거시 공공정책이 경제성장과 소득분배에 미치는 영향

김성순 ( Seong Suhn Kim ) 한국재정정책학회 2013 財政政策論集 Vol.15 No.2

The Korean economy is to emerge from its current critical situation and move on a sustainable growth track, it is a top priority that the harmonious policy groping for the pursuit of concurrent development of economic growth and income distribution would be found. There may have not been getting better of income distribution even though recent government had implemented strong distributive policy rather than economic growth by sharp increase of social welfare spending during 2002- 2007 in Korea. So it is needed that the reason why the result occurred has been examined. The systematic study on this topic is urgently required in view of current situation of public sector in Korea but has been passed over. My research is intended to focus on the issue and to analyze its implication empirically. The results show that reducing income inequality, improving human capital, and increasing trade opennes improve economic growth but increase in rapid social welfare spending impede economic growth. Also economic growth would improve income distribution and inflation rate hurt income equality.

재정정책이 경제성장에 미치는 영향 -VAR Approach-

김성순 ( Seong Suhn Kim ) 한국재정정책학회 2009 財政政策論集 Vol.11 No.3

This paper investigates the growth effects of fiscal policy which intend to find desirable tax and spending policy scheme for efficient government in Korea, which uses annual data for Korea 1970-2007. The Vector Autoregressive method is used to find out dynamic effects as empirical analysis tools. The results show that increase in government spending has positive effect on the economic growth but increase in tax rates has detrimental effect on the growth. It means that cutting tax rates with increase in fiscal spending may have an expansionary effect on the per capita economic growth rate. Also they show that the vitalization of private investment and the cultivation of human capital are most important for long run economic growth in Korea since private investment and average schooling year have been relatively more efficient than fiscal policy factors such as public spending and tax cut policy have.

개방경제하에서 거시경제변수가 경제성장에 미치는 효과 분석

김성순 ( Seong Suhn Kim ) 아시아.유럽미래학회 2016 유라시아연구 Vol.13 No.1

Globalization and digital economy are the main keyword which can explain the recent change in the world economy. Through the “creative economy” policy, Korean government has recently concentrated on economic growth and income distribution through globalization. Policy makers believe that openness facilitates the transmission of technology by providing communication with foreign counterparts and encourages firms to invent new and distinct ideas and technologies. Thus, they argue that capital liberalization and international trade and investment could boost the economic growth in Korea. In this study, I investigate the relationship between multiple macroeconomic variables and economic growth under open economy using the annual panel OECD data during 1985-2012. I employed the endogenous growth model concept using the growth accounting methodology by Cobb-Douglas production function type. The econometric method I used is the panel regression estimation using vector error correction model since there exists cointegration relation among the used variables even though each variable has unit root. Additionally, I examined the long run relationship as well as the short run through the VEC model. The findings suggest that the devaluation of real effective exchange rate, the increase in private investment, and the accumulation of human capital can encourage the growth of per capita GDP by having significant positive relationship. However, the increase of inward FDI and openness discourages the per capita economic growth in the long run even though positive relationship between trade openness and growth was found in the short run. Furthermore, income inequality may have insignificant effect on per capita economic growth rate. The findings of this study highlight that appropriate foreign exchange rate policy and encouragement of private investment would be more important than openness policy to economic growth.

외환위기전후 재정지출이 소득, 물가, 통화에 마치는 효과에 관한 비교분석

김성순(Kim Seong-Suhn) 한국재정학회(구 한국재정·공공경제학회) 2005 재정논집 Vol.20 No.1

  본 논문은 재정지출이 한국의 외환위기를 전후로 구조변화가 발생하였는지 그리고 구조 변화가 발생한 경우 그 효과가 어떻게 상이한 지를 VAR접근방법 (Vector Autoregressive Approach)을 사용하여 실증적인 분석을 시도하였다.<BR>  그 결과, 정부지출의 외생적 충격이 소득(실질GDP), 불가, 통화(M2)에 미치는 영향은 탄력성변수로 볼 때, 외환위기 전후에 양 기간 동안 서로 상이함을 보이고 있다. 외환위기 이전에는 정부지출이 소득에 미치는 양(+)의 영향을 제외하곤, 물가, 통화에 음(-)의 영향을 미친 반면, 외환위기 이후에는 통화 부문에 양(+)의 효과를 미치는 효과를 제외하고, 소득, 물가에도 음(-)의 효과를 주는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 또한 정부지출의 구성내역에 따른 효과를 보기 위해, 총정부지출을 소비성지출과 투자성지출로 나눠 국민경제에 미치는 효과를 살펴보면, 정부소비지출은 외환위기 이전과 이후에 총정부지출의 경우와 비슷한 부호 변화를 보이고 있으며, 대체로 비슷한 양태를 보이고 있다. 반면 정부 투자성 지출의 경우 외환위기이전에 소득, 물가 통화에 모두 (-)의 영향을 미쳤으나, 위기이후에는 물가를 제외하고 소득, 통화 부문에 양(+)의 효과로 반전됨을 보여주고 있다. 이러한 실증 분석의 결과를 통하여 재정활동이 국민경제에 미치는 효과가 외환위기를 전후로 구조변화 가 발생했음을 확인할 수 있었다.   This paper studies on the structural change of fiscal policy after Korean currency crisis through looking at the macroeconomic effects of real GDP, price and money comparing between before and after crisis periods in Korea. Vector Autoregressive Method is used to find out dynamic effects.<BR>  The results show that the effects of government expenditure on real GDP, price and money are very different in terms of growth rate when compared after crisis period with before one. That seems to have a structural change between two periods. And also I can find out that the government investment crowds out the private sector before crisis but they have changed to the complementary relationship after crisis with deflationary effect. The opposite structural change relationship would also have between government consumption and private sector with inflationary effect.

中國의 WTO加入이후 무역환경변화와 韓國의 대응방안

金誠恂(Seong-Suhn Kim) 한국관세학회 2004 관세학회지 Vol.5 No.1

The paper is aimed at providing a light on the opportunities and the threatening factors on Korea in doing business with China by analyzing the effects of trade and investment conditions with China and the effect on the China industry after China's joining of WTO. After joining WTO, China's economic structure has greatly changed as the new reforms and open policies take into effect and move the economy next level up. The joining of WTO has reformed China's domestic systems and policies and conformed them to an international standard thus show expansion of China's market economy and rapid growth. Clarity of China's trade policies and foreign investment policies also has elevated. And China would lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers enabling foreign corporations and their goods and services to be viable in China. The results show that China's joining of WTO can be regarded as a great opportunity and threat to Korea simultaneously. It would make China's market more accessible to Korea and at the same time Korean would be in fierce competition with other foreign companies. In considering the above, Korean government needs to redirect trade policies and corporations from the perspective of long-term strategies in advancing into the Chinese market.

공공 부채가 경제성장에 미치는 효과 분석

김성순 ( Seong Suhn Kim ) 한국재정정책학회 2014 財政政策論集 Vol.16 No.4

This paper investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth using a dataset covering a broad cross-section of OECD countries by panel regression. I specifically consider 20 countries including Korea during the period 1985-2012. The empirical results support the findings that the expansion of public debt is associated with strong negative effect on real GDP growth rate per capita but has non-linear relationship between them. But increasing fiscal budget surplus is associated with positive economic growth per capita. I also find that improvement on human capital formation and trade openness have strong positive effect on economic growth, on the other while the measure of growth volatility in the economy and increase in risk premiums may have adverse effect on economic growth.

SVAR모형을 이용한 정부지출과 조세 변화의 경제적 효과 분석

김성순 ( Seong Suhn Kim ) 한국재정학회(구 한국재정공공경제학회) 2007 재정논집 Vol.22 No.1

SPC의 한국경영사학적 위상

김성순(Seong Suhn Kim) 한국경영사학회 2005 經營史學 Vol.37 No.-

The paper studies the status of SPC in Korean business history. SPC has 60 years history. Among food & beverage industry in Korea this group has been a comparatively long history. This group produces and specialized mainly bakery such as bread, cake, donuts and ice cream. Late Hur, Changsung has established Sangmidang in 1945 which is the origin of SPC and has grown up Samlip food Co. Ltd, and his son Hur Youngin has established another company Shany Co. Ltd. in 1972 and more developed this company and merge Samlip after currency crisis, it has become SPC with top bakery and franchise industry in Korea now. The group consists of Shany, Samlip, Paris Croissant and BR Korea. SPC has grown relatively slowly compared to other firms but has grown very solidly to concentrate only bakery industry. SPC played a positive role in economic development of Korea as the following way: Firstly, it led food industry in Korea and devoted itself to the enhancement of people s food life. Secondly it pursued the vertical integration of food industry and diversified it in order to improve the quality of the products with freshness. SPC has shown that it has remarkable features in business history : SPC has established desirable relationships between employers and employees, and the relationship between the company and consumers through supplying high qualified and fresh products, and human oriented management. Such successful achievements of SPC would have come from mainly the ability and integrity of Late Hur, Changsun and chairman Hur, Youngin.

중국경제의 내수변화가 한국 경제성장에 미치는 영향 분석

김성순 ( Kim Seong Suhn ),최명식 ( Choi Myoung Shik ),김인지 ( Jin Renzhi ) 경남대학교 산업경영연구소 2018 지역산업연구 Vol.41 No.3

중국은 성장속도의 둔화와 함께 그에 맞는 적절한 경제구조 변화를 시도하고 있다. 투자에서 소비가 주도하는 내수로, 글로벌 가치사슬의 하단에서 상단으로, 제조업에서 서비스 중심으로의 산업구조의 전환을 추진하고 있다. 중국의 내수시장 확대 변화에 따라 국내 최종수요가 성장하고 그 최종수요 및 수입생산의 구성 변화가 한국의 경제성장에 상당한 영향을 미치고 있다. 글로벌 금융위기 이후는 이전에 비해 중국 최종소비의 한국에 대한 영향력이 급감했다. 실질GDP는 0.52%에서 0.24%로, 제조업은 0.76%에서 0.44%, 서비스업은 0.48%에서 0.19%로 대폭 감소했다. 중국이 성장정체와 경기부양, 수출대체 내수중심 산업화, 서비스산업 확대와 산업 고도화, 국내 완결형 산업화로 변화되는 가운데 한국의 대중수출이 감소하고 있으므로 내수용, 서비스, 첨단산업 수출로의 전환이 필요하다. 중국 내수시장의 변화가 한국의 성장에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 한국의 수출확대를 위한 시사점을 모색하기 위해 수행된 본 연구에서 향후에는 글로벌 가치사슬의 학대를 반영한 부가가치에 기초하여 수출입 및 무역수지를 측정할 필요가 있다. This paper examines the impacts of China’s new economy on Korea’s growth. We investigate the effects of China's recent structural changes accommodating the slowing economic growth on the Korea's growth and industry by using the long-run equilibrium approach. We find that the impacts of China's final consumption on the Korea’s growth have significantly declined since the financial crisis. Also, Korea’s exports to China has decreased. These results are a recent result of China’s demand creation by slowing growth, domestic demand-led-industrialization to substitute exports, and increase in service industry. This suggests that Korea needs to be switched into exports to China for domestic consumption, service, and high-tech industry. Future research should investigate these effects by using value-added trade required to set policies from a global value chain perspective.

조세 구조 변화가 경제성장에 미치는 효과 분석

김성순 ( Seong Suhn Kim ) 한국재정학회 2014 재정학연구 Vol.7 No.1

OECD 국가들을 중심으로 조세구조의 변화가 장기적인 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 오차수정항을 도입한 패널회귀분석을 통해 살펴보았다. 그 분석 결과, 조세중립차원에서 소비세 및 재산세를 인하하고 소득세를 인상하는 경우 장기 경제성장에 유의한 부정적 영향을 미치고, 소득세를 개인소득세, 법인소득세 및 사회보장기금으로 나누었을 때, 이들 모두 경제성장에 부정적 영향을 미치나, 그 중 법인소득세의증가 보다 개인소득세 및 사회보장기금의 증가가 경제성장을 더 크게 저해함을 보여준다. 반면 소득세를 인하하고 소비 및 재산세를 인상하는 경우는 경제성장에 장기적으로 긍정적 영향을 미치고 이를 소비세와 재산세로 나누었을 경우 재산세보다 소비세 증가가 경제성장에 유의하게 더 긍정적 영향을 미친다는 것으로 보여준다. 이 결과는 복지수요 등으로 재정지출에 필요한 재원조달을 늘리고자 할 때 소득세 증가보다 소비세 증대를 통해 조달하는 것이 장기적으로 경제성장을 저해하기 않고 오히려 성장촉진에 도움을 줄 수 있음을 시사한다. This paper investigates the relationship between tax composition and long run economic growth using a dataset covering a broad cross-section of OECD countries by panel regression with error correction form. I specifically consider 20 countries including Korea during the period 1985-2010. The empirical results support the findings that the expansion of increasing income taxes while reducing consumption and property taxes is associated with negative growth over the long run, but a reduction in income taxes while increasing consumption taxes and property taxes is also associated with positive faster growth. I also find that among income taxes, personal income taxes and social security contributions have a stronger negative effect on growth than corporate income taxes, on the other while among consumption and property taxes, consumption taxes have a stronger positive effect on economic growth than property taxes.