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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : ( Fausto Guzzetti ) (검색결과 1 건)
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Assessing landslide hazard and risk: what we do and what we should do
( Fausto Guzzetti ) 대한지질공학회 2019 대한지질공학회 학술발표회논문집 Vol.2019 No.2
Landslides are present in all continents and play an important role in the evolution of landscapes. In many areas they represent a serious threat to people, properties, society and the environment. It is therefore not surprising that landslide hazard and risk assessment, a topic of scientific, technological and practical relevance, is becoming increasingly popular among scientists, practitioners, decision makers and concerned citizens. Despite numerous attempts and unquestionable progresses, the general assumptions and the most popular methodologies used to assess landslide hazard and for risk evaluation have not changed significantly in the last decades. Today, some of these assumptions show theoretical weakness, and the adopted methodologies reveal practical and operational limitations. In the talk, I deal with populations of landslides i.e., numerous landslides triggered in areas from tens to millions of square kilometers by a trigger (e.g., a rainstorm, earthquake, snowmelt event), or by multiple triggers in a period (from weeks to seasons) or in a long period (years to millennia) of time. Following an introduction on what we need to predict to assess landslide hazard and risk in a useful way, I will introduce the strategies and main methods used to detect and map landslides, and to predict populations of landslides in space (“where” landslide occur) and time (“when”, or how frequently they will occur), and the numerosity (magnitude) and size characteristics (length, width, area, volume) of the landslides. For landslide detection and mapping, I will consider traditional methods based on the visual interpretation of aerial photographs, and modern approaches that exploit the visual, semi-automatic or automatic analysis of a variety of remote sensing images. For landslide spatial prediction, I will discuss the results of a global review of classification-based methods for landslide susceptibility assessment, outlining some of the limitations of the current approaches. For the temporal prediction, leveraging on a global analysis of geographical landslide forecasting and early warning systems, I will discuss short term (from hours to days) forecast capabilities and the limitations. Next, I will discuss long term (from years to centuries) landslide projections considering the impact of the current and the expected climate variations on landslide projections. For landslide numerosity and size characteristics, I will present existing statistics of landslide area and volume obtained from large populations of event-triggered landslides. This will be followed by an analysis of the landslide consequences, with an emphasis on the consequences to the population of Italy, including the presentation of a spatial-temporal model of societal landslide risk for Italy. I will end the presentation by offering recommendations on what I think we need to do to make significant progresses in our collective capacity to predict the hazard posed by populations of landslides, and to anticipate and mitigate their risk.
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