중국 에너지정책의 발전양상과 특징에 대한 연구 -에너지발전전략행동계획(2014-2020)을 중심으로-

곽복선 ( Bok Sun Kwag ) 한중사회과학학회 2015 한중사회과학연구 Vol.13 No.1

The rapid growth of China’s economy has brought the expanding of demand for energy and has increased the degree of dependency on foreign energy resources due to her relative energy scarcity. At the same time, China’s inefficient use of energy has brought difficulties to her environments and the sustainable development of economy. Because of these circumstances, securing scare energy resources, smooth long-term self-support of energy and the efficient use of energy became major national agendas in China. In order to meet these problems, China published her first individual energy policy in 1997. Since then, China has reflected her energy policy in Five-Year Plans(or Guidelines) for National Economy and Social Development that is the basis for various economic plans. Especially, during the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan for National Economy and Social Development (the 12th Five-Year Guideline), China published major energy policies that will determine future of China’s economy such as China’s Energy Policy (2012) White Paper, Energy Development Strategy Action Plan and The 12th Five Year Plan for Energy Development, Considering these situations, this study diachronically researches various plans and guidelines from the 6th Five-Year Plan to the 12th Five-Year Guideline. At the same time, this paper synchronically studies various individual energy policies published during the 12th Five Year Guideline period in order to understand development aspect of characteristics of China’s energy policies and to grasp the direction of her energy policies and development strategy in the future. Through this study, we can know that in early days, China’s energy policies had been carried forward for securing energy resources and development of energy industry. But, drawing near to the period of the 12th Five-Year Guideline, China’s energy policies are developing into the multifaceted and overall level policy in connection with improvement of industrial structure, solving the problems of environmental pollutions, coping with climate change and sustainable growth etc. Especially, through Energy Development Strategy Action Plan which was disclosed to the public in 2014, China has established a clear cut strategic line for energy policy until 2020, such strategy as saving energy resources first, self-support, low-carbon green growth and creative innovation. Those circumstances imply high possibility for future cooperations between China and Korean government and private companies in energy industry and related fields.

중국 5·5계획의 편제 과정과 특징에 대한 연구

곽복선 ( Kwag Bok-sun ),김동하 ( Kim Dong-ha ) 한중사회과학학회 2017 한중사회과학연구 Vol.15 No.1

본 연구는 중국의 제5차 5개년 계획(1976∼1980)의 편제 과정을 분석하고 그 특징과 평가를 통해 5·5계획의 함의를 도출하는 것을 연구목적으로 하고 있다. 이를 위해서 중국이 5개년 계획을 도입한 배경과 과정을 먼저 살펴보았으며, 이어서 5·5계획 편제와 집행 과정의 특징을 살펴보고 이를 근거로 문제점과 성과를 분석하여 평가했다. 이를 근거로 5·5계획이 가진 함의를 도출하였다. 분석결과 첫째, 5·5계획은 <10년규획강요>의 10개년 장기발전계획 중 전반부 계획으로써 입안, 집행되어 기존 5개년 경제발전계획이 보인 특성과는 다른 장기적 관점에서 진행된 경제개발 계획이었다. 둘째, 5·5계획은 중국정부가 선제적이며 주도적으로 경제발전계획 지표를 재조정한 계획이다. 문화대혁명의 종결, 개혁·개방 정책의 착수와 같은 중국 경제체제의 변화가 5·5계획 기간 내에 있었으며, 매번 이에 대응하여 발전계획 목표가 재조정되었다. 셋째, 여러차례의 수정, 조정, 재수정, 재조정 과정에도 불구하고, 5·5계획은 `4대 현대화`라는 기본 방침을 견지한 경제발전 계획이었다. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the footing of the Fifth 5-year plan(1976-1980) in China and derive the implications of the plan through the evaluation. To this end, We had looked at the background and process of 5-year plan in China first, followed studying the organization method and the features of Fifth 5-year plans. Also, assessed the plan by analyzing the problems and achievements as basis. Based on this, the implications with the plan were derived at the conclusion of this paper. The first, Fifth 5-year plans was born from 10-year Economic Development plans(1976∼1985). As a result, the plan has long-term perspective and enforced by the first half of 10-years plan in the way of long-term development plan. Also, the plan was quite differently conducted from the other 5-year plans in China. Second, Fifth 5-year plan was replaned and reorganized by Central government with initiative. The government proactively rebalance the indicators in the Fifth 5-year plan. During Fifth 5-year plan, Chinese suffered `the Cultural Revolution` and experienced reform and open-door policy. Respond to the changes in China`s economic system, Fifth 5-year plan was reorganized again to reach the new goal. Third, the plan was experienced many times of modification, adjustment, retouching. Despite the several restructuring process, `4 modernization plan` was basic policy of Fifth 5-year plan.

역내무역구조로 본 한중일 3국의 경제협력 필요성 연구

곽복선 ( Bok Sun Kwag ) 한중사회과학학회 2016 한중사회과학연구 Vol.14 No.1

Three countries; Korea, China and Japan have tried to participate in various multinational Free Trade Agreements while they push for a Free Trade Agreement(FTA) among them. In this situation, it remains to be seen whether it is necessary for three countries to promote their own close economic cooperation at practical level. Until now, there are many studies on the structure of intra-trade among them and the method of their economic cooperations including FTA. Those studies have mainly focused on possibilities of three countries’ economic cooperations through comprehensive research at industrial level. But this paper studied the structure of intratrade among them through analysing trading items on the base of HS Code Heading(4 digit) and tried to reason out necessities of three countries’economic cooperations. Through analysis of three countries’ intra-trade volume, several results are drawn as follows. Firstly, it is inferred that there are necessities of economic cooperations among them through the analysis of three countries’ economic positions in the world economy. Secondly, it is reasoned out the necessity of economic cooperation of two countries(Korea and Japan) with China through analysis of changes of other country’s shares in each country’s total trade volume. Thirdly, it is inferred that there are weaknesses in three countries’ intra-trade structure through analysis of export- import items’ concentrative ness and duplication. In order to remedy these weaknesses, it is reasoned out that it is necessary for three countries to make close economic cooperation. Lastly, through analysis of trade specialization index on export-import items of three countries’ intra-trade, it is inferred that there is relativity of competitiveness among them and Korea has more necessity of economic cooperation than China and Japan. In conclusion, it is shown that there are always necessities of economic cooperation among three countries and that for Korea, close economic cooperation with China and Japan are very important.

한ㆍ중 경제관계와 `일대일로(一帶一路)` 대응방향

곽복선 ( Kwag Bok Sun ) 현대중국학회 2016 現代中國硏究 Vol.18 No.3

이 글은 한·중 경제관계와 중국의 일대일로 전략에 대한 한국의 대응 방향을 분석한다. 중국정부가 2013년부터 추진해오고 있는 일대일로 전략에 대해 국내외 자료들은 주로 미·중의 세력 재균형, 사회간접자본 건설, 자원, 물류, 유라시아 이니셔티브와 연계 등 시각에서 다루고 있다. 본 논문에서는 시각을 달리하여 한국과 중국, 한국과 일대일로 국가들과의 무역, 투자 현황을 비교분석하고, 이를 통해 한국의 입장에서 일대일로전략에 대한 대응방향을 찾아보았다. 분석결과 한국의 입장에서 일대일로 국가들은 중국과 같은 정도의 중요성을 가지고 있으므로, 이들 국가들에 대한 진출은 중국이 주도하는 일대일로의 프레임 안에서의 신규 진출과 프레임 밖에서 기존의 진출을 확대하는 것이 모두 시도되어야 할 것이다. 한국의 진출이 부진하거나 중국의 주도권이 강한 지역에서는 중국과의 협력기반을 통해 진출해야하며, 동남아시아와 같이 기존의 경제협력 관계가 많은 지역은 기본적으로 한국의 독자적 진출가능 영역을 심화 확대하는 방향을 모색해야 한다. 중국과의 협력진출이 필요한 지역에서는 중국을 통해 현지 정부, 기업과 협력 프레임을 만드는 방향을 모색해야 하며, 가능한 경우 무역과 투자 자유화의 수준을 높이는 FTA같은 협력 프레임을 구축하는 방향으로 가야한다. 일대일로와 관련 중국 자체에 대한 한국의 대응방향은 유라시아 이니셔티브와 일대일로의 연결을 현실화하는 것은 물론, 서부지역과 푸젠성(福建省) 등 중국 내부의 일대일로 건설 중점지역에서의 중국과의 경제협력을 실제화 하는 것이 모색되어야 한다. 또한, 중국과는 이미 이루어져있는 한·중 FTA라는 경제교류 자유화 프레임을 강화하는 방향에 초점이 주어져야 하며, 이러한 협력기반 위에 일대일로 국가들에서 양국 경제협력이 이루어져야 한다. This paper attempts to analyze Korea-China economic relations and counter measures for Korea on China`s One Belt & One Road strategy. On One Belt & One Road strategy which is being pushed forward by China since 2013, many domestic and foreign papers mainly handle it from a viewpoint of power rebalancing between USA and China, SOC projects, energy resources development, logistic channels, Eurasia initiative etc. This paper studied comparatively on situations of trade volumes and FDI both of Korea-China and Korea-One Belt & One Road countries and tried to find out counter measures for Korea different from existing angles on One Belt & One Road strategy. As a result of analysis, it is known that One Belt & One Road countries have a same importance as China from Korea`s viewpoint. So, Korea should try to expand market developments in these countries within frame of One Belt & One Road led by China`s initiative and at the same time try to strengthen already existing footholds in those countries outside from that frame. Therefore, it is suggested as follows. In those countries where Korea has a weak basis or China has a great influence, Korea should enter those countries through cooperative relations with China and in those countries where Korea has established a good basis of economic cooperations as like ASEAN countries, Korea should expand and deepen her own domains regardless of China. In those regions where demand cooperative entering with China, Korea should construct cooperation frame with those countries` governments and companies through cooperative basis with China. and try to establish cooperative frames to promote level of liberalization on trade and investment as like FTA with them. Within China territory, Korea should try to connect Eurasia initiative and One Belt & One Road project and substantialize economic cooperations with China in core regions for One Belt & One Road project as like China`s western provinces and Fujian province. In addition to those cooperations, Korea should try to strengthen Korea-China FTA as a basic frame for economic exchange liberalization and on such basis, make an effort to create economic cooperations with China in One Belt & One Road countries.