The developed world of today is still in transition from an industrial to an information economy where information becomes the most important commodity. The introduction of ever more powerful information into the manufacturing process substitutes this...
The developed world of today is still in transition from an industrial to an information economy where information becomes the most important commodity. The introduction of ever more powerful information into the manufacturing process substitutes this technology, based on robotics and automation, for labor and traditional energy-intensive capital. Another involves the substitution of knowledge and intelligence for some material and energy resources, thus achieving the more efficient design of products, greater knowledge of their markets, and tighter planning and operation of their production and distribution processes. These two changes are also facilitating the shift to increased quality, diversity, and "personalization" of the products involved.
One consequence of automation is a reduction of employment in manufacturing industries. The shift to information economy is facilitating much greater informality in the spatial organization of activities, with the formation of multiple center in metropolitan areas combined with greater spatial integration of commercial, residential, and recreational activities. Much greater speeds and capacities for moving information, people, and goods are allowing better coordination of commercial activities and greater integration of production, communication, and information processing, leading to increasing integration of functions within the urban system. There is greater freedom in locational choice for individuals who seek urban, rural or recreational amenities; for some non-routine functions such as research, design, and education, the locational sequence of cause and effect is being reversed, as jobs follow people into high amenity areas. Yet the transition has its negative side. Greater income disparity, rising unemployment through the mismatch of jobs and skills, alienation in the working environment and in society generally, and other social problems in the community and metropolitan areas: all these bring inexorable demands for more institutions and procedures to engender greater security and community support. Thus, as well as changing and ameliorating old urban problems, the transition is generating new ones.
Telecommunications networks are facilitating the global organization of industry, the rise of global markets for finance, securities, and commodities, and further growth of cities at the hubs of these information networks. These high-speed networks, consisting of both telecommunications and high-speed personal transportation, are becoming the new trade routes of the twenty-first century. Resources are shifting to the information based industries, which in turn are attracted to the global cities at their nodes. And the traditional global trade centers-New York, London, Tokyo, and Paris- have so far emerged as the most significant nodes of these information exchange.
The present concerns for international cooperation spring from the contamination of our atmosphere, land, and water by industrial and urban wastes, while their impacts on climate change are likely to prove even more significant. Urban activities involving transport, the heating and cooling of buildings, and the fuelling of production processes, are major contributors to this global warning or "greenhouse effect". Yet the new technology also offer the potential for controlling the green house effect: through new forms of emission control, the substitution of more efficient transport and energy forms, the use of telecommunication to substitute for some travel, and the application of information systems to conserve materials and energy.
Life in the twenty-first century can be expected to be richer in information and knowledge, and more recreationally diverse; a wider range of lifestyles and living environments will become possible. Cities in the twenty-first century will characterized by much greater rates of change, set in motion by the increasing speed of development of new technologies.
The urban future, however, contains a number of major paradoxes; increasing information but increasing uncertainty; increasing diversity of lifestyles but differences in income and opportunity between the information-rich and the information-poor, both locally and globally; increasing efficiency and quality in production of goods and services but increasing constraints on energy and resources.
Limited forays into predicting the form and structure of early twenty-first century cities are both possible and necessary. We can identify present trends, work them through to their "logical" conclusions, and thus develop a framework within which we can anticipate problems and develop solutions for future cities. There is no one agreed approach to assessing the impact of new information technologies on spatial from; rather, they demonstrate the value of pursuing many different methods, which individually amy detect some facet of the urban future, and which complement each other in building up a synthetic picture of the twenty-first century city.