새로운 再生産表式의 構想 : Neither Marx nor Keynes 經濟學에 있어서의 두개의 戰線(對「마르크스 」.對「케인즈 」) = A New Conception on the Reproduction Schema

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Preface
1. The theory of crisis is the last chapter of theoretical economics. Since there is no settled conviction even in basic problems of economics with its two hundred years of histroy, there are diversities in the theory of crisis, the super-theory of economics.
2. Modern business cycles theory of post-Keynesians is characterised by the fact that its common analytic tools are multiplier and acceleration principle based on the theory of income. But it is impossible to construct the theory of crisis, which must be based on the premise that total demand and total supply should be in disequilibrium, on the post-Keynesian immediate equilibrium theory which disregards the inevitable disequilibrium in total demand and total supply.
3. The theory of crisis in Marxian economics, also, falls into a chaotic condition because of its error in the law of value. But with all the confusion and cloudiness in its theoretical system. Marx's keen vision on reality gives us far more valuable suggestion than modern business cycles theory, which is precise and technical, can give.
Ⅰ. The Theory of Crisis and the Theory of Reproduction are Split in Marxian
Economics
1. It is understandable that Marxian economics, which aims to clarify the laws of economic movement in modern society, regards crisis as a unique phenomenon of capitalist economy and tries to seek the reason in the fundamental contradiction of capitalist economy, i.e., social production and private ownership. But Marx gives only fragmentary statements on crisis, and arranging his statements we conclude that he seeks the possibility of crisis in function of circulation of money (Type Ⅰ) and function of payment of money (Type Ⅱ) in money economy. These, however, are merely abstract.
2. And Mark seeks to find a more fundamental possibility of crisis in the split of direct production process and circulation process. But, he says, the possibility of crisis is different from the reason of crisis. The reason of crisis is the motive at which possibility turns into reality.
3. According to Marx, the fundamental reason of crisis is poverty and consumption repression of the mass compared to the impulse of capitalist production. But it is not clear how the fundamental reason, comparative shortage of consumption or comparative surplus of production, and the possibility of cirsis link. In this connection there is Interpretation I of Marx's theory of crisis as underconsumption theory.
4. Some Marxian economists intend to clarify the necessity of crisis by the expanded interpretation of the law of diminishing rate of profit. This is Interpretation Ⅱ of Marx's theory of crisis. But the law of diminishing rate of profit itself is doubtful.
5. Marx, in his argument on reproduction and circulation of social total capital, presents the following reproduction schema:
Ⅰ. C₁+V₁+M₁=W₁(Production sector of production means)
Ⅱ. C₂+V₂+M₂=W₂(Production sector of consumption materials)
From this schema he derives the conditions of simple and expanded reproductions. And he dare to regard their negative form as the possibility of crisis. From this Interpretation Ⅲ of Marx's theory of crisis, the theory of intersectoral disproportionality of crisis, is derived by T. Baranovski.
7. Marx shows an actual possibility of proportional development by means of an illustration of a case where expanded reproduction proceeds smoothly under the three hypotheses about capital accumulation rate, rate of surplus value, and equilibrium both in production sector of production means and in production sector of consumption materials. Rosa Luxemburg, on the other hand, illustrates a case of disproportionate development under the hypotheses of increasing rate of capital accumulation, increasing rate of surplus value and higher organic composition of capital, and she introduces the necessity of unproductive consumption or the third person, to evade the disequilibrium. But she does not develop her theory of impossibility of profit realization to a systematic theory of crisis. Lenin presents a new Marxian reproduction schema of proportionate development and denies the theory of impossibility of realization of surplus value by Luxemburg.
Lenin's theory of crisis contains both intersectoral disproportionate theory and underconsumption theory, but superiority is given to the former. Paul Sweezy argues that decreasing rate of profit, the immediate cause of the crisis, is the result of impossibility of full realization of commodity value, and concludes that every crisis is a realization crisis and that underconsumption theory and disproportionate theory are subordinated to it.
Thus, Marx's theory of crisis is neither clear nor systematic, and is full of contradictions. But the greatest defect of the theory is that it is not included in the theory of reproduction systematically. For capitalist production process develops with the alternation of expanded and contracted reproductions and the turning point is the crisis. With such misunderstanding Marx's reproduction theory became a theory without the theory of crisis and the theory of crisis was confused from its bottom.
Ⅱ. The Theory of Crisis and the Theory of Reproduction Should Be Unified Thus.
1. If crisis is understood as a rapid turning point of capitalist expanded reproduction into contracted reproduction, it must be thought that crisis is prepared and breeded within the expanded reproduction process. This means that the possibility of crisis is realized within the expanded reproduction process.
2. The basis of Marxian system of economic theory is the law of value (the law of equivalent exchange). But equivalent exchange is merely an accidental phenomenon and capitalist economy can even be considered as a system in which unequivalent exchange prevails. And all kind of profit is obtained in the process of unequivalent exchange within capital circulation. Profit can phenomenally be considered as the difference between price and cost. Therefore in profit-seeking capitalist economy price (commanded labor) must always be larger than cost (imputed labor). From this we can easily derive a conclusion that profit is materially a non-capitalist purchasing power.
profit=price-cost(phenomenally)
=commanded labor-imputed labor
=unpaid labor in unequivalent exchange (substantially)
=non-capitalist purchasing power(materially).
3. We can properly derive the intrinsic possibility of crisis not on the Marxian theory of exploitation of labor in the production process, but only on the theory that capitalist profit is gained by exploitation of non-capitalist purchaser in the circulation process. For the possibility of crisis is hidden within the capitalist activity by which he determines price with sum of cost and profit. The reason is that profit is the cause of general oversupply. According to T.R.Malthus inevitability of crisis in the capitalist economy necessitates unproductive demand, i.e., demand without supply, and it is proved by spending policy after World War Ⅰ.
4. And the inevitable motive which transforms the possibility of crisis by profit into reality is the capitalist expanded reproduction itself. The process of expanded reproduction promoted by profit maximization contains also a side which denies itself. To prove that crisis is prepared within the reproduction process we construct a price-based, and period-analytical schema, from which is derived the following fundamental relation:
??
where ?? is supply of consumption materials and production means for market demand, ??' demand for them, ?? and ?? savings of laborers and capitalists respectively, ΔB increment of profit ??, It new investment, ?? supply of ordered production means and ?? demand for the ordered production means. For this fundamental relation it is obvious that even if investment and savings are in equilibrium, the supply of consumption materials and production means for market(raw materials, small machines)and tools always exceeds demand by the amount equivalent to intended increment of capitalist profit. That is expanded reproduction necessarily brings excess supply. To cure the disease of capitalist system ［excess supply or disequilibrium］capitalists seek to cultivate new frontier, and if new frontier is dried out, they pile up excess supply as stock. But if the stock exceeds a given level the producers-suppliers abandon the consciousness of realizability of maximum profit and in the consciousness of irrealizability of maximum profit their optimism, expectation, and self-reliance suddenly disappear and pessimism, suspicion, uneasiness, etc. take place. So they cease to endeavor for maximization of profit and for expanded reproduction. Thus crisis comes in a flash. In crisis disequilibrium is cured by the access of supply to demand. During expanded reproduction the principle of profit maximization prevails but during contracted reproduction the principle of equilibrium is superior to that of profit maximization. Thus equilibrium is recovered not by Walrasian principle of equilibrium, that is, immediate and without resistance, but with the resistance of disequilibrium which is the product of a fundamental economic principle, the profit maximization.
6. We must investigate more concretely the process by which the accumulation of disequilibrium is exploded into crisis. It is self-evident that export of X₂' is a releasing factor while import of market-oriented consumption materials and production means is accelerating factor of oversupply. Therefore, the difference between export and import, ?? is the releasing factor of oversupply at period t, so that oversupply at period t is ?? and similar at period t+1, t+2, ..., t+n. Therefore the total supply at period t+n is ??
and total demend,
??
giving total oversupply,
??
If crisis occurs at period t+n, total oversupply decreases from that period with fall of prices, decrease in production and prohibition of import.
7. How can the periodicity of crisis be proved? The gap between X₂' and C' becomes smaller and smaller by decrease in production and the fall of prices. ΔB becomes negative as the profit is decreasing. New investment for improvement increases by sharp competition.
Thus the phenomenon of economic development forms a series of expanded
reproduction-contracted reproduction-expanded reproduction and so on. Here the periodicity of crisis is derived. The period of cyclical movement of crisis becomes shorter because, on the one hand, the accumulation of capital and improved productivity of labor accelerate the accumulation of savings and profits and, on the other, the cultivation of new foreign market is more difficult.
8. It is necessary to clear the difference between our new reproduction schema and Keynesian principle of effective demand. First, our schema is a theory of disequilibrium in which the equilibrium of production means market and the equilibrium of consumption materials market cannot be achieved simulaneously, while the principle of effective
demand is theory of equilibrium in which total supply and total demand coincide. Second, in our schema the intension to maximize profit is the cause of disequilibrium while Keynesian equilibrium is achieved at the point of profit maximization. In Keynes the equilibrium of investment and saving is necessary while in our schema it is not necessary. Lastly, Keynesian cyclical theory of modern economics fails to explain the inevitable general oversupply, which is the common error of the theory.
Ⅲ. Market Widening and Market Deepening
1. We investigate here the usefulness of the above conclusion by applying it to reality. And we survey the history of crisis with Sternberg's Capitalism and Socialism on Trial. According to Sternberg crises in the latter half of nineteenth century are charcterized by comparatively short interruption, and the reason is that European capitalism was dependent on outward expansion and American capitalism on internal expansion. Capitalism in latter nineteenth and early twentieth century developed with unprecedentedly high velocity not by Type Ⅰ capitalist expansion of permeating into backward foreign market but by Type Ⅱ capitalist expansion of exploiting colonies or semicolonies. At the same time domestic market was also expanded. We can explain the comparatively short interruptions of crises in that period with our reproduction schema: The gap between X₂' and C' was contracted by increase in export of X₂' and increase in domestic demand of C'. and comparatively small savings were turned into
new investment.
2. But such an expansion movement stopped before and after World War Ⅰ. It made the inter-war period a stagnation, depression and crisis period, which can be explained by our schema: Inactivity of export could not release the oversupply of X₂' , improvement in productivity expanded the savings S, while investment opportunity was short. In other words, the accelerating factor of depression was dominant.
As the development opportunity of capitalism by external and internal expansion, i.e., market widening, disappears capitalism went into a new phase. After the failure of London Conference in 1933, capitalism was settled as a dualistic system, a bloc economy and an economy which makes spending policy deus ex machina. Spending policy is a policy which pulls up demand to supply and not vice versa; it is a germ of market deepening; it means the creation of purchasing power without supply; it necessarily requires state intervention and it is a theory of income redistribution. Thus the capitalism of 1930's found a new device for survival, i.e., the device of market deepening and with it capitalism could overcome crisis. This is usually called revised capitalism. But it can never be a revision; it is interpenetration of capitalism.
3. It is after the World War Ⅱ that market deepening policy was carried on
successfully. By this the spirit of mutual cooperation was fostered and mutual overthrow was fade away among the capitalist countries. An obvious effect of market deepening was the complete disappearance of economic nationalism. Some examples of market deepening policies are built-in stabilizers, technique innovating investment, and mass marketing as domestic policies, and free trade and development aid for underdeveloped countries as foreign policies. The domestic policies mean the increase in C', and foreign policies the increase in export of X₂'. Thus the development aid is a device to release the crisis.
4. Advanced countries perform war economic policy in the peace time according to the precedent of Nazi. It is true that there was no large crisis after World War Ⅱ. But it does not mean any transformation of capitalism or immunity from crisis. The possibility of crisis exists wherever expanded reproduction exists.
5. In market deepening policy free trade aims to increase the accumulated surplus from the trade. The only necessary condition for the existence of market deepening policy is the maintenance of expanded equilibrium policy in balance of payments among capitalist countries.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 序 言
• Ⅰ. 「마르크스」經濟學에 있어서는 恐慌論과 再生産論이 分裂되어 있다
• Ⅱ. 恐慌論과 再生産論은 이렇게 統一되어야 한다
• Ⅲ. Market Widening과 Market Deepening