연구개발투자의 경제적 효과 평가 및 예측모형 개발 = Development of Korean R&D-based Macroeconomic Model and CGE Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study is significant in that it not only established the framework for analyzing the short-to-medium term and long-term economic effects of government’s R&D investment using macroeconometric models, but also allowed for short-term forecasting of the effects of R&D investment for the purpose of forward-looking information. The macroeconomic equilibrium model focused on forecasting which provides for the 2013 outlook for R&D investment and analyzed the short-to-medium term macroeconomic effects of the government’s science and technology policy and its effects on R&D investment by industry. The CGE model was designed and analyzed in a way that allows for long-term simulation of the effects that the government’s science and technology policy on the macroeconomy. This study sought to utilize the strengths of macroeconometric models and CGE models in order to validate various implications and effect evaluation of Korea’s science and technology policy.
This study is differentiated against other studies and is meaningful given that the macroeconometric model reflects the strengths of a number of macroeconomic models representing Korea as much as possible while incorporating existing theoretical and empirical discussions on R&D investment, which has played a pivotal role in Korea’s transition into a knowledge=based economy. Furthermore, it made significant contributions to expanding the model into R&D investment by industry so that effects of R&D investment on specific industries could be analyzed.
The CGE model, based on the studies on characteristics of recent R&D investment functions, is an advanced model in terms of estimation of knowledge-based production functions and computable general equilibrium models. This model sought to minimize the error of overestimation observed in prior studies by adding investment related to R&D stock, intangible asset in social accounting matrices. The suggested model is valuable as it established the data framework that reflects R&D as a new capital account, and is a new and specialized CGE model for R&D that addressed weaknesses identified in existing CGE models for R&D. Furthermore, this model improved its reliability based on actual micro data, and production functions are estimated by directly using business-level micro data in order to overcome the limitations of existing parameters.
The model has significance since it fully reflected characteristics of macroeconomic effects of R&D investment unlike existing macroeconometric models and CGE models, but still has limitations in that it did not model science and technology policy tools such as the Technological Innovation Incentive Scheme. Moreover, studies on science and technology innovation has to address the need to understand the effects of the government policy from the perspective of innovation systems. While previous studies conducted empirical analysis of innovation systems focusing on the effects that the level of competition in the market, the flexibility of the labor market, and the efficiency of the financial market have on innovation and R&D investment, such analysis could not be integrated into the macroeconometric model. The model has another limitation of not considering negative macroeconomic effects of R&D investment such as redundancy effects. To reflect redundancy effects, a model will have to be constructed at a more micro level.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• [표지]
• [발간사]
• [요약]
• [목차]
• 표목차
• 그림목차
• [제1장 서론]
• 제1절 연구의 필요성 및 목적
• 제2절 연구내용
• [제2장 거시경제모형에 대한 기존문헌 분석]
• 제1절 개요
• 제2절 한국의 거시경제모형
• [제3장 거시경제모형 개발]
• 제1절 데이터(실증자료)
• 제2절 모형의 구조
• 제3절 모형의 추정적합도 평가
• 제4절 정책 파급효과 분석(전체 R&D투자, 산업별 R&D투자)
• 제5절 거시계량모형 예측
• [제4장 CGE모형에 대한 기존문헌 분석]
• 제1절 개요
• 제2절 지식기반 연산일반균형모형에 대한 선행연구
• [제5장 지식기반 연산일반균형(CGE)모형 개발]
• 제1절 지식기반 사회회계행렬(SAM)의 작성
• 제2절 지식기반 연산일반균형 모형 구축
• 제3절 연구개발투자의 시나리오 설정 및 분석
• [제6장 결론]
• 제1절 연구의 의의 및 한계
• 제2절 정책 시사점
• [부록]
• [참고문헌]
• [SUMMARY]
• [CONTENTS]
• [보고서 판매 안내]