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The Impact of the Exchange Rate Regime on Exports: Evidence from the European Monetary System
( Stilianos Fountas ),( Kyriacos Aristotelous ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2005 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.20 No.3
We employ the econometric techniques of multivariate cointegration and error-correction models to investigate the impact of the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) on the volume of intra-European Union (EU) exports for eight EU countries. We find that for Ireland the EMS boosted the volume of intra-EU exports, whereas for Belgium, Denmark, and Germany, the EMS led to a decline in intra-EU exports. In the rest of the countries, there has not been a significant effect. Another important result is that, more often than not, the short-run impact of exchange rate volatility on the volume of intra-EU exports is insignificant.
Stilianos Fountas,Menelaos Karanasos 한국국제경제학회 2008 International Economic Journal Vol.22 No.4
We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in ve European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy uncertainty, we obtain two important results. First, more uncertainty about output leads to a higher rate of growth in three of the ve countries. Second, output growth reduces its uncertainty in all countries except one. Our results are robust to alternative speci cations and provide strong support to the recent emphasis by macroeconomists on the joint examination of economic growth and the variability of the business cycle.
Aristotelous, Kyriacos,Fountas, Stilianos 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 2000 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.15 No.3
In this paper, we investigated the impact of the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) on the exports of the four largest EU countries (France, Germany, Italy and UK) to each other. Our findings suggest that the EMS boosted bilateral trade in the cases of Germany's exports to Italy and Italy's exports to the UK and influenced negatively the volume of exports between France and Germany. The EMS had no significant impact on export volumes in the rest of bilateral trade relationships examined. Additionally, we found that exchange rate volatility more often than not had an insignificant effect on the volume of intra-EU exports.
Current Account Deficit Sustainability: a Panel Approach
( Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah ),( Evan Lau ),( Stilianos Fountas ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2005 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.20 No.3
In this paper we attempt to examine the issue of sustainability of current account imbalances in eight East Asia countries using the latest developments in nonstationary panel data analysis. The methods of nonstationary time series panels provide a much more promising explanation than would an analysis based on pure time series or cross section data. The empirical results clearly indicate that the current account imbalances were not on the long-run steady state in the pre-crisis era (1970-1997). This leads to the conclusion that the current accounts of Asia-8 during this period were unstable and did not move towards external account equilibrium. However, strong comovements between exports and imports are found in the extended sample period that includes the post-crisis period (1970-2000). This result implies that large currency depreciations and the economic recovery have brought the Asia-8 economies back on a sustainable path. Thus, current account imbalances may be used as an indicator (or warning signal) in predicting future crises.