기업 규모와 매입 거래 결제 기간에 대한 분위수 회귀 결과의 시사점 : 기업 간 동반성장연구 관점에서

강맹수 ( Maeng Soo Kang ),이군희 ( Gun Hee Lee ) 한국중소기업학회 2012 中小企業硏究 Vol.34 No.4

보증이 연계된 중소기업 온라인 역경매 대출이 대출금리에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

강맹수 ( Maeng Soo Kang ),권의종 ( Eui Jong Kwon ),이군희 ( Gun Hee Lee ) 한국금융연구원 2012 금융연구 Vol.26 No.2

Recently, the online reverse-auction guaranteed loan (ORAL) product has been launched at January 2011 by the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund (KODIT) as a financing support system for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). This product, the ORAL, was introduced for the first time in the world. Therefore, lots of questions and effectiveness from the ORAL product might be arising. A possible positive effect will be reducing loan rate on the loan due to the competition under this newly-developed online loan market. As Petersen and Rajan (1994, 1995) argued, long-term relationship between SMEs and banks could affect loan availability and loan rate. And the relationship would be damaged when loan market becomes more open and competitive. Also, Degryse and Ongena (2005) argued that geographical distance among competing banks could important factor to determine loan rate for SMEs. However, none of previous research shows any results about the relationship between SMEs and banks under the online reverse-auction loan market. This paper analyzes how the online reverse-auction loan market affects the loan rate to the SMEs. An effect of loan rate under the online reverse-auction loan market can be decomposed into a direct effect and an indirect effect. The direct effect implies loan rate changes due to the competition with at least two bank`s offer on the online reverse-auction loan market. We expect another shock might be appeared for affecting overall changes of loan rates to all SME after launching the ORAL product in the market. We call this shock as the indirect effect. The indirect effect appears under the bank`s consideration as an additional competition factor to prevent from losing their current customers on the online reverse- auction loan market. To identify these effects, we collect 31,566 guaranteed loan data between July 2010 and June 2011. The study shows three interesting results. Due to the competition in the online market, the ORAL product has the direct effect reducing 13~48.3 bps of loan rate across the industries and credit ratings. Secondly, the appearance of the ORAL product in the online market makes additional drop as 8.5~28.4 bps to all SME loans as the indirect effect. Finally, SMEs with average or below average credit rating (“B-class” or “C-class”) have bigger direct and indirect effect reducing loan rate than others. In summary, the online reverse-auction could make changes into the SME loan market more competitive with providing more substantial help to less creditworthy SMEs that have experienced difficulty to lending from the ordinary off-line loan market.

원청-하청 기업 간 거래 건전성 평가를 위한 동반성장지수의 개발

김범석(Bum Seok Kim),강맹수(Maeng Soo Kang),민재형(Jae Hyung Min) 한국경영학회 2013 Korea Business Review Vol.17 No.1

본 연구에서는 현재 정성적으로 평가가 이루어지고 있는 동반성장지수를 보완할 수 있는 계량적 동반성장지수를 개발하였다. 동반성장위원회의 동반성장 추진대책의 주요 이슈인 납품단가문제, 하도급계약, 기술탈취 등을 평가할 수 있는 적절한 회계비율을 선정하고, 각 문제를 진단하는 지수를 산출한 후, 이들을 통합하여 최종지수를 제안하였다. 그리고 이를 실증하기 위하여, 규모별로 세분화된 기업의 표본을 재표본방법(Bootstrapping)을 통해 선정하고 이에 대한 전반적인 분포를 확인하였다. 또한 산출된 동반성장지수가 거래 건전성을 평가하는 지표임을 확인하기 위해 지수에 따른 하청기업의 채무불이행 행태를 통계적으로 검증하였다. 실험결과, 납품단가, 거래조건, 상생협력 중에서는 거래조건에서, 업종 측면에서는 건설업에서 불공정한 거래가 많이 이루어짐을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 1차-2차 협력사 간의 지수는 대기업-1차 협력사 간의 지수에 비해 개선되어야 할 기업의 비율이 높게 나타나, 1차-2차 협력사 간의 동반성장지수의 산출 역시 필요함을 시사하였다. 또 제안한 동반성장지수에 따른 채무불이행 여부가 통계적으로 단조 증가한다는 사실을 통해 계량적 동반성장지수는 기업의 거래 건전성을 나타내는 지표로 활용 가능하며, 동시에 신속하고 객관적으로 산출가능하기 때문에 설문조사로 이루어지는 현행 동반성장지수의 한계점을 보완할 수 있는 대안지표로서의 가능성도 확인할 수 있었다. The major portion of South Korea`s economy can be characterized by MNC(Multi-National Corporation)-oriented export policy. Most SMEs(Small and Medium Enterprises) have been constantly striving to survive as subcontractors for large enterprises, which causes SMEs to be highly dependent on large ones. As a result, unfair business transaction has intensified polarization between large enterprises and SMEs. Such unfair business deals become common, and result in cost reduction and higher profits for large enterprises. On the contrary, SMEs are exposed to various financial risks including insolvency and default. However, numerous previous literature emphasize that if large enterprises and SMEs are mutually cooperated as SCM(Supply Chain Management) partners for win-win growth, the synergy effect would be immense. As SCM and win-win growth are getting more important these days, many enterprises put their focus on taking good care of their subcontractors. Realizing the seriousness of polarization between large enterprises and SMEs, the Korea government has implemented various policies in order to solve the problem and to encourage win-win growth for a sustainable business environment. Particularly, the Commission on Shared Growth for Large and Small Companies was established and developed a win-win growth index to filter unfair transactions between large and small companies, where the main evaluation entries were designed to diagnose unfair unit price problem, delay in payment and technical extortions. To develop the win-win growth index, they mainly surveyed SMEs` subjective view regarding the above problems. Especially, they focused on cooperation attitude of large enterprises. After the index was published by FKILSC(The Federation of Korean Industries Center for Large and Small Business Cooperation), they conducted a survey to measure the satisfaction level of the index; however, the survey score did not meet their expectation. The major negative issues raised regarding the survey were that it was lack of objectivity, and it did not measure the soundness of the transactions between the first vendors and the second ones among others. In this study, we suggest a quantitative win-win growth index to overcome the limitation of the current index developed mainly by a survey method. The first step to develop the index is to select three financial ratios concerning major conflicts disrupting fair business transactions between large enterprises and SMEs, which are rate of cost of goods sold, payable turnover period and debt ratio. Next, we calculate the values of these three respective indices to diagnose the problems by comparing the change rates of the above respective financial ratios of contractors and subcontractors. If the value of index is higher than 1.00, for example, it means that the contractor side is engaged in a unfair business transaction. Finally, we develop a quantitative win-win growth index by integrating these three indices. In this study, 32,405 firms` financial data and default data for the period of 3 years from 2007 to 2009 were used as a sample for the experiment. The data was segmented by industry and total asset size. We employ bootstrapping, a resampling method, to check overall distribution of the index. After creating the index, we subdivide its value on a scale of 4 grades; Superior (value below 1.00), Good (value between 1.00 and 1.50), Fair (value between 1.50 and 2.00), Poor (value over 2.00). In addition, in order to show the practical usefulness of the index such that it can precisely evaluate transaction soundness, we compare the index with SMEs` default ratios. The result of the experiment first shows that about 80% of the index values are under 1.50, which means most companies maintain a positive relationship between contractor and subcontractor. However, there still exist many unfair transactions such as delayed payment especially in construction industry. Secondly, the experiment shows that the ind

중소기업 금융시장에서의 결제정보 유용성에 대한 연구

조길연 ( Gilyeon Cho ),이군희 ( Gun Hee Lee ),강맹수 ( Maeng Soo Kang ) 한국생산성학회 2014 生産性論集 Vol.28 No.2

It is known that there is severe asymmetric information between SMEs and banks, and they have faced lower credit availability and higher average prices of bank loans than large firms. To improve the productivity and efficiency of financial institutions, it is necessary to collect and to share the credit information to reduce the asymmetric information. A number of previous research show that sharing credit information alleviates the information asymmetry, and consequently it can increase productivity of bank with lower loan price and enhanced loan availability. In this study, we empirically test to find out whether the relative payment period, which is a payment period adjusted by a firm`s internal and external factors, improves a default prediction model especially for the SMEs. The relative payment period is estimated by the regression of two accounting payment periods - account payables and receivables converson period - on firm`s size, industry, and increasing rate of sales. Firms with long relative payment period are identfied on the basis of 95% prediction interval of the regression. After that, this information is added to a default prediction model with other financial ratios, and we examine that it could enhance the model. To avoid the influence of outliers, all variables are transformed into a normal score based on the order statistics theory. Our empirical results show that the relative payment period has an additional information power to predict default, and especially, it is more useful information for small-sized firms than lager ones. These results indicate that trade payment information is useful to predict future default of SMEs. This study suggests that it is important to build up infra-structure to share SME`s credit information to improve productivity of financial institutions. Also, the financial supervisory should consider a system to collect and to share actual trade payment information to innovate Korean SMEs financial market.