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자유무역협정(FTA)이 환경오염산업 교역량에 미치는 영향 분석
김수빈(Sue bean Kim),정성영(Seong Young Jeong),배수호(Su ho Bae) 한국정책분석평가학회 2015 政策分析評價學會報 Vol.25 No.4
Along with today's trend toward globalization and trade liberalization, such crucial issues as global warming and environmental destruction have been under controversial debate in the policy community. This paper aims to empirically examine the effects that Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and Korea-Singapore FTA have had on inter-country trades in environmental pollution industries. For empirical analysis, it employs an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis method as a quasi-experimental design, which needs to use comparison group(s) in analyzing net effects of FTA policy. Thus, it utilizes a propensity score matching (PSM) method to reduce the potential problem of selection bias. Mexico and Canada were selected as comparison countries for Chile and Singapore, respectively. It uses the monthly data on imports and exports (measured in tons) covering January 2000 to August 2014.According to empirical findings, Korea-Chile FTA had no effects on the inter-country trades in pollution industries either between Korea and Chile or between Korea and Mexico. However, Korea-Singapore FTA significantly contributed to an increase in both exports and imports between the two countries. After Korea-Singapore FTA took effect, the importing amounts from Canada to Korea significantly increased, while the exporting amounts from Korea to Canada did not significantly change. In summary, these findings do not seem to provide conclusive evidence on the relationship between trade and environment. In future, more empirical analyses and case studies should be conducted for better understanding of trade and environment.
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