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김원흥,염성수,김창기 한국기상학회 2020 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.56 No.1
Sea fogs over the Yellow Sea in the western coast of the Korean Peninsula were simulated by the coupled systems of 3D regional models (UM and WRF) and a 1D model (PAFOG) with fine vertical resolution. The coupling was conducted by generating meteorological fields with 3D regional model and providing them as the initial fields and boundary conditions (external forcings) of the 1D model. The accuracy of the cold sea fog (T – SST > 0) simulation improved through the proper treatment of turbulent cooling near the surface by the coupling. However, the accuracy of warm sea fog (T – SST < 0) was improved only slightly by the coupling,which is likely due to the inadequate estimation of the external forcing (advection) of heat and moisture below the upper inversion layer. It was found that the resolution of the 3D regional model did not significantly affect the initial fields of the 1D model but the performance of the 1D + 3D coupled systems were still affected by the resolution of the 3D regional model since it affected the external forcings on the 1D model in the coupled system. Surprisingly, the coupled system with coarse resolution 3D model produced generally better fog simulation than that with fine resolution 3D model, due to the high fluctuation of advection (external forcing) for fine resolution. Meanwhile, for the same resolution, the two 3D models (UM and WRF) produced significantly different initial fields and the overall performance seemed better for the UMcoupled system than theWRF coupled system. In short, itwas demonstrated that fog prediction could be improved by the coupling for cold sea fog cases over the Yellow Sea, but improvement from the coupling was small for warm sea fog cases, which indicates that more research is required to produce promising results for warm sea fogs.
기상청 현업 모형(UM)과 1차원 난류모형(PAFOG)의 접합시스템 개발 및 검증
김원흥(Wonheung Kim),염성수(Seong Soo Yum) 한국기상학회 2015 대기 Vol.25 No.1
As an attempt to improve fog predictability at Incheon International Airport (IIA) we couple the 3D weather forecasting model currently operational in Korea Meteorological Administration (regional Unified Model, UM_RE) with a 1D turbulence model (PAFOG). The coupling is done by extracting the meteorological data from the 3D model and properly inserting them in the PAFOG model as initial conditions and external forcing. The initial conditions include surface temperature, 2 m temperature and dew point temperature, geostrophic wind at 850 hPa and vertical profiles of temperature and dew point temperature. Moisture and temperature advections are included as external forcing and updated every hr. To validate the performance of the coupled system, simulation results of the coupled system are compared to those of the 3D model alone for the 22 sea fog cases observed over the Yellow Sea. Three statistical indices, i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), linear correlation coefficient (R) and Critical Success Index (CSI), are examined, and they all indicate that the coupled system performs better than the 3D model alone. These are certainly promising results but more improvement is required before the coupled system can actually be used as an operational fog forecasting model. For the RMSE, R, and CSI values for the coupled system are still not good enough for operational fog forecast.