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강신돈 국민대학교 경제연구소 2004 국민경제연구 Vol.27 No.-
본고는 수출에 의존하여 그나마 유지되고는 있으나 민간소비의 2년 연속 감소와 설비투자 및 건설투자의 위축으로 극심한 내수시장의 침체를 겪고 있는 가운데 금융자금은 부동산 투기와 같은 비생산적인 부문으로 비효율적으로 운용되고 있는 한국경제의 위기를 구조적 측면에서 진단하고 산업공동화와 경제의 양극화 심화 및 고용 없는 성장을 보이고 있는 우리 경제의 문제점을 분석하여 한국경제의 지속적 발전을 위해 금융이 담당하여야할 올바른 역할을 제시하고자한다. Korea's economy is being confronted with a difficult phase. Exports, on which Korea's economy is heavily dependent, has kept its economy afloat, however, the sluggish domestic demand and declining investment are dragging the growth rate of the nation drastically. As a result, Korea's economy is being stuck in high unemployment and recession. In addition, Korea is on the brink of severe financial crisis as most of financial capital is converging in real estate market, household debt is increasing dramatically, the number of credit delinquents is soaring, and domestic demand-oriented small and medium-sized companies are encountering serious financial difficulties. Korea is often taken as a good example of country which has successfully overcome the financial crisis of 1997-98. Yet What made Korea struggle in the middle of recession and face gloomy economic outlook? The answer can be found in lack of commitment to improve economic fundamentals of Korea, which is inherently unsound, only focusing on coming up with temporary measures for economic recovery without assessing the current economic situation exactly. It would be better if we had enough time to fix the problem, however, in reality we have no time to hesitate. Amid fierce competitions with developed countries and rapid economic growth of developing countries such as China, Korea is now facing a daunting challenge to survive. Furthermore, the launch of Doha Development Agenda opened a new era of globalization where markets are fully opened. Since the most urgent task for Korea is to be prepared for the change, the authorities concerned should examine the problem in object and financial economy and find ways to address this issue, rather than trying to giving lame excuses. In this regard, I would like to talk about the reality of Korea economy in terms of the real sector and the financial sector respectively. At the same time, I would like to seek proper roles and response of finance to ensure sustainable growth of Korean economy as well. The urgent problem of real sector is that the financial cash-flow is distorted in addition to the short term recession, instability and lack of investment and consequently this has been a great impediment to continuous growth of Korean economy. Therefore finding promising investment sector with growth engine and streamlining the material resources and human resources will be the most urgent necessity. Furthermore, most of the Korean companies, except few superior ones, are suffering from low efficiency and even their going business are threatened. The main factor of their insolvent operation lies on their excessive investment but primary reason can be found in high interest rate. After all, efficient fund operation of financial companies will bring the solution of high interest rate and it will establish solid foundation of constant economic growth. Finally, Korean financial industry has been strongly depended on loan business with high interest due to high financing cost but it is now in trouble because real sector companies have weak equity and lots of debt. In order to solve this problem, Korean financial companies must try their best to construct stable foundation for economic growth through lowering financing cost and the interest rate of their fund operation. In addition, financial industry should restore its original function to accommodate simultaneous growth of real sector and financial sector. In short, financial stability achieved from fulfilling its essential function will bring the stability of real sector and consequently the overall stable economic growth as well.
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姜信敦 국민대학교 경제연구소 1994 국민경제연구 Vol.17 No.-
The purpose of this paper is to present the fundamental direction of Korean trade structure adjustment throughout the analysis of trade structure, especially throughout the analysis of input-output structure, in order to accommodate th new international economic order and to cope with trade friction against the developed countries. According to the trade specialization structure it is found out that the import specialization from Japan-export specialization to U.S.A trade structure is characterizd in the Korean trade structure. And Korea also has the import specialization from-export specialization to E.C. 3 countries(England, West-Germany, France) trade structure. Moreover, it is difficult to avoid trade friction because this specialization structure is under the vertical processing division system. The resource-import specialization-the porcessing-goods export specialization trade sturcture with Asian area is growing more and more, and the export specilaization to ANIC? and Asia is escalating. Therefore, it is found that the possibility of trade friction against developing countries will be increasing in the near futrure. On our frameworks for the trade structure and the intra-industry thrade in Korea, it is expected that there is a tendency for intra-industry trade to become more important over time in Korean trade structure. Though the growth of scale of economics and per capita income in Korean manufacturing industries, intra-industry trade will increase the demand for variety and the scope of product differentiation, resulting in very high degree of trade structure adjustment.
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