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RISS 인기검색어
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- 저자 : ( Suliman Safi ) (검색결과 2 건)
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( Suliman Safi ),( Won-ho Nam ) 한국농공학회 2018 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2018 No.-
Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land cover and use, increases the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. This alters energy balances and tends to warm the atmosphere which will result in climate change. Being one of the very sensitive parameters, climate change can cause significant impacts on water resources by resulting changes in the hydrological cycle, and the spatial and temporal water resource availability can be significantly affected, which clearly amplifies its impact on sectors like agriculture, industry and urban development. The current study was conducted to indicate the look ahead flood probability and its impact on proposed dams, human life and infrastructure. Kunar basin is fed by melting glaciers and snow of the Hindu Kush mountains, which, together with snow and glacier melt, produce intense floods. The study analyses flood probability in Kunar river basin on proposed dams for a contemporary period (1984-2014) and three future periods (2015-2044, 2045-2074 and 2075-2099) using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on five bias-corrected downscaled climate models (ACCESS 1.3, INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A, BCC-CSM 1.1 and HadGEM2-ES). After comparison the correlation coefficient between observed data and data of five different models, ACCESS 1.3 model had better relation then others so, this model is used. Contemporary period and future floods are modelled with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used in the study. This hydrologic model provides a link between climate changes and water yields through simulation of hydrologic processes within watersheds. Different components of water resource are simulated and crop yield, water quality are considered ate the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU). The simulation of river basin by SWAT hydrological model suggest that the average flow of flood for retrospective period is 4195.52 m3/sec, but according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 the average flow of flood for look ahead period is 7315.86 m3/sec and 6894.80 m3/sec. So, the results suggest an increasing trend due to an increasing precipitation and higher temperatures accelerates snow and glacier-melt. Kunar basin is the highest flow contributor in Kabul river basin, the basin has great untapped hydropower potential which could be harnessed for cheap hydro electricity generation, that is why government of Afghanistan proposed for several hydropower dams on this basin. This study can assist water managers and policy makers to indicate the location of critical areas in their preparation to accurate plan, manage the flood impact on dams and mitigate the effect of flood related damages in low land area of Kunar basin.
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( Suliman Safi ),( Won-ho Nam ) 한국농공학회 2018 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2018 No.-
Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land cover and use, increases the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. This alters energy balances and tends to warm the atmosphere which will result in climate change. Being one of the very sensitive parameters, climate change can cause significant impacts on water resources by resulting changes in the hydrological cycle, and the spatial and temporal water resource availability can be significantly affected, which clearly amplifies its impact on sectors like agriculture, industry and urban development. The current study was conducted to indicate the look ahead flood probability and its impact on proposed dams, human life and infrastructure. Kunar basin is fed by melting glaciers and snow of the Hindu Kush mountains, which, together with snow and glacier melt, produce intense floods. The study analyses flood probability in Kunar river basin on proposed dams for a contemporary period (1984-2014) and three future periods (2015-2044, 2045-2074 and 2075-2099) using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on five bias-corrected downscaled climate models (ACCESS 1.3, INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A, BCC-CSM 1.1 and HadGEM2-ES). After comparison the correlation coefficient between observed data and data of five different models, ACCESS 1.3 model had better relation then others so, this model is used. Contemporary period and future floods are modelled with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used in the study. This hydrologic model provides a link between climate changes and water yields through simulation of hydrologic processes within watersheds. Different components of water resource are simulated and crop yield, water quality are considered ate the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU). The simulation of river basin by SWAT hydrological model suggest that the average flow of flood for retrospective period is 4195.52 m3/sec, but according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 the average flow of flood for look ahead period is 7315.86 m3/sec and 6894.80 m3/sec. So, the results suggest an increasing trend due to an increasing precipitation and higher temperatures accelerates snow and glacier-melt. Kunar basin is the highest flow contributor in Kabul river basin, the basin has great untapped hydropower potential which could be harnessed for cheap hydro electricity generation, that is why government of Afghanistan proposed for several hydropower dams on this basin. This study can assist water managers and policy makers to indicate the location of critical areas in their preparation to accurate plan, manage the flood impact on dams and mitigate the effect of flood related damages in low land area of Kunar basin.
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