앙상블 학습과 온도 변수를 이용한 A 호텔의 전력소모량 예측

김재휘,김재희 한국통계학회 2019 응용통계연구 Vol.32 No.2

Forecasting the electricity consumption through analyzing the past electricity consumption a advantageous for energy planing and policy. Machine learning is widely used as a method to predict electricity consumption. Among them, ensemble learning is a method to avoid the overfitting of models and reduce variance to improve prediction accuracy. However, ensemble learning applied to daily data shows the disadvantages of predicting a center value without showing a peak due to the characteristics of ensemble learning. In this study, we overcome the shortcomings of ensemble learning by considering the temperature trend. We compare nine models and propose a model using random forest with the linear trend of temperature. 과거의 전력소모량을 분석하여 미래의 전력소모량을 예측하는 것은 에너지 계획과 정책 결정에 있어 많은 이점을 가져다준다. 기계학습은 최근 전력소모량을 예측하는 분석 방법으로 많이 사용하고 있다. 그중 앙상블 학습은 모형의 과적합 현상을 방지하고 분산을 줄여 예측의 정확성을 높이는 방법으로 알려져 있다. 하지만 일별 데이터에 앙상블 학습을 적용했을 때 분석 방법의 특성으로 인해 피크를 잘 나타내지 못하고 중심값으로 예측하는 단점을 보였다. 본 연구에서는 앙상블 학습 전에 온도 변수와의 상관성을 고려하여 선형모형으로 적합함으로써 앙상블 학습의 단점을 보완한다. 그리고 9개의 모형을 비교한 결과 온도 변수를 선형모형으로 적합하고 랜덤포레스트를 사용한 모형이 결과가 가장 좋음을 보여준다.

The Effect of Denomination on Purchase Decision Making: Focusing on the Construal Level Theory

김재휘,김수정 한국소비자·광고심리학회 2014 한국심리학회지 소비자·광고 Vol.15 No.3

Price information is important for consumers when they make a purchase decision and it has twofold roles. One role is ‘cost’ in the process of payment and the other is ‘quality signal’ as a result of a payment. Depending on how much consumers focus on the price role of ‘cost’ their perception on monetary sacrifice as well as purchase decision making will change. To understand consumer’s point of view to the role of price, we focused on the money consumers’ hand which is closely related to payment. Especially we suggest that the denominations of money one possesses can influence perceived monetary sacrifice and attitude toward a product, based on previous research on a category and construal level. To be specific, a large denomination triggers relatively abstract representation similar to a function of broad category, which makes consumers focus more on the role of price as a quality signal rather than the other role of price as a cost. On the other hand a small denomination triggers relatively concrete representation similar to a function of narrow category, which makes consumers focus more on the role of price as cost. To test our assumption we conducted 2 main studies. In study 1 we demonstrated that participants perceived less monetary sacrifice when they owned the same amount of money in a large denomination(￦10,000 bill) than in a small denomination(10 of ￦1,000 bills). In addition, we examined this denomination effect on participants’ attitude toward product in study 2. The result reveals that participants who owned money in a large denomination(￦10,000 bill) showed more positive attitude toward a target product than who owned money in a small denomination(10 of ￦1,000 bills). Furthermore, we certified that this phenomenon is mediated by a representation which is induced by a denomination (study 2). Our research shows the importance of considering the factor related to consumers’ monetary possession, especially the denomination of money consumers are having at the moment of payment to understand the consumer's purchase decision making.

공해방지 광고의 프레이밍 효과 : 환경에대한주의각성과행위정보제공의매개적영향

김재휘,박유진 한국방송광고공사 2000 광고연구 Vol.0 No.49

인터넷 게임의 광고제시유형에 따른 광고효과 및 사이트태도에 관한 연구

김재휘,김지호,김재한 한국광고학회 2002 광고학연구 Vol.13 No.1

韓國體育의 자리매김을 위한 史的眺望과 그 省察

金在輝 新羅大學校 1992 論文集 Vol.33 No.1

The purpose of this study is to re-illuminate and reflect about physical education of korea in the point of historical view. We seize the true aspect of physical education of korea. clarify our position in international society and sugget the desirable direction at which we aim in out physical education The method of this research is made by means of the investigation and analysis of internal and external literatures concerned with physical education of korea. Important components of this study are as follow: 1. Physical education of korea already done in the age of three kingdoms in korean history for the basis of development for modern physical education viewed from 'education through physical activity' throughout the age of Koryo dynatsty and Yi dynasty. 2. Modren physical education of korea appeared as Concept of 'relaxation', used as a means of plan for building up 'a rich country with a strong army'. But owing to the Japanese armed aggression to Korea, the concept of 'relaxation' was subsituted for 'gymnastics'. The korean sports introduced by U.S. missionaries was inculcated the spirit of independence of the korea people. 3. On account of Japanese aggression, a militaristic trend is still remained in the sports of korea. Because of physical education policy being led by the government, sportaneousness of korean sports was much restricted but all theses are now overcoming by the great potentiality, the improvement of economy, the promotion of physical strength, and the development of sports science. 4. The aimed direction of korean sports consists in the promotion of sports for all for the well-being of all korean people and it is the aiming point of our nation for the welfare of our society.

인터넷 검색 사이트의 키워드 광고효과 연구

김재휘,김지호,김용환 한국광고학회 2002 광고학연구 Vol.13 No.4

인터넷 광고 혼잡도가 광고효과에 미치는 영향 : 배너광고의 수와 침입성을 중심으로

김재휘,김태훈 한국광고학회 2001 광고학연구 Vol.12 No.4

광고기억 및 광고태도와 관련된 중간광고의 효과

김재휘 한국광고학회 1999 광고학연구 Vol.10 No.4

목표행동에 대한 사회적 지지 정도에 따른 메시지 프레이밍의 설득효과

김재휘,전진안 한국소비자·광고심리학회 2009 한국심리학회지 소비자·광고 Vol.10 No.3

The purposes of this study examine the effects of the proportion of performers and message framing on persuasion. In the concrete, when an individual perceived that majority are performing the target behavior, which of framing is more effective and when an individual perceived that minority are performing the target behavior, which of framing is more effective? In order to validate it, We conducted an experiment. In the experiment, we used vaccination behavior as the target behavior in the experiment. In result, we found that when an individual primed with the situation that many undergraduates were performing the target behavior, he/she perceived the value of the target behavior more in loss framing than gain framing because losses loomed larger than gains. On the other hand, when an in dividual primed with the situation that a few of undergraduates were performing the target behavior, he/she perceived the value of the target behavior more in gain framing than loss framing because an individual estimated gains more importantly than losses. And the result of behavioral intention is same as above. Discussion of the results and implications were suggested. 본 연구는, ‘현재 다른 사람들이 얼마나 목표행동을 하고 있는가’ 라는 ‘목표행동에 대한 사회적 지지정도’가 메시지 프레이밍의 효과에 있어서 어떤 역할을 하는가를 확인하고자 하였다. 즉 다수가 목표행동을 하고 있는지, 혹은 소수가 목표행동을 하고 있는지에 따라 프레이밍의 설득효과가 다르게 나타나는가를 검증하고자 하였다. 이를 위해, 179명의 대학생을 대상으로, 간염예방접종을 하도록 설득하는 내용의 메시지를 3(사회적 지지정도 3가지 수준)* 2(이득과 손실 프레이밍)의 요인설계를 통하여 제시하고, 각각의 효과를 검토하는 실험을 행하였다. 실험결과, 다수행동 상황(사회적 지지정도가 높은 행동)에서는 이득보다 손실 메시지에 의한 가치지각 및 행동의도가 높게 나타났으며, 반대로 소수행동 상황(사회적 지지정도가 낮은 행동)에서는 손실보다 이득 메시지에 의한 가치지각 및 행동의도가 높게 나타났다. 이 같은 결과는 프레이밍을 통한 설득에 있어서 타인(다른 사람들)과 같은 사회적 준거가 중요한 역할을 하고 있다는 사실을 입증한 것이다. 나아가 이러한 결과는 공공정책이나 소비행동의 설득에서도 유용할 수 있는데, 현재 얼마나 찬성(수용)하는 사람이 많은가와 같은 여론이나 확산의 정도에 따라서 설득의 프레이밍을 달리 해야 한다는 점을 시사해주고 있다.

生理에 따른 自覺症狀 및 身體機能의 變化에 關한 調査 : 女大生을 中心으로

金在輝 新羅大學校 1984 論文集 Vol.16 No.-

This paper is a research of self-conscious symptom during the mensturation and menstrual effects on the physical functions of the college female students. The results of this research can be described as follows: (1) Effects on the self-conscious symptoms a. Langour is mentally the most frequent self-conscious symptoms. And melancholy. Uncomfortableness, and unrest are occasionally found, too. b. Stomachache is physically the most frequent symptom. c. The menstrual change caused buy physical activity is hardly found. (2) Effects on the physical functions The periodical differences of pro-mensturation, mensturation, and post-mensturation have few effects on thephysical activities such as standing broad jump, throwing, foreward trunk bending, hanging in arm-flexed position, but have some significant effects on the items such as 60m dash, sit up, backxard trunk bending. In latter case, the records during mensturation is particularly lower than those of pre-and post mensturation periods.