유연성 소자용 금속 전극의 신뢰성 연구 동향

김병준,Kim, Byoung-Joon 한국마이크로전자및패키징학회 2013 마이크로전자 및 패키징학회지 Vol.20 No.4

Recently, various types of flexible devices such as flexible displays, batteries, e-skins and solar cell panels have been reported. Most of the researches focus on the development of high performance flexible device. However, to realize these flexible devices, the long-term reliability should be guaranteed during the repeated deformations of flexible devices because the direct mechanical stress would be applied on the electronic devices unlike the rigid Si-based devices. Among various materials consisting electronics devices, metal electrode is one of the weakest parts against mechanical deformation because the mechanical and electrical properties of metal films degrade gradually due to fatigue damage during repeated deformations. This article reviews the researches of fatigue behavior of thin metal film, and introduces the methods to enhance the reliability of metal electrode for flexible device.

유연성 기판에 사용되는 전해 동박의 절곡 및 굴곡 피로 파괴와 인장 특성과의 관계

김병준,정명혁,황성환,이호영,이성원,전기도,박영배,주영창,Kim, Byoung-Joon,Jeong, Myeong-Hyeok,Hwang, Sung-Hwan,Lee, Ho-Young,Lee, Sung-Won,Cbun, Ki-Do,Park, Young-Bae,Joo, Young-Cbang 한국마이크로전자및패키징학회 2011 마이크로전자 및 패키징학회지 Vol.18 No.1

유연성 기판 상의 동박의 반복 굽힘 변형에 따른 절곡 빛 굴곡 신뢰성과 인장 특성과의 관계를 규명하기 위해 4종류의 동박 시편의 절곡 신뢰성 실험, 굴곡 선뢰성 실험과 인장 실험을 실시하였다. 절곡 신뢰성 실험은 동박에 5.3%의 굽힘 변형률을, 굴독 선뢰성 실험은 동박에 2.0%의 굽힘 변형률을 반복적으로 인가하면서 전기 저항 변화를 관찰하고 피로 수명을 평가하였다. 또한, 4가지 시편의 인장 실험을 통해 탄성 계수, 항복 강도, 연장 강도, 인성 등의 재료 물성을 구한 결과, 연성과 인성이 우수한 시편의 경우 절곡 및 굴곡 신뢰성이 크게 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 탄성 계수, 항복 강도의 경우 절곡 및 굴곡 신뢰성과 큰 연관성을 보이지 않았다. 이는 절곡 및 굴곡 변형에 의한 금속의 피로 파괴 거동은 재료의 파괴 인성과 밀접한 관계를 가지기 때문으로 판단된다. Folding endurance, bending fatigue and monotonic tensile tests of 4 kinds of Cu foil on flexible substrate was performed to investigate the relationship between folding or bending endurances and tensile characteristics. The repeated 5.3 or 2.0% strain was applied to Cu foil in folding endurance test or bending fatigue test while monitoring the electrical resistance. Elastic modulus, yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, ductility, and toughness were obtained by monotonic tensile test on the same samples. The Cu foil with higher toughness and ductility showed higher reliabilities in folding or bending fatigue. However, elastic modulus and yield strength did not show any relationship with folding and bending reliability. This is because the failures of Cu foil by folding or bending fatigue were closely related to the fracture energy of metal.

가치투자전략의 장기적 성과 분석

김병준(Byoung Joon Kim),이필상(Phil Sang Lee) 한국증권학회 2006 한국증권학회지 Vol.35 No.3

OECD 20개국 재산세의 성장억제효과 분석

김병준 ( Byoung Joon Kim ) 국제지역학회 2021 국제지역연구 Vol.25 No.4

본 연구에서는 OECD 주요 20개국에서의 재산세가 경제성장에 미치는 영향력을 추정하였다. OECD 20개국에서의 1991~2019년의 29개년간 패널 데이터 회귀분석을 통한 분석 결과, GDP 대비 재산세로 측정한 재산세담세율은 직접적으로 연간 경제성장률에 유의미한 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났고 물가상승률, 조세부담률, 주택가격상승률 등의 영향력을 감안하여 구조방정식에서 축소형(reduced form) 방정식으로 추정한 2차적 효과는 직접적 부정 효과의 17배에 달할 정도로 엄청나게 큰 부정효과를 미치고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 축소형 방정식에서 나타난 재산세담세율은 조세부담률과 주택가격상승률에 대하여는 각각 유의미한 양(+)의 영향을 받고 있고 전년도 물가상승률에 대하여는 유의미한 음(-)의 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이같은 추정결과는 재산세의 경제성장에 미치는 부정적 효과가 소득세의 영향력보다 미미하거나 오히려 반대로 나타난다는 기존의 연구결과들과 배치되는 것으로서 이는 본 논문이 OECD 내에서 재산세에 대한 세율결정이 다른 세원들까지 포함한 조세부담률과 소비자물가에 포함되지 않는 주택가격상승률 및 소비자물가지수로 측정한 물가상승률 등 3가지를 기본 영향변수로 책정한 정책변수로서의 특성을 고려하여 분석하였기 때문인 것으로 풀이된다. 이같은 분석결과를 감안하면 최근 문제가 제기되는 한국에서의 급격한 부동산관련 세율인상은 잠재성장력을 감안하여 속도조절 등 재조정될 필요성이 있는 것으로 판단된다. This study analyzes property tax effects on economic growth in 20 OECD countries. Using panel data regression technique I examined both primary and secondary tax effects from the property tax to GDP ratio on economic growth rate in these 20 OECD countries for the recent 29 sample years. The primary direct effect is shown to be significantly negative, -0.18 with the additional three nominal control variables composed of annual consumer price index based inflation, CPI unincluded annual housing price return, and annual tax burden ratio and the four real GDP component control variables of consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. The secondary indirect effect was estimated from the reduced-form equation, the 2 stage panel data regression after substituting fitted values of property taxes from the primary estimation results of panel data regression by those above three control variables and this is shown to be significant -3.01 far greater in negative values than the direct effect. Meanwhile, in the primary first stage panel data regression results, impacts of both tax burden ratio and housing price return on property taxes are significantly positive, respectively whereas that of inflation on property taxes turns out to be significantly negative. These results are confrontational with the previous studies arguing that negative effect from property tax to economic growth is quite slightly small or even counterfactual compared to that of income tax The reason can be deduced from the fact that property tax is treated as a policy variable affected by such market variables as housing price return and inflation and another policy variable, tax burden ratio in this study. Considering these results, the recent rapid hike of real estate taxes by Korean government is needed to readjust in line with the economic growth potential.

국민연금기금의 투자성과 및 위험전이효과 분석

김병준 ( Byoung Joon Kim ) 한국생산성학회 2017 生産性論集 Vol.31 No.1

In this study, I examine the fund performance of National Pension Service (NPS) of Korea and analyzed the mutual risk transfer (volatility spillover) effect between Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and several investment sectors of NPS funds. Major findings are as belows. Firstly, almost every sector of NPS funds reveals favorable performance on the basis of risk-adjusted return measure such as Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, and Jensen`s alpha. However, it is required to enhance the share of stock investment in the near future resulting from the fact that annual profitability of stock on average is far better than that of bond in the past 14 years according to the additional separate analysis. Secondly, the volatility shock from the NPS` domestic stock sector shows significant positive impact on the KOSPI market through the estimation results of multivariate GARCH(generalized autorgressive conditional heteroscedasticity) model. Accordingly, it is needed that NPS should decrease the weight of domestic stock investment as well as increase the weight of overseas stock investment to mitigate the volatility shock of the overall domestic stock market from the NPS stock holdings. Thirdly, down shock from the NPS` bond holding sector is shown to be transferred to the Korean stock market as well as the NPS` stock holding sector. This means that NPS` bond holding sector as the biggest institutional bond investor in Korea may lead to the stock market disturbances. Accordingly, it is desirable to decrease the domestic bond investment weight gradually as well as to increase the foreign stock investment weight in order to mitigate the shock from the NPS` bond holding sector. Finally, it is required to accelerate the globalization of investment target, specialization of risk management process instead of satisfying the past favorable fund performance of NPS if we remember the fact that NPS` pension fund is the last resort for the basic senior life planning of the ordinary people in Korea.

지방정부 공무원 조직만족도에 관한 연구: 비보상형(non-compensatory) 모형을 중심으로

김병준 ( Byoung Joon Kim ),주재복 ( Jae Bok Joo ),박해육 ( Hee-yug Park ) 국민대학교 사회과학연구소 2017 社會科學硏究 Vol.30 No.1

본 연구의 목적은 지방정부 공무원들의 조직만족도 연구과 관련하여 그동안 기존연구에서 고려하지 않았던 비보상형(non-compensatory) 모형을 적용해 보고자 하는데 있다. 전반적인 조직만족도와 이에 영향을 줄 수 있는 여러 세부 요소 만족 및 영형요인들(직무자체, 직무환경, 보수수준, 직업 안전성, 직무몰입, 소속부서성과, 직무관련 구성원과의 관계에 대한 만족)간에 어떠한 관계를 맺고 있는지, 나아가 조직에 오래 근무하며 경험과 전문성이 높아진 공무원 집단(20년 이상 근무)과 이제 막 지방정부 조직의 일원으로 근무하기 시작한 공무원들(5년 미만 근무) 간에 서로 다른 조직 만족도 의사 결정 전략을 가지고 있는 지에 대하여 군과 시의 서로 다른 두 형태의 사례를 대상으로 한 공무원 대상 설문조사 자료(data)를 분석하여 결과를 도출하였다(보성군 n=686 & 통영시 n=711). 분석 결과, `시` 형태의 지방정부와는 달리 `군` 형태의 지방정부에서, 재직기간이 5년 이하인 공무원 집단(초심자, novices)이 20년 이상 근무한 공무원 집단(전문가, experts)과 달리 비보상형 모형, 그 중에서도 접속(conjunctive)형 조직 만족도 의사결정 전략을 사용하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석 결과에 대하여 본 연구는 학문·이론적 그리고 실무적인 함의를 고찰 하였다. Despite a number of studies on local government officials` satisfaction level on their organizations, the application of non-compensatory model is still in the early stage. This study attempted to analyze the relationship between overall satisfaction and sub elements of the level of organizational satisfaction such as satisfaction on job itself, job environment, salary, job stability, job engagement, organizational performance, relationship with co-workers. Based on the previous study which insists that there is a meaningful difference between novices and experts on their judgement, two local governments were investigated as case studies. This study found that novices utilized conjunctive strategies of non-compensatory model in Si government. It means that newly employed members of public organization are more risk averse type of personnel and they followed the non-compensatory model of judgement and decision making. This finding is theoretically and practically interesting one toward scholars and practitioners in the public sector at the local level.

한,미간 주식 및 채권시장에서의 상호전이효과

김병준 ( Byoung Joon Kim ) 한국생산성학회 2014 生産性論集 Vol.28 No.4

This paper analyzes mutual spillover effects between stock and bond markets of Korea and US, using the multivariate GARCH-BEKK (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity - Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner) framework without any prior restrictions on conditional correlations among time-varying volatilities of these four market returns. The whole sample period consists of 3,914 days from December, 1997 to December, 2012. In particular, the Global Financial Crisis Period of July, 2008 to June is additionally chosen in this analysis. In particular, separate multivariate asymmetric GARCH model by GJR(Glosten, Jaganathan, and Runkle) is used to check further asymmetric volatility transmission effect in the unexpected up-market shock and the unexpected down-market shock. Additionally, global common factors such as difference of T-Bill rate and change of VIX(US S&P 500 volatility index) and country-specific factors such as change of foreign exchange rate are set up as explanatory variables in the mean equations of the above-mentioned GARCH model to differentiate their own special shock factors of these two stock and bond markets. Major findings in this analysis are as follows. First, shock spillovers from the unexpected change of returns in these two stock markets are generally more active than those in the bond markets, regardless of model forms of symmetric or asymmetric GARCH-BEKK. Second, shock spillovers from US to Korea are generally stronger than those from Korea to US in both of the total sample period and the Global Financial Crisis times. Third, stock market shock spillovers are more active in the Global Financial Crisis times than in the total sample period. Fourth, particularly in the bond market, some positive shock spillovers, although not significant, from Korea to US is found to exist in the Global Financial Crisis times. With all these four findings above, Korean stock market is found to be fragile to the outside shocks. Therefore, some policy designs need to begin with mitigating shock spillovers from outside in the Korean stock market.

한국에서의 무역, 주가, 환율 상호간의 파급효과 분석

김병준 ( Byoung Joon Kim ) 한국생산성학회 2015 生産性論集 Vol.29 No.2

In this study, I examine the mutual spillover effect among trade balance, stock price, and foreign exchange rate denoted as value of Korean won per one US dollar during the monthly sample period from the beginning of 1980 to the end of 2013, using the multivariate GARCH BEKK model framework. Major findings are as follows. First, from the estimation results of the mean equations in the multivariate GARCH model, trade balance is positively affected by rise in the stock market and won depreciation in the foreign exchange market, reassuring the price effect in the capital market and J curve effect in the foreign exchange market. Second, in the symmetric GARCH BEKK model estimation of the variance equations in the above multivariate model, the shock from the capital market affects the volatility of trade balance positively, whereas that from the trade balance does not affect the capital market, showing the transmission mechanism between capital and real markets. Third, on the contrary, in the asymmetric GARCH BEKK model estimation of the variance equations in the above model, the downside shock from the trade balance change has a significant positive effect on the stock market volatility whereas those from the stock and exchange market do not show any positive spillover effects to the trade balance. Fourth, results from the sub-sample period of pre- and post- IMF bailout program of 1997 are different from those from the total sample period owing to the difference of openness in the capital market. The downside shocks from the trade balance and the stock market to the foreign exchange market in the pre-IMF subsample period turned out to be significantly negative, whereas those in the post-IMF subsample period showed significantly positive signs. This can be explained as an evidence of well development of foreign exchange market liberalization plan during the post-IMF bailout program. In other words, foreign exchange market during the post-IMF period reflects changes in real and capital markets more evidently. It is confirmed that continuous trade surplus is essential for stock market stabilization from the above results.

국제 ODA 전문가가 본 새마을 운동의 가치와 미래방향

김병준 ( Byoung Joon Kim ) 한국행정학회 2023 한국행정학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2023 No.1

한국 사적연금의 개혁방안

김병준(Byoung Joon Kim) 경희대학교 국제지역연구원 2023 아태연구 Vol.30 No.2

한국의 퇴직연금은 2005년부터 기존의 퇴직금 제도를 대체하여 시작되었으나 중도인출 비중 증가, 절대 다수의 퇴직일시금으로의 인출 경향 등으로 연금으로서의 기능이 퇴색하고 있고 퇴직연금기금 운용 또한 회사별 계약형으로 편중되어 자산운용을 원금보존형 예적금에 행하여 운용성과가 OECD 회원국들 중 최저 수준에 머물고 있는 문제점이 노출되고 있다. 이러한 유명무실한 한국의 퇴직연금을 개혁하기 위해 본 연구에서는 퇴직연금의 전면강제화 실시를 제안한다. 이때 연금강제화는 영국의 NEST, 호주의 Superannuation을 본받아 운용정책을 가입자의 지정 없이도 장기분산투자로 행할 수 있는 디폴트 옵션(Default Option)제도 도입을 제안하고 사전에 예정급여액을 설정하지 않는 대신 통일기금의 조성을 통한 집단형 확정기여형(Collective Defined Contribution: CDC) 체제도 추가적으로 제안한다. 이때 강제적 보험료의 부담을 안고 있는 영세기업들에 대하여는 일정 부분의 정부보조금 지급도 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 추가적으로 이직자들이나 중도퇴사자들을 위해서는 별도로 현행 실시 중인 개인형 IRP(Individual Retirement Pension) 제도를 CDC제도와 병존하여 유지하되 그 운용은 철저한 성과중심 체제로 유도할 필요성이 있다. 이와 같은 퇴직연금을 중심으로 한 사적연금의 개혁방안은 현재 기금고갈에 직면한 국민연금의 개편안과 함께 퇴직 이후의 국민들의 기초적 생활보장을 할 수 있도록 설계되는 데 이바지할 것으로 기대된다. Korean retirement pension system began in 2005 replacing the existing severance benefit, but now unergoes fading function of providing annuity for pension holders’ old age life safety together with the increasing weight of withdrawal and interim payment before maturity and tendency for lump sum payments instead of annuity by absolute majority of participants. Moreover, long-term performance of Korean retirement pension funds ranks the bottom in OECD member countries because of exceptionally high weight on guaranteed investment certificates among total invested assets. For the remedy of these bad situations, I suggest mandatory annuitization as a reform plan on the Korean retirement pensions benchmarking UK NEST (National Employment Savings Trust) and Australian Superannuation by introducing default options through which pension fund managers can invest global diversified assets without prior notice or permission from the participants and by replacing the existing three types of pensions of DB (defined benefit), DC (defined contribution), and IRP (individual retirement pension) with the newly designed fully funded collective DC (CDC) type pension system. Additionally, I recommend maintenance of exiting IRP typed funds with exposure of more competitive market conditions centering on the fund performances for the sake of transferers and resigners from their jobs without working until the retirement age. This reform plan on the retirement pension is expected to contribute to overall improvement of old age life stability with another reform on the NPS (National Pension System) which faces the future exhaustion of accumulated assets in 2055. In case of separation of Basic Income from NPS and formation of newly suggested welfare income supporting plan such as ‘Safety Income’ by combining this separated Basic Income, Public Aid comprised of Basic Living Recipients and Next Lower Income Earner, and EITC (earned income tax credit), the reform plan on the NPS can be easily achieved with increasing its pension contribution rate by only 3 percent point. I think average Korean pension income replacement ratio can be reached to more than 50% level if these two reform plans on each private and public pensions can be successfully completed.