COVID-19에 영향을 미치는 지역 특성 분석 및 발생위험지역 추정

이조은 공주대학교 일반대학원 2023 국내석사

전 세계는 계속된 변이 바이러스의 재유행으로 인하여 아직까지 COVID-19의 확산세를 막지 못하고 있다. 좋은 도시의 이상향과 같이 여겨지던 압축도시 형태의 도시구조, 이를 관리해오던 도시관리제도 등 현재의 도시환경 여건은 오늘날 COVID-19 바이러스에 대응하기에는 불리한 구조이며, 우리는 사회적 거리두기와 같은 방역체제를 통해 대응책을 펼치고 있지만, 장기적인 팬데믹 상황에서 이를 유지하는 것은 효율성이 떨어질뿐더러 사회경제적으로 더 큰 피해를 입히고 있다. 또한 지역별로 인구, 교통 여건 등 다양한 차이가 존재함에도 불구하고 획일적인 대응책은 감염병 위기에 효과적으로 대응하는 데 있어 역부족한 실정이다. 따라서 사람 간의 접촉을 강제로 규제하기에 앞서 도시계획을 통해 물리적인 거리를 자연스럽게 유지할 수 있도록 공간적 차원에서 접근할 필요가 있다. 향후 언제든지 다시 재발할 수 있는 감염병 바이러스로 인한 피해를 최소화하기 위하여 초기 확산 통제 및 감염병 취약지역을 효과적으로 관리하기 위한 대책 마련이 중요하다. 따라서 감염병에 안전한 도시를 구축하기 위하여 도시계획 및 정책적 차원에서의 대응책이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 거시적·미시적 공간 단위에서의 감염병 발생 및 확산에 영향을 미치는 지역 특성들을 분석하고, 미시적 수준에서의 공간환경을 고려하여 감염병 발생 위험지역을 추정하였다. 또한 지역 특성에 맞는 구체적인 공간계획을 위하여 k-means 클러스터링을 통해 추정된 감염병 발생위험지역을 유형화하고 이에 따른 세부 전략을 제시하였다. 전국 246개의 시군구를 대상으로 거시적 범위에서의 지역 특성을 살펴 본 결과, 인구밀도, 건물 밀도, 보행자도로밀도가 높을수록 COVID-19 감염률이 높아지는 것으로 나타났으며, 반대로 직주균형도는 높을수록 COVID-19 감염률이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 지역 내부통행량뿐만 아니라 COVID-19 감염률이 높은 지역과의 외부 통행량도 감염병 확산에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요인임을 알 수 있다. 서울시 500m 격자 단위로 세분화하여 미시적 범위에서 지역 특성이 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과, 생활인구와 종사자 규모, 토지이용혼합도가 높을수록 COVID-19 감염률이 더 높아지는 것으로 나타났으며, 월평균소득은 낮을수록 감염병 발생이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 감염병 관련 시설 요인의 경우 다중이용시설이 많을수록 감염 위험이 높아지는 것으로 나타났으나 반대로 의료시설은 많을수록 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 지역 간 이동 수단인 버스정류장과 지하철 출구와 같은 대중교통 시설이 감염 위험을 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 지역 특성과 감염병 발생 사이의 상관관계가 있음을 파악함으로써 미시적인 근린환경 특성을 기반으로 감염 위험이 높은 지역을 추정하는 모델을 구축하였다. 그 결과 XGBoost가 가장 성능이 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 추정에 중요한 영향을 미친 변수의 중요도를 분석하였을 때, 지하철 출구 수, 종사자 수, 연면적 비율, 공업지역 비율, 버스정류장 수 등이 중요한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 추정된 발생위험지역을 k-means 클러스터링을 통해 유형화하였으며, 유형별로 관련 요인들의 군집 성향을 파악하여 중심상권 지역, 공업밀집 지역, 주요 감염병 위험군 밀집 지역, 주거밀집 지역, 근린상권 지역 총 5개의 지역으로 분류하고 이에 맞춰 감염병에 대응할 수 있는 세부 전략을 제시하였다. 본 연구는 COVID-19의 급속한 확산으로 도시적 차원에서의 문제 해결이 요구되는 현시점에서 감염병 대응형 도시를 위한 기초자료를 구축하고 그 영향력을 실증적으로 분석하였으며, 나아가 감염병 발생위험지역을 추정을 통해 지역에 맞는 세밀화된 대응책을 제시하였다는 측면에서 기존 연구와 차별성을 가지며, 향후 감염병 대응형 도시를 조성하는데 본 연구의 결과물이 활용되기를 기대한다. The world has not yet been able to stop the spread of COVID-19 due to various resurgences of the mutating virus. Urban environments such as the urban structures in the form of compressed cities, which were considered ideal forms of a good city, and the urban management systems they require for management present unfavorable structures for responding to COVID-19, and while countermeasures are in place, maintaining them in the context of a long-term pandemic is not only less effective but also more damaging socioeconomically. In addition, despite various differences in population and transportation conditions by region, uniform countermeasures are insufficient to respond effectively to infectious disease crises. Therefore, prior to forcibly regulating interpersonal contact, it is necessary to consider a spatial approach in which physical distance can be maintained naturally through urban planning. In addition, to minimize the damage caused by infectious diseases that can recur at any time, it is important to control the initial spread and effectively manage areas that are vulnerable to such diseases. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare alternatives at the levels of urban planning and policy to develop cities that are safe from infectious diseases. Therefore, this study analyzed the regional characteristics that affected the outbreak and spread of infectious diseases in macroscopic and microscopic units and estimated the risk areas for infectious diseases in consideration of the spatial environment at the microscopic level. In addition, for specific spatial planning that is suitable for regional characteristics, the infectious disease outbreak risk areas estimated through k-means clustering were classified and detailed strategies were presented accordingly. The results of examining the macroscopic regional characteristics of 246 cities and counties nationwide show that the higher the population density, building density, and pedestrian road density and the higher the job-housing balance, the lower the COVID-19 infection rate. In addition, both the internal traffic volume in the region and the external traffic volume in areas with severe COVID-19 infection rates are evidently important factors that affect the spread of infectious diseases. Analyzing the influence of regional characteristics in the microscopic range by subdividing Seoul into 500 m grid units shows that lower average monthly incomes and greater living population, proportion of workers, and land use mix all increase the incidence rates of infectious diseases. In the case of infectious disease-related facility factors, the increased prevalence of multi-use facilities increases the risk of infection; conversely, a larger number of medical facilities lowers the risk. The results show that public transportation facilities such as bus stops and subway exits, which are means of transport between regions, increase the risk of infection. By identifying the correlations between regional characteristics and outbreaks of infectious diseases, a model was established to estimate regions with a high risk of infection based on microscopic neighborhood environment characteristics. The results show that XGBoost had the best performance, and when the importance of variables that had significantly impacted the estimation was analyzed, the numbers of subway exits, workers, and bus stops and the ratios of total floor area and industrial areas had significant effects. In addition, the estimated risk areas were classified through k-means clustering and the clustering tendency of related factors was identified for each type. These were classified into four regions and presented with detailed strategies for responding to infectious diseases. This study establishes basic data for an infectious disease response city and empirically analyzes its influence at the point in time when the rapid spread of COVID-19 requires solving problems at the urban level. This is differentiated from previous studies in that it presents detailed countermeasures tailored to the region and it is expected that this study’s results will be useful for creating cities that can respond to infectious diseases in the future.

Regional Economic Inequality of China: The Trend and Interpretations From the Institutional Perspective

Sun, Xiaozhong Cornell University ProQuest Dissertations & Theses 2023 해외박사(DDOD)

소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 9시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

This dissertation investigates the underlying mechanisms of uneven regional development in China, with a particular focus on institutional factors, given the country's significant social, economic, and political transitions since the late 1970s. The study aims to empirically analyze the role of state and institutional factors in shaping the spatial distribution of economic activities, in addition to conventional neoclassical factors.The first study calculates regional inequality using the Generalized Entropy indices, with GDP per capita data from sub-provincial levels. The study utilizes innovative remote sensing data, such as nighttime light intensity, alongside census data to measure regional inequality, providing a comprehensive perspective on its evolution. A panel fixed effect model is employed for regression analysis, examining the relationship between various factors and provincial-level inequality over time, with a specific focus on factors representing the state's role.Empirical evidence indicates that within-group inequalities contributed more significantly to overall regional inequality in China from the early 1990s to the late 2010s than between-group inequalities. Although regional inequality peaked in 2003, according to census data, spatial datasets show a consistent decrease from 1992 to 2019 without any clear turning point. The multimechanism regression analysis reveals that provinces with a higher share of private enterprises, increased expenditure decentralization, and greater openness to global trade tend to exhibit higher intra-provincial inequality. This finding underscores the substantial impact of both market and state forces on regional inequality within the Chinese context.The second study employs a quasi-experimental design to investigate the effect of changes in administrative structure on county-level regional economic growth. The study selects counties that became county-level cities during the first round of policy implementation as the treatment group and employs the latest difference-in-difference methods, considering heterogeneous treatment effects across different groups and timings, to estimate the actual treatment effect of administrative structure adjustments.The results demonstrate that upgraded county-level cities did not outperform their county counterparts in urban and economic growth, as measured by average nighttime light intensity. Following the upgrade, the growth rate of county-level cities declined over time. These findings remain significant and consistent after multiple robustness checks. The negative impact of administrative restructuring is closely linked to the detrimental effects of expanding governance scope and diminishing fiscal, economic, and political resources for county-level cities due to the subtle power dynamic shifts accompanying administrative structure adjustments.The third study aims to gain a deeper understanding of the cause-effect relationship of uneven regional development in China by examining the influence of land-based capital accumulation processes. The research offers robust empirical evidence supporting the positive association between urban land leasing-represented by the share of land leasing revenue at the prefecture-level city-and economic growth, as measured by GDP per capita in China between 2007 and 2018. This correlation, which varies spatially and temporally, may contribute to the uneven regional development observed in contemporary China.

Urban development by land readjustment in Seoul, Korea, with particular reference to the Gaepo and Garak projects

길병학 Asian Institute of Technology 1987 국내석사

Rebuilding the Motor City: Exploring Demolition, Neighborhood Stabilization, and Land Valuation

Alvayay Torrejon, Camila Gabriela Michigan State University ProQuest Dissertations & 2023 해외박사(DDOD)

소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 9시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

The City of Detroit, once the symbol of industrial prosperity, is an example of a declining city. Urbanized areas that have experienced population loss, reduced employment opportunities, and continued economic decline. For decades, these cities have been in a downward spiral characterized by deteriorating infrastructure and urban residential decay. "Is Detroit Dead?" asked Peter Eisinger in his 2014 essay. In this dissertation, I provide a partial answer to that question and show that Detroit is not dead, but rather in transition. By examining the city's urban policies and their impact on the housing market, I illuminate Detroit's potential for urban renewal and offer important insights into the successes and failures of these efforts, as well as possible alternatives to property taxation. The city's efforts serve as a case study for other shrinking cities around the world.In the first essay, titled “Impact of Demolitions on Neighboring Property Values in Detroit”, I evaluate the impact of demolitions on neighboring property values using a Repeat Sales (RS) regression approach. The Detroit Demolition Program began in 2014 and has since demolished more than 20,800 properties at a cost of over $250 million. In addition, the city demolished 11,400 buildings containing hazardous materials such as asbestos from 2009-2015. I use information on property sales prices from 2009 to 2019, and information from the 2009 Detroit Residential Survey to differentiate by the level of dilapidation prior to the start of the program. I find that, on average across the city, the removal of disrepair through the demolition program does not appear to have affected residential transaction prices. However, when I differentiate the effect by the ex-ante characteristics of the properties, I find that the demolitions have a positive effect on property prices in areas where there was a low level of decay prior to the demolitions.In the second essay, titled “Revitalization in Shrinking Cities: Impact of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program in Detroit”, I evaluate the effectiveness of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) in terms of housing valuation, foreclosure decline, and rehabilitation projects. The Great Recession led to the largest housing market collapse in US history. During this time, many homeowners suffered the consequences of the crisis, accumulating unpaid property tax bills and foreclosures. This problem was concentrated primarily in cities that were experiencing long-term economic decline, such as Detroit. In an effort to address the housing crisis, Congress provided funding for emergency assistance to rehabilitate abandoned and foreclosed homes under the NSP, a $7 billion program. In Detroit's case, nine neighborhoods were identified as those most affected by the housing crisis. Overall, the results indicate that the NSP had a stabilizing effect on the housing market in treated neighborhoods, preventing further declines, but did not stimulate pronounced revitalization.In the third essay, titled “Valuing Land in Detroit Using the Option Value Approach”, I present empirical evidence for the option value of residential properties in Detroit and use this to estimate their land values. This is particularly relevant as Detroit considers adopting a split-rate property tax (City of Detroit, 2023), a policy where land is taxed more than improvements, known for its efficiency and equity benefits. Using the option value technique, a novel approach in land valuation, I analyze data from the Zillow ZTRAX database and employ land use intensity variables to construct hedonic models incorporating option value. This method, which considers the relative volume of the structure of the property, reveals that option value positively correlates with property depreciation, increasing sales prices significantly. These findings not only offer a new perspective in measuring option value but also demonstrate the importance of including it in land value assessments, particularly for higher-priced properties, to avoid underestimation.

The Geography of Hispanic Homeownership

Sanchez-Moyano, Rocio University of California, Berkeley ProQuest Disser 2020 해외박사(DDOD)

소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 9시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

A Space for living: Region and nature in the San Francisco Bay Area, 1939-1969

Allen, Peter Albert University of California, Berkeley 2009 해외박사(DDOD)

소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 9시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

In the decades around World War II, the San Francisco Bay Area in Northern California rapidly evolved into a more complex urban region. A diverse group of architects, landscape architects, and urban planners recognized the social and environmental issues inherent in this regional city. Their vision to combine modernist design with regional inspirations from nature, enacted at the regional scale, gave birth to an "arc of regional modernism" in mid-century American urbanism and architecture. This vision of regional modernism arose in the 1930s when a group of architects and landscape architects combined ideas from the Modern Movement with inspirations from Bay Area natural landscapes. Often viewed as a unique contrast to the International Style, their philosophy of environmental design was instead an integral part of a modernist architecture more varied than typically understood. The architecture and urban planning group Telesis presented a vision of urban regional growth---inspired by both Lewis Mumford and CIAM---that included modernist urban renewal and regional urban growth control. Telesis laid the foundations for the Bay Area's legacy in both urban renewal and the natural open space preservation of the greenbelt. The Safeway Corporation's evolving designs for the postwar supermarket demonstrate how one grocery store chain used modern architecture to promote an image of the modern corporation and then used regionalist architectural motifs to obscure the realities of large-scale food distribution. Better understood as regional modernists, women such as Catherine Bauer Wurster, Dorothy Erskine, Geraldine Knight Scott, and Elizabeth Mock played a substantial role in supporting and tempering the spread of modernism while demonstrating the importance of women in some of environmentalism most significant urban accomplishments. A case study of Bauer presents her history in environmental conservation and regional planning. Finally, the events at People's Park in Berkeley in 1969 demonstrate the decline of the arc of regional modernism. Two visions of incorporating nature into the urban fabric collided when the top-down planning vision of regional modernism clashed with the efforts of young designers to create a more collaborative, community-based movement in architecture and planning.

After the crises of modernity: Urban planning and patterns in post-industrial Cleveland, Ohio, and post-socialist Sofia, Bulgaria

Hirt, Sonia Anguelova University of Michigan 2003 해외박사(DDOD)

소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 9시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

Urban planning has historically been dominated by the philosophy of modernism. The central aim of modernism in planning, despite the many variations, was to bring rational order to the city. This order was typically pursued in an autocratic fashion through means such as the sponsorship of large-scale urban renewal, the imposition of land use segregation, the endorsement of urban dispersal, and the patronage of new, rationally conceived forms, deemed superior to the messy historic city. Despite the many benefits of modernization, the embrace of modernism as chief planning ideology has often had harmful effects upon urban form. The dissertation contends that two variations of modernism guided post-war planning in the United States and Eastern Europe, leaving many of their historic cities with different but equally deep scars to heal and ultimately leading them to crises, referred here as crises of modernist urbanism. The dissertation asks whether urban planning has substantively evolved in reaction to these urbanist crises. Have alternative approaches to planning cities emerged? May one talk of a postmodern turn in planning?. To answer these questions, the dissertation analyzes past and present planning in two regions, one in North America, Cleveland, Ohio, and one in Eastern Europe, Sofia, Bulgaria. It uses three themes or sets of planning ideas and practices, related to: (1) the planning process, (2) land consumption and (3) land use arrangement, as the primary criteria to assess the ostensible presence of a planning paradigm shift. The rise of participatory planning processes, and the rise of planning approaches encouraging compact forms and mixed uses are considered evidence of a postmodern turn. The dissertation concludes that despite the vastly different contexts of the two regions, urban planning went through broadly similar stages. In each, planning had its period of high modernism and, in each, the current post-industrial/post-socialist period coincides with the rise of postmodern planning themes. However, even if a postmodern transition in planning is underway, in terms of the three central themes, this transition is only partial, with the forces of tradition frequently overpowering these of change, and with planning ideas and practices often remaining in conflict.

Examining the effectiveness of voluntary coordination among local governments: Evidence from a regional land use planning process

Allred, Dustin University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2013 해외박사(DDOD)

소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 9시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

Regional planning in a framework of voluntary governance has been portrayed as a way to address the fragmented development priorities of local jurisdictions. The Sacramento region's Blueprint has been identified as an exemplar of this 'New Regionalism' but we know relatively little about how comprehensive regional land use plans like Blueprint influence the development priorities of local jurisdictions. I use Blueprint to investigate whether this New Regionalism has lived up to its stated promise of achieving more sustainable patterns of regional development through collaborative and cooperative approaches to regional planning. I evaluate the effectiveness of the Blueprint implementation effort using a mix of methods -- a spatial analysis of development activity as measured by residential building permits, and a comparative case study of several jurisdictions to find out in richer, more nuanced detail, what has happened at the local level as jurisdictions tried to align their development priorities with the region's growth principles. Case study jurisdictions examined include Sacramento, Davis, Elk Grove and Sacramento County. Data was generated from interviews with planners, city officials, and stakeholders, along with an analysis of planning documentation and media accounts. The analysis shows that implementation has been selective and uneven, with the plan's influence mediated by fiscal and legal constraints or opportunities, NIMBYism, local culture, existing urban form characteristics, and the 'growth first' mentality of some local leaders, the business community and developers. This suggests that voluntary governance arrangements may not be the optimal setting for achieving regional goals, particularly with regard to issues of affordable housing and the equity implications of regional growth. Nonetheless, Blueprint has inserted a regional awareness into the agendas of local planners, politicians, the development community, and the public. The results offer planners a window onto the different motivations and logics that shape local land use policy and provide a new understanding of the importance of regional processes like Blueprint in creating a space where alternative urban development paradigms can be argued and debated. Going forward, planners should consider alternatives to the broad based approach of voluntary governance, tailoring policy approaches to the political context of specific jurisdictions -- allowing for flexibility through incentives in some places, while a more stringent regulatory approach is called for in others.

Regional Pathways to Technological Upgrading: The Impact of Agglomeration Economies and its Regional Covariates on Upgrading in Post-reforms India's Manufacturing Sector

Mallavarapu, Bravishwar University of California, Los Angeles 2013 해외박사(DDOD)

소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 9시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

Globalization presents challenges to emerging economies, as exports from such countries typically consist of standardized outputs. In response, the new orthodoxy of market liberalization shows mixed technological upgrading results because it fails to account for cross-national, let alone, sub-national variations in institutional capacities. Literature highlights the central role of regional (subnational) economies in driving the global economy through productivity and innovation boosts from agglomerative forces. In emerging countries, the effectiveness of regional agglomerations is hampered by the negative impacts of over-urbanization. This problem is worsened in urban-primate settlement patterns involving very large primary cities and no comparable secondary urban areas. Thus, national reforms may have unequal subnational upgrading impacts because of the inter-regional heterogeneity in agglomerative, urbanization and institutional capacities. In this dissertation consisting of three papers, I explore the above issues through the case of India's manufacturing sector in the post-1991 'delicensing' reforms era (1990 to 2005). In the first paper, I construct and employ a unique indicator of technological sophistication to track regional trends in technological upgrading. I find that technological levels for delicensed industries have converged at the state-level but to lower levels of sophistication. In the second paper, I find evidence that falling technological levels coincide with the dispersion of manufacturing activities from urban centers. Urbanization agglomeration economies (variety) are positively correlated with upgrading in conjunction with capital-intensity and imported inputs into production. However, localization agglomeration economies (own industry concentration) are found to have negative impacts on upgrading across the board, pointing to issues pertaining to limited supply of regional infrastructure. In the third paper, I examine the impact of urbanization on agglomeration economies. I find that urban size thresholds—larger to largest urban areas—play a positive mediating role on the effectiveness of agglomeration economies on upgrading. Further, very large secondary urban areas influence upgrading by attracting skilled migration. In investigating regional political contexts, I find that the reasons why political majorities and lengthy tenures choose growth in secondary urban areas do not associate with upgrading. This may indicate competing policy priorities to the neglect of the manufacturing sector.

Climate change adaptation: A green infrastructure planning framework for resilient urban regions

Abunnasr, Yaser University of Massachusetts Amherst 2013 해외박사(DDOD)

소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 9시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

The research explores multiple facets of a green infrastructure planning framework for climate change adaptation in urban regions. The research is organized in three distinct, but related parts. The first develops an adaptation implementation model based on triggering conditions rather than time. The approach responds to policy makers' reluctance to engage in adaptation planning due to uncertain future conditions. The model is based on planning and adaptation literature and applied to two case studies. Uncertainty during implementation may be reduced by incremental and flexible policy implementation, disbursing investments as needs arise, monitoring conditions, and organizing adaptation measures along no-regrets to transformational measures. The second part develops the green infrastructure transect as an organizational framework for mainstreaming adaptation planning policies. The framework integrates multi-scalar and context aspects of green infrastructure for vertical and horizontal integration of policy. The framework integrates literature from urban and landscape planning and tested on Boston. Prioritization of adaptation measures depends on location. Results suggest that green infrastructure adaptation policies should respond to configuration of zones. Cross jurisdiction coordination at regional and parcel scales supports mainstreaming. A secondary conclusion suggests that green infrastructure is space intensive and becomes the basis of the empirical study in part three. A spatial assessment method is introduced to formulate opportunities for green infrastructure network implementation within land-uses and across an urban-rural gradient. Spatial data in GIS for Boston is utilized to develop a percent pervious metric allowing the characterization of the study area into six zones of varying perviousness. Opportunities across land uses were assessed then maximum space opportunities were defined based on conservation, intensification, transformation and expansion. The opportunities for transformation of impervious surfaces to vegetal surfaces are highest in the urban center and its surrounding. Intensification of vegetation on pervious surfaces along all land uses is high across the gradient. Conservation of existing forested land is significant for future climate proofing. The concluding section argues for a green infrastructure planning framework for adaptation based on integration into existing infrastructural bodies, regional vision, incremental implementation, ecosystem benefits accounting, and conditions based planning rather than time based.