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탈북자 면접조사를 통해 본 최근 북한주민의 대남인식 변화
김병로 ( Phi Lo Kim ) 서울대학교 통일평화연구원 2014 통일과 평화 Vol.6 No.2
본 논문은 서울대 통일평화연구원이 2014년 6월에 실시한 탈북자 면접조사를 바탕으로 북한주민의 최근 대남인식의 특징과 변화를 분석해 보고자 한다. 대남인식은 남한의존재인식, 대남인지도, 남한의 대북지원 관련 등 크게 세 영역으로 분류하였다. 2014년 북한주민의 대남인식은 협력의식이 약화되고 적대적 의식이 강화되었으며, 안보불안이상승하였다. 대남인지도와 대북지원 인지도 및 대북지원 효용성 등 전반적인 대남인지도는 낮아졌다. 그러나 절대수치로 보면 북한주민의 대남인식은 긍정적 부분이 더 넓게 형성되어 있다. 남북한 간 정치군사적 갈등에도 불구하고 북한주민 절반 이상이 남한을 협력대상으로 간주하고 있으며 같은 민족과 동포라는 의식이 아직은 더 강하다. 북한주민의 의식을 남한주민과 비교하면, 남북 간 이질성 인식이나 상호인식, 안보불안 등의 여러 영역에서 매우 유사한 구조를 띠고 있으나, 북한주민이 남한주민에 비해 상대를 조금 더 긍정적으로 바라보는 것으로 나타난다. 이러한 결과는 탈북자 표본의 편향 때문이 아니라 주변국 관계와 한류의 영향으로 형성된 북한주민의 의식구조의 특성에 기인한 것이라 할 수 있다. This study analyzes the recent changes in North Korean attitudes toward South Korea, based on interviews conducted in June 2014 by the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, Seoul National University. North Korean attitudes toward South Korea can be divided into three areas: perception of South Korea, knowledge about South Korea, and attitudes about South Korea`s policies toward the North. North Korean perceptions of South Korea have become less cooperative and more hostile; awareness of insecurity has increased; and awareness of South Korea and humanitarian assistance to the North by the South decreased in 2014. However, a majority of North Korean people still consider the South as a partner despite latent and actual political and military conflicts. This indicates that a strong feeling of belonging to the same ethnic group still exists in North Korea. Compared to South Korean attitudes toward the North, both groups share many attitudinal similarities, such as awareness of the other Korea, mutual recognition of heterogeneity between the two Koreas, and inter-Korea security concerns. There are also differences, most notably that North Koreans tend to regard the South as a better partner than the other way around. These results may be attributed to the influence of South Korea`s cultural wave on North Korean attitudes and the North`s relations with its neighbors, rather than bias contained in this sample group.
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연구논문 : 실용주의 대북정책 구상 -대북지원과 인권의제를 중심으로
김병로 ( Phi Lo Kim ) 서울대학교 통일평화연구원 2009 통일과 평화 Vol.1 No.1
본 논문은 이명박 정부의 등장 이후 제시된 대북 인권·지원 정책이 북한의 거친 반발에 부딪혀 정책실행의 한계를 드러내고 있는 상황에서 북한의 인권개선과 인도주의 지원을 실제적으로 도모할 수 있는 전략과 방법을 제시하고 있다. 논문은 먼저 대북 인권·지원 정책의 원칙으로 진정성을 담고 있는 인도주의 정신과 실용주의 방법, 그리고 수단·자원으로서의 소프트파워의 활용을 강조한다. 접근방법으로서는 인적접촉과 인도주의, 정치적 인권을 분리·병행하는 인권전략을, 그리고 북한의 사회개발 차원에서 종합플랜과 실행계획을 포함한 대북지원 전략의 필요성을 강조한다. 이러한 전략에 기초하여 각각의 이슈에 대해 사안별 쟁점과 문제점이 무엇인지 정확히 파악하고 상황과 현실에 맞는 합리적 대안을 제시한다. 마지막으로 실용주의 대북정책 구상의 실현 가능성을 담보할 수 있는 여섯 가지 정책과제를 제안한다. This paper attempts to suggest pragmatic strategies and methods to be able to implement the policies of human rights and humanitarian assistance toward North Korea in the situation that the new Lee Myung-Bak administration is being stalemated in performing its policies due to the North`s resistance. The paper first suggests basic principles of pragmatic North Korea policy, in which a humanitarian spirit, utilitarian approach and the use of soft power are emphasized. The paper also proposes pragmatic approaches on the human rights and humanitarian issues, in which separate-and-parallel strategy is encouraged in solving human rights issues whereas such strategy as a comprehensive development scheme with action plans is promoted in working out the humanitarian assistance issues for North Korea. Based upon this strategy, this paper presents rational alternatives which is proper to each situation of the agenda after accurately analyzing the points in dispute and a controversial. And lastly, the paper suggests six policy proposals that is able to guarantee the effective implementing the conception of pragmatic North Korea policy.
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김병로 ( Phi Lo Kim ) 북한연구학회 2014 북한연구학회보 Vol.18 No.2
The purpose of this paper is to analyze social changes in recent years in North Korea, based upon the North Korean Refugees Survey data conducted in 2014 by Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, Seoul National University. Since the Survey data were collected from 149 North Korean refugees who left their country after January 2013, they surely reflect the recent social changes in North Korea. As the public security control which had been heightened with the launch of Kim Jong-un regime has become weakened since 2013, private economic activities were restored to the level of the previous year, and the living standard of the people was generally improved. However, the inflation and poverty are still serious problems. As activities of weekly summation session were strengthened, geographical movement of residents was halt and political criticisms on the government sharply decreased. While growing individualism, skepticism on the future of socialism, and preference of capitalist system are dominant social trend in North Korea, the pride of the Juche idea and support rate for the first Chairman Kim Jong-un became boosted among North Korean citizens in recent years. Apparently, this is partly because of the effective working of propaganda, but basically due to reflection of the popular support for the recent government policies such as the grand construction projects and cultural activities pursued by the newly launched regime.
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김병로 ( Phi Lo Kim ) 북한연구학회 2011 북한연구학회보 Vol.15 No.1
This paper attempts to forecast possible changes in domestic politics in case of third inter- Korean summit being held under current Lee Myung-bak administration, and to evaluate the influences of inter-Korean summit on the topography of domestic politics in Korea. For this purpose, it reviews first of all the past two inter-Korean summits, and then, based upon the past experiences it analyzes how the third summit will have an influence on the supporting base of Lee Myung-bak administration. Focusing on the variables of region, ideology, generation, in particular, it examines how the summit-related issues are inter-woven with international environment, civil society, and political community in general, so as to evaluate the overall impact of the summit on political changes under current administration. This paper argues the third inter-Korean summit will expand the base of support for the ruling party by relieving the security nervousness and the concern over China`s absorption of North Korea among the people, particularly those in central and metropolitan area. It argues, however, that it might heat the pouring debate again in the euphoria of the rising critical perception on North Korea and so as to expand so-called South-South conflict due to growing internal diversification among media and NGOs. It is expected that each party begins policy competition over North Korean issue, so that even the pro-Park in Grand National Party as well as Democratic Party and Liberty Forward Party will start to launch policy competition by differentiating from that of the current administration.
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