정부지원 R&D의 중소기업 기술 및 고용 성과에 대한 연구

노용환,홍성철,Noh, Yong-Hwan,Hong, Sung Cheol 기술경영경제학회 2016 Journal of Technology Innovation Vol.24 No.2

본 연구는 정부의 중소기업 R&D 지원 사업에 대한 효과를 개별 사업체 수준자료를 활용하여 추정하였다. 2010년도 정부 R&D 지원 사업에 참여한 업체의 기술성과, 민간 R&D 유인효과, 고용효과를 사업체 수준에서 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 정부의 중소기업에 대한 R&D 투자(규모 및 건수)는 국내 특허 등록 실적에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 국내외 특허 등록 실적은 자산규모가 큰 사업체일수록 많은 것으로 나타났으나, 정부투자 연구사업 주관업체의 기술성과는 공동 위탁 참여업체에 비해 오히려 낮은 것으로 추정되었다. 둘째, 정부의 R&D 정책은 민간 R&D 인센티브와 보완적 기능을 가지고 있는 것으로 추정되었으며, 정부 R&D 투자 1% 증가는 사업 종료 후 민간업체의 R&D 지출을 비탄력적으로(0.193~0.245%) 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 정부의 R&D 지원이 참여기업의 고용 성장에 기여한 것으로 나타났다. 특히, R&D 지원의 고용에 대한 성과가 기업규모 및 기술수준별로 차이를 보임에 따라 정부의 R&D 정책에 있어 기업의 특성을 고려한 차별적 지원이 필요하다.

정보격차(情報隔差)와 경제성장: 국가간 패널자료를 이용한 분석

노용환 ( Yong Hwan Noh ),유경원 ( Kyeong Won Yoo ) 한국국제경제학회 2006 국제경제연구 Vol.12 No.3

기업(企業)의 비정규인력(非正規人力) 고용행태(雇用行態) 결정요인(決定要因) 분석(分析)

노용환 ( Yong Hwan Noh ) 한국국제경제학회 2007 국제경제연구 Vol.13 No.2

복지정책의 소득흐름에 관한 고찰: 사회계정행렬 승수분해 및 구조경로분석

노용환 ( Noh Yong Hwan ) 한국보건사회연구원 2014 保健社會硏究 Vol.34 No.3

The argument that “social welfare is a free lunch” implies that welfare damages fiscal sustainability of government and hinders economic growth. Using a `social accounting matrix` (SAM) associated with the fixed-price multiplier decomposition and structural path analysis, we figured out the effects of welfare policy on the income and redistribution. First, it is shown that the direct government transfer to the low-income households does improve income inequality, while the investment of same amount of money to the production activities produces more income. That is, in terms of production activities, there is an opportunity cost in transfers to the low-income households. Second, if the injection occurs in social welfare sectors as production activities, elementary paths originating with that activity would affect factor demand before the influence is transmitted to the households. This implies the importance of primary income associated with wage, when improving household income. Third, the investment on production sectors such as health and medical services and social welfare service increases more household income and, at the same time, improves income redistribution, relative to the investment on other production sectors. Social welfare is “not” a free lunch. We should focus our concern on whether the welfare expenditure contributes to the improvement of income inequality.

한반도에서 독일식 사회보장제도 통합은 가능한가: 통일 환경과 정책선택의 검토

노용환 ( Noh Yong-hwan ) 한국보건사회연구원 2016 保健社會硏究 Vol.36 No.2

This study investigates the possibility of a German way of social security integration in the Korean peninsula. Unlike German reunification where the Western system of social security and welfare replaced that of the East within a short period of time after the unification, it is much less obvious that the South Korea is playing a dominant role for North Korea. Considering our estimation of the capital costs of social security integration under various circumstances and assumptions, a hasty decision about the full-scale integration of social security system prior to North`s taking matured market economic principles is far from desirable. A rapid integration may cause delay in economic and social union. We proposed that short-term social security support for the protection of basic livelihood security of the North Korean immediately after reunification is required. Emergency welfare assistance system including minimum living expense guaranteed and health protection for the people from the North right after the reunification should be promoted. Also, to prevent disorder caused by the probable exodus from the North to the South predicted with the reunification, it is very important to prepare a policy that induces North Koreans to voluntarily remain and work in the North.

공적보증의 고용창출 및 고용유지 효과 추정

노용환 ( Yong-hwan Noh ) 한국금융연구원 2017 한국경제의 분석 Vol.23 No.2

Retaining and creating jobs are the important contribution of the support for SMEs. Researches for now, however, have been focused only on the study of the creation of new jobs to see the employment performance of various government policies. In this study, applying credit guarantee service, we estimated employment retention effect as well as the new employment creation effect by the propensity score matching estimation. Kaplan-Meier survival ratios show that credit guarantee (hereafter, CG) does have a significantly positive effect on retaining jobs. We find that the smaller the firm size, the greater the contribution to the employment retention. However, the retention effect is not sustainable in the long-run. In the case of the construction industry, the survival effect and the employment retention effect of the credit guarantee, regardless of the short or long term, did not appear. The current employment impact assessment by the government assumes no employment performance if there is no new job creation. If the policy enforcement keeps the employment of individual beneficiaries on an ongoing basis or the likelihood of employment retention increases as the probability of survival of business increases, even if no additional employment has occurred, it should be evaluated as employment performance.

한계소비성향 추정을 통한 이전지출의 소비효과 분석

노용환 ( Noh Yong-hwan ) 한국보건사회연구원 2021 保健社會硏究 Vol.41 No.2

This study presents the mechanism of how consumption is generated by the government transfer to households. The nominal income multiplier of the social account matrix was obtained that took into account both production activities and household sectors. Also, the marginal propensity to consume for each income class was estimated using Korean household survey data. Through a scenario approach, the effect of income generated according to the distribution method of government transfer to household consumption was analyzed. First, the consumption effect of the same method as the first COVID-19 relief stimulus checks for all Korean households was estimated at 19.2% of the government transfer. Second, households' average propensity and marginal propensity to consume were estimated to be larger for the lower income class; and the rational government transfer to improve the distribution of household income is to strengthen support for the low-income class associated with higher marginal propensity to consume. Third, it is estimated that financial assets act as a wealth effect on consumption, and household debt plays a role in promoting consumption through financing rather than a limiting factor for current consumption. The significant contribution of the present research can be found in that it presents a methodology analyzing consumption effect while overcoming the limitations of the input-output analysis that assumes the omission of the household sector and helicopter-style government expenditure.

자살위험의 미시적 결정요인 분석

노용환 ( Yong Hwan Noh ) 한국보건경제정책학회 2007 보건경제와 정책연구 Vol.13 No.1

For every completed suicide in Korea, there are about 740.5 suicidal ideations and 31.9 self-reported suicide attempts. This paper investigates some of the economic roots of suicidal ideation using a large individual level data set of about 18,000 individuals in Korea aged 10 years and above for two survey years. Probit estimation shows that the suicidal ideation demonstrates immediate response to economic crisis and strong response to income changes. Analysis of gender and age differences showed that the elasticity of income on suicide risk is greater for males than females and greater for pre-retirement ages than post-retirement ages. The finding also suggests that depression and stress are the major concerns in explaining the suicidal ideation.

정책연구 : 중소기업 정책자금의 미시적 성과 분석과 역할에 관한 연구

노용환 ( Yong Hwan Noh ) 한국중소기업학회 2010 중소기업연구 Vol.32 No.1

중소기업 정책자금 고용효과의 지속성 분석

노용환 ( Yong Hwan Noh ),주무현 ( Moo Hyeon Joo ) 한국중소기업학회 2012 중소기업연구 Vol.34 No.2

Since the Korean economy is considered as being trapped in a jobless economic growth stage, it is important to create jobs via implementing various economic policies. Among them, this study investigates whether the policy loan on the SMEs in Korea is being operated in employment-friendly ways. Using a micro-econometrics analysis, we compare the performance between treated and controlled establishments to calculate the employment impact. While the employment effects using an input-output table of a central bank in the perspective of macro-level public expenditure have an indirect impact on the establishments which have used policy loans, micro analysis could generate a direct impact on employment in the participating establishments relative to the non-participants. This study focuses only on the loans associated with the ``Small and medium Business Corporation`` (SBC), which is a non-profit public organization established to implement such government policies for the development of SMEs. Regarding this program, it is well known that commercial banks are reluctant to serve SMEs. This is mainly due to lenders` incomplete information about SMEs and the firms` lack of collateral to secure commercial loans. Policy loans for SMEs, therefore, are implemented to compensate commercial banks` losses and take inherent risks, while keeping borrowing rates low relative to the commercial rates. In this study, we evaluate the job-creation effects of the policy loans in the following ways: First, we use an establishment-level employment insurance database of the Korea Employment Information Service for the employment effects evaluation. Second, to cure a potential bias from treatment selection conditional on observed variables due to the effects of unobserved variables, we first introduce a simple two-period, two-group comparison associated with the employment effect before and after implementing government programs, which is well known as the ``difference in difference`` (DID) method. Third, since we do not know outcomes for untreated when it is under treatment, and for treated when it is not under treatment, individual performance cannot be observed simultaneously. Thus, we estimate the employment effect by comparing the performance of the treatment group that participated in the relevant policy and that of a similar control group. Forth, we propose strategies for increasing jobs with the support of policy loans for SMEs. Analyzing the effect of SME policy funds on employment, we extracted 25,613 establishments out of the establishments that applied for policy-loans between 2005~2010. To control for double support, the sample is restricted to the establishments that applied only once to the policy loan. The employment effect of the beneficiary establishments of the SBC policy funds is analyzed to see the T+1 year, T+2 year and T+3 year,starting from target year (T). After the policy fund support, within the three years of the research period, the result clearly shows that the number of average employees of participant establishments increased compared to that of non-participants. According to a simple DID analysis, the average number of employees of the participants increased by 1.84 persons after three years from receiving the policy loan compared with non-participants. This effect, however, seems to be a short-run phenomena as we have difficulty finding evidence of employment sustainability associated with policy loans. This result is robust with the Heckman (1976) type of adoption and usage models. It is also investigated that the employment effects are higher in the industries such as electronic components and precision instruments than other industries. The short-run effects are higher in policy loans associated with the management stabilization, while the long-run effects observed in loans associated with the commercialization of R&D results, foundations of new economic growth, and venture business start-ups. It was also found that in the short run, working funds are an effective way of maintaining and increasing employment rather than plant and equipment investment, and vice versa. The effect of approved policy loan on employment is negatively associated with firm age and its size, while it is positively associated with the return on net sales. It also found that the collateral and debt ration of establishments do not significantly affect establishments` employment. SME financing from the public sector seems to be essential. It has been shown that, at the minimum, there exists a significantly positive relationship between the policy fund and its effectiveness on employment in the short run. Our results also imply that when providing policy loans to increase the employees, it is more desirable to target young prospective SMEs rather than matured firms in terms of firm size and age. Lending to SMEs via commercial banks is decreased in a recession phase, while increased in the expansion phase, causing excess investment. Policy loans can play a pivotal role in alleviating this kind of co-movement between commercial loans to SMEs and the business cycle. In particular, for maintaining and increasing employment of SMEs, policy loans in the recession phase should be concentrated on short-run working funds, while those in the expansion phase should be concentrated on long-run plant and equipment investment. This paper is divided into four sections, including the introduction. In section 2, we introduce the methodology and the description of data used in the paper. In section 3, we empirically analyze the effect of policy loans on the establishments` employment using micro level pooled data. The last section concludes the paper by providing policy recommendations to reinforce the employment effect of loans from the public sector.