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재건축 기대에 따른 아파트 특성요인의 시계열적 가치분석
남형권(Nam, Hyunggwon),서원석(Seo, Wonseok) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2017 國土計劃 Vol.52 No.5
The purpose of this study is to determine how the value of apartment characteristics changes in Seoul according to the expectation of reconstruction. Specifically, this study compares the apartment value system affected by the construction expectation and those are not affected. Moreover it also analyzes time series value change of the apartment characteristics based on modified repeat sales model based on the mark to market prices of apartments divided into two category, over than 17 building years which are considered the construction expectation and less than 17 years which are not considered. The study concludes that the impact of apartment characteristics on the price differs from the construction expectation. Especially, the apartments with less than 17 years are found to have the price effects in the internal characteristics, while those with over than 17 years are more related to the external characteristics. Also, a high availability of floor area ratio that can be expected to be a benefit greatly from the reconstruction is crucial to enhancing the price. The offset is more likely to be bigger when it comes to reconstruction. The study suggests an idea of what factors are more interested in private sector when considering reconstruction, as well as the need for the government policy to secure the stability of housing market.
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남형권(Nam, Hyunggwon),서원석(Seo, Wonseok) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2018 國土計劃 Vol.53 No.4
The purpose of this study is to analyze the features of outflow population in the local small and medium sized declining cities, focusing mainly on the household level, and also to find the decision factors of regional choice using the bivariate probit model. As a result, this study found that the households that flowed out of the declining city are associated with high financial assets and higher educational levels. However, housing ownership was found to be a factor that lowered the probability of population outflow because it gave relatively high residential stability, and also due to the low liquidity of housing assets compared to financial assets. Economic characteristics such as income and occupation were also found not to be the determinants of the migration in the declining city. However, the probability of professional and office workers migrating to the Seoul metropolitan area is relatively high. This seems to be due to the fact that demand for highly educated occupations is higher in the Seoul metropolitan area. In conclusion, this study gives a better understanding of the features of outflow population in the declining cities as well as its policy implications for balanced development.
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김병석(Kim, Byung-Suk),남형권(Nam, Hyunggwon),이동성(Lee, DongSung) 한국도시행정학회 2018 도시 행정 학보 Vol.31 No.1
본 연구는 인천시 연령별 인구이동이 아파트가격에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 분석하고, 분석결과를 바탕으로 정책적 시사점을 제시하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해 인천시를 대상으로 2006년 2월부터 2017년 6월까지 137개 시계열자료를 활용하였고, 분석방법은 오차수정모형을 이용하여 시계열분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과, 본 연구의 목표변수인 40대는 아파트가격에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나 인천시 아파트가격에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 계층인 것으로 파악되었다. 반면, 20대, 50대, 60세 이상은 아파트가격에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 주택공급은 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났고, 지역특성요인으로 제조업생산은 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 이러한 분석결과를 바탕으로 도시관리에 대한 몇 가지 정책적 함의를 모색하였다. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of age-specific migration on apartment Prices in the Incheon city and to suggest policy implications based on the analysis results. For this purpose, 137 time series of data were utilized in Incheon city from February 2006 to June 2017, and the analysis method was conducted using error correction models. The analysis showed that the 40s, the target variable for this study, had a positive(+) effect on apartment prices, indicating that they have a positive effect on apartment prices in Incheon city. but, 20s, 50s, over 60, showed negative(-) effect on apartment prices. Also, housing supply showed positive(+) effect and manufacturing production on regional characteristics has negative(-) effect. In conclusion several policy implications for urban management found through this analysis are discussed.
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