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주수현,이선영 부산연구원 2016 BDI 정책포커스 Vol.- No.301
◯ 광역산업연관모형 적용을 통해 부울경의 이해관계를 조정하고 경제공동체를 구축 - 고령화, 저성장, IoT혁명 등 글로벌 메가트렌드 변화와 선진국의 대도시권 형성을 위한 글로벌 전략에 대응하기 위해 부울경 경제공동체 구축이 절실 - 부울경의 중후장대형산업은 창조경제시대와 IoT 혁명으로 위기 가능성이 커짐 - 특히 FTA에 대한 공동 대처, 내수위축에 대응한 시장 확대, 부울경 기업가치사슬 고도화를 통해 일자리를 창출하고 지역 내 인력수급과 산업변화의 연계성을 높이기 위한 협력이 절실 ◯ 부산은 산업협력모형에 의한 부울경 간 합리적 이해 조정과 광역경제 구축을 위한 협력 사업으로 ▲부산 대도시권 통합을 위한 공동사업 추진 ▲공동조례 제정 및 광역기금 조성 ▲광역권 소비자 집객을 위한 앵커시설 확대(접경지역 공동경제구역 설정) 등이 필요 [그림 본문 참조]
Urban Entertainment Center 사업과 지역경제의 파급효과 분석
주수현,허정옥,진금옥,강상주 동의대학교 경제경영전략연구소 2006 經濟經營硏究 Vol.4 No.1
This research is designed for conducing spreading effects of regional economy by analyzing Input-Output Model(i.e. production model, employment model, value model, and income model). These measures of spreading effects in regional economy were determined by precise analyses of feasibility and demands of public businesses. That would be effective and confident polices and supportive for long time in the regional ecinimy. One of the most effectibe analysis on the spreading effects of regional economy is draw up Input-Output Model(IOM). This article, based on 2000 IOM of Busan Area, is focused that how the turbulence level of final demands affected spreading effects of regional economy, such as industrial production, value added, employment, incom etc. Also there were included the analysis of economic analyses of spreading effects on the UEC in the Centum City businesses.
주수현,이동철,유영명 한국자료분석학회 2006 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.8 No.1
The purpose of this article is to analyze the Regional Business Cycle in Busan Metropolitan Area, especially reviewing its Leading Composite Index. As a result of studying the following conclusion could be obtained.First, basic statistical data should be accurately examined to raise the usefulness of regional composite. For Busan, it would be desirable to utilize coincident composite index and indices focusing on the state of employed persons by industry non-farm households, Industrial ProductionㆍShipment, Electric power consumption, Trade, Export, Bills clearing. Second, it is necessary to develope leading composite index as well as coincident composite index reflecting regional economy. Third, a variety of techniques should be developed to analyze many different indices such as diffusion index, econometric model, business survey and consumer sentiment indices. 경기선행종합지수는 비교적 가까운 장래(6∼7개월 후)의 경기동향을 예측하는 지표로서, 부산지역의 경우에 중간재출하지수, 건축허가면적, 예금은행대출금 월증감액(실질), 종합주가지수 및 부산지역방송 광고비 등 5개 지표를 선정하는 것이 지역의 경기동향을 잘 예측하는 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 부산지역 동행종합지수와의 상호비교를 통해서 부산지역의 현재 경기국면에 있어서의 진폭과 속도에 관한 정보를 훨씬 정확하게 파악함은 물론 경기예측에도 유용하게 활용할 수 있게 되었다는 점에서 큰 의의가 있다.주요용어 : 지역경기, 경기선행지수, 기준순환일, X-12-ARIMA.
崔成哲,周修鉉 釜山 外國語 大學校 1995 外大論叢 Vol.13 No.1
The Purpose of this study is to empirically analyze time series model for the dynamic effect of prices on macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, Vector Error Correction Model composed of seven variables is estimated as a prices forecast model. Maximum likelihood estimation is applicated to estimate VECM following Johansen(1988). The forecast experiments is based on the model for sample periods that begin in the first quarter 1970 and end fourth quarter 1992. In general, the analysis attempts to address the general conclusion that has emerged from the study of such VAR that most of dynamic interactions among the key variables can best be explained as. The VAR system is an atheoretic model that captures the statistical relations among various macroeconomic time series. We have tried stationarity of variables with unit root test and cointegration test. Both of the likelihood ratio-the trace test and the maximum eigenvalue test-fail to reject the hypothesis that three or fewer cointegrating at the 5 percent level exist. Thus, three cointegrating vectors were found in the system that include seven variables, and hence this system was estimated as a VECM(vector error correctiion model) As a result of VECM, the dynamic effect of macroeconomic variables of demand side on prices is larger than that of macroeconomic variables of supply side. Though we could not find that wage, interest rate, export and import affect prices from Granger-causality test, we have found prices does Granger-caused by consumption, investment. We could find the following facts by means of variance decomposition at the twenty-four quarter horizon. Results show that innovations in consumption, investment account for more than the other variables share of the variance of prices under orderings presented. The results above means that demand factors is not only the major determinant of prices but also the important variable which influences the price directly. Furthermore it can be implied that prices is determined not by supply factors but by demand factors.
최성철,주수현 釜山 外國語 大學校 1997 外大論叢 Vol.16 No.1
The interest rate is the adjustment mechanism in loan markets. An equilibrium has seldom acquired in loan markets because of characteristics of loan markets such as default risk, borrower classification, customer relationships, and imperfect imformation. Credit rationing can be defined as a situation in which there exists an excess demand for loans because quoted loan interest rates are below the Walrasian market clearing level. Generally, firms which request loans for the investment act as promary borrowers in loan markets. The availability of credit affects the amount of investment. So, credit rationing affects macroeconomic varibles through the investment of firms. The purpose of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of credit rationing. For this prupose, we have examined the effects of credit rationing on real GNP, price level, interest rate of private bonds, and investment. We have tried stationarity of variables with unit root test and cointegration test. Then, we have applied vector error correction medel to variables which have stationary relation.