The 「Pyungyang Declation」 , announced in 2002 has an attribute of 'Grand Compromise' which include almost controversial issues between North Korea and Japan. But the North Korea-Japan relation is deteriorating at an alarming rate, and amity has no...
The 「Pyungyang Declation」 , announced in 2002 has an attribute of 'Grand Compromise' which include almost controversial issues between North Korea and Japan. But the North Korea-Japan relation is deteriorating at an alarming rate, and amity has not been accomplished yet. Which situations have decided approach and estrangement between North Korea and Japan relation? And What are the decisive variables? A case of the North Korea-Japan Normalization Talks, has been being progressed since 1991, is the most potent international negotiation case that can settle those problems.
The aim of this dissertation is to clarify some conditions and patterns of the approach and estrangement at the North Korea-Japan relation from 1990 to 2006. In this dissertation, the history of nomalization talks is divided into four periods, and three decisive variables are presented; (1) the Japanese party and Diet member diplomacy, (2) an alignment with the North Korea-United State and the North Korea-South Korea relations, (3) and pressure from Japanese domestic politics and general opinion.
During the history of nomalization talks, the approach of North Korea-Japan relation tends to occur when there are cooperative Japanese party and Diet member, an alignment with the North Korea-United State and North Korea-South Korea relations and the proper functions of Japanese domestic pressure. On the contrary to the approach, the estrangement of the North Korea-Japan relation tends to occur when there are no cooperative politician, the asymmetry with the North Korea-United State and North Korea-South Korea relations and the aggravation of Japanese domestic pressure.
Considehng these variables, we can estimate the North Korea-Japan amity would be accomplished when there are domestic demands for amity, cooperative politicians who lead the nomalization talks and the guarantee of alignment with the North Korea-United State and North Korea-South Korea relations.
But actually, there is a bare possibility of that situation. Because, even though the nomalization talks is resumed by cooperative politicians, there will be little chance that Japanese domestic pressure is reorganized friendly. And the United State may constrain the North Korea-Japan relation to make it stay in the lower part of the North Korea-United State relation. In conclusion, because these three variables could not function as motive power concurrently, the approach at the North Korea-Japan relation could not be connected to the accomplishment of amity.