미국의 동북아시아 지역질서 구상

김우상 한국전략문제연구소 1998 전략연구 Vol.5 No.2

Since the end of the Cold War the redistribution of capabilities among great powers in the Asia-Pacific region has occurred. A careful analysis of the changes in the regional distribution of power will enable us to forecast the stability of the regional systemic order. In this paper, based on several reports including "Foreign Policy into the 21st Century: The U.S. Leadership Challenge," prepared by the Center for Strategic & International Studies(CSIS), "America's National Interests" by the Commission on America's National Interests, "United States Security Strategy for the East Asia Pacific Region," written by Joseph Nye, and such other reports as EASI Ⅱ, Bottom Up Review, and Quadrennial Defense Review, I will investigate the U.S. strategic plan for Northeast Asian regional order into the 21st century. First of all, I examine the U.S. national interests in the region since the U.S. security strategy for the regional systemic order must be planned in accordance with its goal to maximize its national interests. Then, I provide its strategic plan for the regional order into the 21st century. There are basically three U.S. vital national interests in the Asia-Pacific region. First, the U.S. will do anything to prevent any single power from dominating the region. The U.S. will continue to play an important role in maintaining the existing regional systemic order set up mainly by itself and its allies. Second, the U.S. has a vital interest in ensuring continued commercial, political. and military access to and through the region. Third, the U.S. has a vital interest in halting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology as well as chemical and biological weapons and technology. To protect these national interests the U.S. will strengthen its leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. First of all, the U.S. will maintain its bilateral military alliance relationship both with Japan and South Korea, and keep its current level of approximately 100,000 troops in Asia, most of whom are forward-stationed in Japan and South Korea. To maintain hegemonic leadership in the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. must possess strong power projection capability in the region. The U.S. will also utilize its influence on such multilateral institutions as ASEAN Regional Forum(ARF), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC), and the 'Four-Party Talks' among South and North Korea, China and the U.S. The U.S. will also support the spread of democracy in the region and promote the observance of human rights norms. The U.S. will try to abolish protectionism in the region and to promote international trade based on free market system. Recently, several Asian counties including South Korea are under serious financial difficulties and some of them have asked IMF and other financial institutions to bail them out. The U.S. will help stabilize economies of those countries in financial difficulties while inducing them to be more open and free market oriented. The U.S. will also try to integrate China into the regional economic order supported by the U.S. The U.S. will encourage China to be a part of the World Trade Organization(WTO) and press China to relax its export and import control system. To contain nuclear weapons and missile proliferation is directly related to the U.S. hegemonic leadership status in the international system. There are a couple of nations in Asia which might be obstacles to the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. will try to prevent North Korea, China and Russia from spreading those weapons and technology. The U.S. will also honor the Geneva Agreement with North Korea and play the major role in the 'Four-Way Talks.' The U.S. must want to maintain its military alliance relationship both with Japan and with South Korea in the 21st century. The U.S. and Japan has revised the Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation last September. The U.S.. by reinforcing its military ties with Japan. could not only check the potential Chinese challenge to its leadership in the region but also prevent Japan from becoming the dominant power in the region. The U.S. must also want to maintain its military ties with South Korea even after the Korean peninsula is unified. Even if the U.S. domestic public opinion is not so favorable to maintaining its formal alliance ties with Unified Korea. the U.S. government would make effort to keep its military ties with Unified Korea. The U.S. knows that in case it does not maintain its ties with Korea. Korea might go for a new alliance relationship with its threatening neighbor, the People's Republic of China. Neither the U.S. nor Japan would like to see that kind of situation happening in the Korea peninsula in the near future. The U.S.-Japan and the U.S.-Korea alliance ties must be the main skeleton of the U.S. security structure for Northeast Asian region in the 21st century. In addition. the U.S. will utilize such multilateral economic institution as APEC and other governmental or non-governmental multilateral security dialogues as ARF. "Four-Way Talks." and CSCAP. The U.S. will also make every effort to foster or establish such international regimes as NPT. MCTR. CTBT. or new regimes related to human rights or free trade. Finally, when the U.S. and South Korea formed military ties about 45 years ago, that alliance was an "autonomy-security trade-off' type of relationship. That is, the U.S. provided extended deterrence to Korea. and in return Korea gave out a part of its autonomy to the U.S. However, that asymmetric relationship between the U.S. and Korea changes more and more to a symmetric one. As the strategic importance of its ties with Korea increases in preventing China from becoming the dominant power in the region. the relationship between the U.S. and Korea becomes more and more equal. In the early part of the 21st century. therefore. it is expected that the U.S.-Korea alliance will be strengthened in a more equal basis.

현실주의와 자유주의 시각에 바탕을 둔 전쟁원인 연구

김우상 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 1995 한국과 국제정치 Vol.11 No.2

햇볕정책의 성공적 이행을 위한 국내적ㆍ국제체제적 요소

김우상 연세대학교 통일연구원 1999 통일연구 Vol.3 No.2

To implement the Kim Dae-jung government's "sunshine policy" successfully the followings should be satisfied: first of all, the sunshine policy should be grounded at least on two things - deterrence based on strong military preparedness and consensus-based policy toward North Korea. Second, in dealing with North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile program, South Korea should adopt the principle of reciprocity.Although Kim Dae-jung government suggests that the sunshine policy is based on the principle of reciprocity, it is not clear whether the government actually carries out its North Korea Policy based on the principle of reciprocity.The Korean government should send a clear message about its intention of reciprocal behavior in dealing with North Korea so that North Korea cannot misperceive its intention.Third, in dealing with North Korea, making an effort to build a consensus among South Korea, the United States and Japan and to coordinate the implementation of the consensus-based policies toward North Korea's nuclear program is as important as showing the determination to take the 'middle' position based on the principle of reciprocity.The allies should make North Korea to believe that she would be punished if she refuses to cooperate.North Korea's perception about South Korea and her allies' intentions is the main key in the negotiation processes. Finally, South Korea and her allies should understand that their negotiation game with North Korea is not one-shot game.In other words, they should keep in mind that another missile test or the cancellation of the test is not the end of the game.The second missile test does not mean North Korea firmly decides not to negotiate with the United States any more.The cancellation of the missile test does not mean that North Korea decides to give up her missile program for good, either.Therefore, South Korea, the United States and Japan will be better off playing step-by-step, issue-based small consecutive games with North Korea than playing on-shot comprehensive game.

미·중 패권 경쟁 시기의 한미동맹

김우상 신아시아연구소 2023 신아세아 Vol.30 No.2

Theories of China-US hegemonic competition underscore the importance of the Republic of Korea (ROK)-US alliance. Given the implications of Organski’s power transition theory, Gilpin’s hegemonic war theory, the peaking power trap of Brans and Beckley, Mearsheimer’s offensive realism and offshore balancing, and several alliance theories, we expect that the ROK-US alliance will be strengthened and its credibility will be upgraded to the maximum level in the short-run. To demonstrate the credibility of extended deterrence, both sides will carry out regular and upgraded joint military exercises that include the mobilization of US strategic weapons and a beefed-up missile defense system. The ROK and the US will invite Japan to participate in joint military exercises to strengthen trilateral military cooperation as well. In the long-run, however, these theories suggest that the credibility of US alliance commitments may be reduced. The ROK government should be prepared for rainy days and, at some point, should try to acquire nuclear latency while maintaining compliance with the NPT treaty.

디젤기관에서 대체연료 이용시 연소변동 개선에 관한 연구

김우상,오영택,송규근 全北大學校 1995 論文集 Vol.40 No.-

In recent, lots of researches have been performed to study the stable alternative energy resource to petroleum which can be used in automobile. Especially, this research is focused on the combustion variation which is very impotant parameter to investigate the engine performance. Appropriate parameters are chosen in analyzing the combustion variation for diesel engine. This research suggests the way to improve the combustion variation such as raising fuel temperature and swirling intake air. The following conclusions are obtained in this research. 1. Soybean oil can be used as an alternative fuel for diesel engine. 2. As the injection time is delayed for soybean oil and ethanol, the smoke decreases and combustion variation increases. 3. When 50% soybean oil and 20% ethanol is used with the fuel heating system and the swirling intake air system, the combustion variation is much improved.

중견국 외교 협력방안 모색: 한국과 호주 중심

김우상 제주평화연구원 2011 JPI 정책포럼 Vol.87 No.-

비인 체제 직후 유럽과 세력전이이론

김우상,정운 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2013 동서연구 Vol.25 No.3

본 사례 연구에서는 세력전이이론이 급성장하는 도전국과 상대적으로 쇠퇴하는 패권국간의 세력전이 전쟁 가능성을 설명하는 분석틀을 제공할 뿐 아니라 양국간의 평화적 세력전이 상황에 관한 설명도 가능하다는 것을 보여준다. 1816년 유럽 협력체제 이후 벨기에 독립 문제를 둘러싼 영국과 러시아간의 분쟁 가능성에 관한 사례는 한 편으로는 세력전이이론적 시각에서 예외적인 사례로 보일 수도 있지만, 사실상 평화적 세력전이와 관련된 사례로 설명되어질 수 있다. 본 연구 결과는 강대국간의 세력전이 발생의 전조인 국력 동등 상황에서도 불만족 변수와 같은 다른 상호작용 변수가 만족되지 않으면 전쟁이 발발할 가능성이 높지 않음을 보여준다. This case study shows that the power transition theory not only provides an analytical framework for the potential power transition war between the rising great power challenger and the declining hegemonic power, but also explains the possibility of a peaceful transition of power between them. The Belgian Independence case after the Concert of Europe corroborates that the dissatisfaction variable, which is an interactive variable with the power equality variable, is the key to explain the peaceful transition of power among the rising challenger and the declining hegemon.

러시아의 한반도 정책 변화와 한국의 입장

김우상 제주대학교 동아시아연구소 2001 東아시아硏究論叢 Vol.12 No.-

HUMAN SECURITY IN THE KOREAN PENNINSULA: A CASE OF THE NORTH KOREAN DRUG TRAFFICKING

김우상,조성권 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2003 Global economic review Vol.32 No.3

In this paper, we first introduce the concept of human security as it is currently developing and try to locate the concept of human security within the context of comprehensive security and national security. We also introduce the historical trend of North Korean drug trafficking and discuss its impact on human security around the Korean peninsula. We also present several efficient countermeasures to North Korea’s drug trafficking operations.

The ROK-U.S. Alliance and Korea’s Security Strategy for the 21st Century

김우상 한국학술연구원 2005 Korea Observer Vol.36 No.3

Unified or divided, Korea is a small but not minor power. A middle power surrounded by three great powers, it is a buffer state the U.S. can rely on to help prevent any great power from mounting a regional hegemonic challenge in the 21st century. This paper explores how the Republic of Korea (ROK) views its U.S. alliance, and the raison d’être for its continuance. It suggests both why the U.S. needs the ROK as a middle power ally in the region and a 21st century alliance strategy for Korea. A peaceful and prosperous Northeast Asian future requires a strengthened ROK-U.S. alliance that restores mutual trust.