, rhythms and beats. It seemed that this type of attitude indirectly affected the results of the post-test in the storysinging group’s reading comprehension. The results of the study imply that teachers should also be aware of students’ personalities and the amount of lesson contents when implementing storysinging in primary English classes.

물리·화학적 표면개질에 따른 PVDF 중공사막의 성능 향상

문정인,이용택 한국공업화학회 2016 한국공업화학회 연구논문 초록집 Vol.2016 No.1

수처리용 분리막에 대표적으로 사용되는 polyvinylidene fluoride(PVDF)는 우수한 내화학성과 기계적 강도를 가지지만, 소수성 고분자로서 투과도가 낮으며 유기물질이 쉽게 흡착되는 오염이 쉽게 발생하여 막 성능을 감소시킨다. 이를 개선하기 위해 PVDF 중공사막에 연신공정과 동시에 glutaaldehyde(GA)으로 가교시킨 poly(vinyl alcohol)(PVA)으로 개질시켜 PVDF중공사막에 친수성기를 도입해 내오염성을 향상시키고자 하였다. 물리·화학적 개질 여부를 확인하기 위해 FE-SEM, XRD, FT-IR를 측정하였고 수투과도와 내오염성 향상을 확인하였다.

Democratic Transition, Persistent Civilian Control over the Military, and the South Korean Anomaly

문정인,류상영 서울대학교행정대학원 2011 Asian Journal of Political Science Vol.19 No.3

South Korea’s civilian control over the military has been amazingly stable, and no signsof political moves by the military have ever been detected since 1993. Given the frequencyof military’s intervention in civil politics and a relatively long duration of military rule,such civil-military relations seem quite anomalous. The article argues that the persistentcivilian control over the military was an outcome of path-dependency of the military rulethat disfavours military intervention in civil politics, while strengthening civilian controlover the military. In South Korea, the military did not intervene in civilian politics as aninstitution. Two military interventions (1961 and 1979) were nothing but greedy acts ofpolitically motivated military officers, and those who seized political power craftedinstitutional arrangements that could prevent another military intervention. Consequently,the military in South Korea was highly de-politicized, and path dependency hasproduced a structure rather favourable to civilian control over the military in the postdemocratictransition period. Sanctioning and monitoring deserve special attention inthis regard. Finally, socio-economic development and overall democratic maturity haveled to the popular rejection of the military as a political actor, fostering the norm oftraditional professionalism within the military

1997년 한국의 경제위기와 민주주의

문정인 전남대학교 아시아태평양지역연구소 1998 아시아태평양지역연구 Vol.1 No.1

정치체제와 경제발전의 상관관계는 정치경제분야의 지속적인 관심대상이 되어 왔다. 전통적 서구 시각은 자유민주주의와 자본주의 경제발전간의 순기능을 강조해 왔는가 하면, 최근 동아시아 경제 발전 궤적에 기초한 개발국가론은 그 역의 논리를 전개해왔다. 본 논문은 이 양자간의 관계를 한국의 경제위기라는 경험적 사례 분석을 통해 재규명해 보는데 주목적이 있다. 분석 결과 한국경제의 위기는 국제 경쟁력 약화, 방만한 기업 경영, 그리고 도덕적 해이로 일관된 금융권이라는 시장 실패와 정책 착오, 관료정치, 무능한 지도자로 특징화될 수 있는 정부 실패의 변증법적 귀결로 나타나고 있다. 때문에 한국 경제의 침체는 민주화 이행, 그 자체보다는 시장 내적인 요인과 민주적 학습과 개혁이 결여된 미성숙 민주화의 결과라고 평가할 수 있다. 따라서 국가경제의 부침을 단순히 정치체제에서 연역하는 것은 구체성의 오류를 범하는 것과 같다. 이러한 오류를 극복하기 위해서는 대내외적인 맥락적 역동성, 정책선택, 그리고 그 이행을 종합적으로 파악해야 할 것이다. Elective affinity between regime type and economic performance has long remained as a main subject of scholarly debates in the field of political economy. Two paradigms have contended in this regard. While the demo-prosperity perspective has emphasized positive correlates between liberal democracy and capitalist development, the demo-disaster perspective has favored authoritarian regime as a prerequisite for economic development by pointing out negative economic consequences of liberal democracy. Findings through an examination of recent economic crisis in South Korea demonstrate that regime type does not really matter. The current economic downturn in South Korea Bias resulted not from democratic opening and consolidation, but from a dynamic interplay of market factors such as delinquent firms and banks and non-market factors such as policy, bureaucratic, and leadership failures. Ironically, immature democracy and failures of democratic reforms therefrom have contributed to precipitating the economic crisis in South Korea. What really matters is conjunctural context, timely and flexible policy choice, and is effective implementation.

미국의 이라크 침공 3년 - 무엇이 문제인가

문정인 본질과 현상사 2006 본질과 현상 Vol.4 No.-

온열마사지기를 이용한 마이보그래피 및 눈물띠 높이 평가

문정인,추병선 대한시과학회 2023 대한시과학회지 Vol.25 No.1

Purpose : The purpose of this measure and evaluate the meibography and tear meniscus height to the change in eyelid temperature of the warm compression theraphy. Methods : Targeting 30 participants were recruited and participants were divided into group into dry eye group and normal eye group based on OSDI (ocular surface disease index) survey score (15 for dry eye group, 15 for normal eye group). The warm compression theraphy is used warm eye massger OA-MA011 (OA, Seoul, Korea), OA-MA 030 (OA, Seoul, Korea), DP-EM50 (Caremedi, Hanam, Korea), the eyelid temperature change with wear time for each group. The eyelid temperature was measured with an A400 camera before wear and 15 min while wearing. The meibography and TMH was measured with an Keratograph 5m before and after warm eye massger wearing time 15min. Results : It was confirm when in the dry eye group, the eyelid temperature before wearing is 33.89±0.64℃ and 39.77±0.69℃ after wearing it. The normal eye group is 33.79±0.57℃ before wearing it. It was 39.78±0.57℃ after wearing and was statistically validated in the normal eye group (p=0.024). Meibography was 1.18±0.28 before wearing in the dry eye group, 0.85±0.33 after wearing, 1.04±0.27 before wearing in the normal eye group, and was measured at 0.80±0.32 after wearing and statistically validated in the normal eye group (p=0.030). The TMH was 0.28±0.04 mm before wearing, an increase of about 10.7% to 0.31± 0.06mm after wearing, and the normal eye group was 0.29±0.06mm before wearing, an increase of about 10.3% to 0.32±0.07 mm after wearing. statistically validated in Dry eye group (p=0.030) and normal eye group (p=0.004). Conclusion : If the eyelid temperature rises, it can affect meibography and TMH. Meibomian gland dysfunction and dry eye are treatable. However, there are differences depending on the wearing method and time and when heat is applied as an improvement method the temperature and method should be set according to the symptoms. 목적 : 눈꺼풀 온도 변화에 따라 마이보그래피와 눈물띠 높이를 측정하여 평가하고자 하였다. 방법 : 연구 대상은 성인 30명(23.7±2.60세)를 대상으로 하였고 그룹화를 위해 OSDI 설문지를 통해 건성안그룹과 정상안 그룹으로 나누었다(건성안 15명, 정상안 15명). 눈꺼풀 온도에 변화를 주기 위해 온열 기능 가능한안구 마사지기를 사용하였고 종류는 OA-MA011(OA, Seoul, Korea), OA-MA 030(OA, Seoul, Korea), DP- EM50(Caremedi, Hanam, Korea)를 사용하였고, Keratograph 5m(OCULUS, Wetzlar, Germany)를 사용하여 온열치료 전과 후 눈꺼풀 온도 및 마이보그래피와 눈물띠 높이를 측정해서 비교 분석하였다. 결과 : 안구 마사지기 온열치료 전과 15분 후 건성안 그룹에서 온열치료 전 눈꺼풀 온도는 33.89±0.64℃이며, 온열치료 후 39.77±0.69℃이다. 정상안 그룹은 온열치료 전 33.79±0.57℃, 온열치료 후 39.78±0.57℃ 측정하였다. 마이보그래피는 건성안 그룹에서 온열치료 전 Grade 1.18±0.28이며, 온열치료 후 Grade 0.85± 0.33이고 정상안 그룹에서 온열치료 전에는 Grade 1.04±0.27이며, 온열치료 후 Grade 0.80±0.32로 측정되었다. 정상안 그룹에서 통계적으로 유의성을 확인하였다(p=0.030). 눈물띠 높이는 건성안 그룹은 온열치료 전0.28±0.04 mm이며, 온열치료 후 0.31±0.06 mm로 약 10.7% 상승하였고 정상안 그룹은 온열치료 전 0.29± 0.06 mm이며 온열치료 후 0.32±0.07 mm로 약 10.3% 상승하였다. 눈물띠 높이는 건성안은 통계적으로 유의성을 확인하였고(p=0.030) 정상안도 통계적으로 유의성을 확인되었다(p=0.004). 결론 : 온열치료를 위해 안구 마사지기를 사용 시 착용 방법과 눈꺼풀 온도 유지가 중요한 부분이다. 그러므로온열치료 시간을 최소 10분 이상 하고 반복적인 치료를 해야 건성안 및 마이봄샘 기능 이상에 효과가 있을 거라고사료 된다. 또한 눈물막 개선을 위해 온열 치료 시 횟수와 상관없이 치료 효과가 보였다. 그러므로 온열 치료 시효과적인 치료가 될 수 있도록 환자 상태 확인 및 조언을 할 수 있어야 할 것이다.