한미동맹의 장래: 향후 5년간의 전망과 과제 = The Future of the Korean-American Alliance: Prospects and Issues over the Next Five Years

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The New Asia Research Institute (NARI) conducted a research project on the prospects and challenges confronting the ROK-U.S. alliance based on a grant from the Jinro Cultural Foundation. This summary highlights the main findings of the study which was published on May 31, 2008. The inauguration of the Lee Myung-Bak administration in February 2008 ushered in a new era in Korean-American relations after a decade of center-left governments. The new government emphasized the reconsolidation of the ROK-U.S. alliance as one of the central tenets of its foreign policy and to this end, President Lee and President Bush announced the launching of a so-called “ROK-U.S. Strategic Alliance for the 21st Century” during their Washington summit in April 2008. Despite such developments, however, the alliance confronts a series of hurdles and challenges that are likely to require sustained attention from the highest levels of the two governments.

Although it is nearly impossible to forecast key strategic developments over the next five years, the prevailing security environment not only on the Korean Peninsula but more generally throughout the international system, is likely to become increasingly uncertain and potentially volatile owing to a combination of factors. Some of the more salient macro strategic trends include the longer-term effects on the international system by on-going operations in Iraq, the rise of China and correspondingly growing influences, Japan’s more robust foreign policy forays, the resurgence of Russia, the globalization of international terrorism, and North Korea’s potentially more aggressive threat postures. If the majority of these trends materialize over the ensuing five years, the ROK’s overall security situation cannot but be affected including the co-management of the ROK-U.S. alliance.

One of the key legacies of South Korea’s leftward shift over the past decade was the recalibration of South Korea on the part of the United States. To be sure, the inauguration of the Lee Myung-Bak Administration signals an important turn in Washington’s perception of South Korea as a vital ally in the Asia-Pacific region. Nevertheless, the relentless emphasis on inter-Korean détente came about at the expense of a more robust and consolidated ROK-U.S. alliance and one could argue that the new government’s core priorities should be focused on strengthening the rationale for maintaining the ROK-U.S. alliance. In this regard, it is imperative for the new government to provide a 21st century rationale for sustaining the alliance. At the same time, efforts must be made to strengthening the ROK-U.S. joint defense posture as the ROK prepares to assume wartime operational control by 2012. Last but not least, Seoul and Washington should announce a so-called “ROK-U.S. New Security Statement” at an appropriate time to lay the foundation for a more forward looking and strategically beneficial alliance.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "조선일보 (2007. 7. 3)"

2 "전 미 국방부 부차관보 리차드 롤레스 인터뷰"

3 "연합 (2008. 4. 4)"

4 "양국군 사령부 사이에는 공동정보센터, 연합군수협조센터 등 기능별 협조기구를 비롯해 통합항공우주 작전센터(IAOC), 각 작전사별 협조기구가 가동될 것이며, 미국은 해․공군 중심의 전력으로 한반도 위기시 한국군 지상군을 지원할 것"

5 조선일보, "벨 사령관은 제 13차 극동포럼(2008. 4. 3, 세종문화회관 세종홀)에서 “The Enduring ROK-US Alliance: Going Together into the 21st Century and Beyond”의 주제로 강연했다"

6 "미래한국 (2007. 1. 25)"

7 "동아일보 (2008. 4. 12)"

8 "동아일보 (2008. 2. 23)"

9 "동아일보 (2007. 2. 24)"

10 "동아일보 (2008. 4. 4)"

11 "동아일보 (2008. 2. 23)"

12 "동아일보 (2008. 2. 2)"

13 "Future of ROK-US Alliance" 미국 Rand 연구소

14 동아일보, "21세기 전략동맹은 ① 서로 공유하는 가치와 이익의 공감대를 굳건히 하는 ‘가치동맹’, ② 군사동맹을 넘어 경제·사회·문화 등 포괄적 분야로 확대하는 ‘신뢰동맹’, ③ 동아시아지역 및 범세계적 차원의 전략적 이익을 공유하는 ‘평화구축동맹’ 등을 지향하는 넓은 의미의 동맹 개념이다"

15 "2012년 연합사 해체에 관한 전략지시 3호"

16 "2006년 8월 럼스펠드 미국 국방장관은 윤광웅 국방장관 앞으로 보낸 서신에서 주한미군 주둔을 위한 비용을 한국과 미국이 ‘50대50’으로 분담해야 한다는 입장을 분명히 했다. 한미동맹이 공동방위체제로 전환되는 상황에서 한국도 더 많은 방위책임을 져야 한다는 뜻으로 볼 수 있다"

17 "1994년 평시작전권 한국군 이양에 관한 전략지시 2호"

18 "1978년 한미연합사 창설에 관한 전략지시 1호"