Competition in electricity generation in Germany and neighboring countries from a system dynamics perspective : outlook until 2012

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• 1 Summary = 1
• 1.1 Introduction = 1
• 1.2 Aim of the Dissertation = 2
• 1.3 Why System Dynamics? = 3
• 1.4 Model Overview = 5
• 1.4.1 Conceptual View of the Model = 8
• 1.4.1.1 Structure：Power Pool = 8
• 1.4.1.2 Structure：Market Demand = 9
• 1.4.1.3 Structure：Regional Electricity Exchange = 10
• 1.4.1.4 Structure：Transmission Capacities = 10
• 1.4.1.5 Structure：Physical Power-plant Capacities = 11
• 1.4.1.6 Structure：Plant Groups Cost Structure = 11
• 1.4.1.7 Conduct：Bidding Price = 12
• 1.4.1.8 Conduct：Hydro Allocation = 12
• 1.4.1.9 Conduct：Capacity Invest = 13
• 1.4.1.10 Conduct：Capacity Mothballing = 14
• 1.4.1.11 Conduct：Capacity Restart = 14
• 1.4.1.12 Performance：Profit and Business Value = 14
• 1.4.1.13 Performance：Cash Flow = 15
• 1.4.1.14 Performance：Income Statement = 15
• 1.4.1.15 Performance：Electricity Production and Exchange = 15
• 1.4.1.16 Performance：System Free Capacity = 15
• 1.4.2 Relations Between Main Variables = 15
• 1.5 Model Validation = 18
• 1.6 Examples for Model Functioning = 19
• 1.6.1 Electricity Prices = 19
• 1.6.2 Electricity Exchange = 20
• 1.6.3 Allocation of Available Supply of Hydro = 22
• 1.7 Summary of Main Findings = 23
• 1.7.1 Summary of Power-Plant Cost Structure Findings = 23
• 1.7.2 Main Findings from the Reference Case Simulation = 27
• 1.7.2.1 Electricity Prices = 27
• 1.7.2.2 Electricity Exchange = 28
• 1.7.2.3 Capacity = 28
• 1.7.3 Effect of Other Fuel Prices, Especially Gas = 29
• 1.7.4 Effect of Lower Discount Rate = 30
• 1.7.5 Transmission Cost Variation = 31
• 1.8 Further Model Applications = 31
• 2 Detailed Model Description = 33
• 2.1 GENERAL = 33
• 2.1.1 Brief Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling = 33
• 2.1.2 Stock Variables and Exponential Delays = 36
• 2.2 Detailed Model Explanation = 37
• 2.2.1 Structure：Power Pool = 38
• 2.2.2 Structure：Market Demand = 40
• 2.2.3 Structure：Regional Electricity Exchange = 43
• 2.2.4 Structure：Transmission Capacities = 43
• 2.2.5 Structure：Physical Power-plant Capacities = 44
• 2.2.6 Structure：Plant Groups Cost Structure = 46
• 2.2.7 Conduct：Bidding Price = 47
• 2.2.8 Conduct：Hydro Allocation = 50
• 2.2.9 Conduct：Capacity Invest = 51
• 2.2.10 Conduct：Capacity Mothballing = 52
• 2.2.11 Conduct：Capacity Restart = 53
• 2.2.12 Performance：Profit and Business Value = 53
• 3 Data Input for Model = 54
• 3.1 Overview of data Usage in the Model = 54
• 3.2 Detailed Cost Structure of Power-plants including Fuel Prices = 54
• 3.2.1 Fuel Costs Per Electricity Unit = 56
• 3.2.1.1 Costs of Fuel Purchases = 56
• 3.2.1.1.1 Nuclear Fuel = 56
• 3.2.1.1.2 Hard Coal = 56
• 3.2.1.1.3 Lignite = 57
• 3.2.1.1.4 Gas = 58
• 3.2.1.1.5 Oil = 60
• 3.2.1.1.6 Hydro = 63
• 3.2.1.2 Relationship Between Nominal And Real Efficiencies = 63
• 3.2.1.3 Efficiencies of Existing Nuclear Power-plants = 64
• 3.2.1.4 Efficiencies of Existing Coal Power-plants = 65
• 3.2.1.5 Efficiencies of Existing CCGT Power-plants = 69
• 3.2.1.6 Efficiencies of Existing Conventional Gas or Oil Power-plants = 70
• 3.2.1.7 Efficiencies of Existing GT Power-plants = 72
• 3.2.1.8 Efficiencies of Existing Hydro Power-plants = 74
• 3.2.1.9 Efficiencies of Newly to be Commissioned Plants = 75
• 3.2.2 Labor Costs = 75
• 3.2.2.1 Wages = 75
• 3.2.2.2 Employees in Nuclear Power-plants = 76
• 3.2.2.3 Employees in Coal Power-plants = 77
• 3.2.2.4 Employees in Conventional Oil-and Gas-Fired Power-plants = 79
• 3.2.2.5 Employees in CCGT Power-plants = 80
• 3.2.2.6 Employees in GT Power-plants = 81
• 3.2.2.7 Employees in Hydro Plants = 83
• 3.2.2.8 Labor Productivity Improvement Potential = 84
• 3.2.2.9 Future Workforce Levels of Newly Commissioned Plants = 87
• 3.2.3 Purchase of Material and Labor = 87
• 3.2.4 Capital Costs = 88
• 3.2.5 Specific Data Used by the Model = 90
• 3.3 Transmission Capacities, Distances, Regional Demand = 90
• 3.4 District Heating = 94
• 3.4.1 Importance of District Heating for Electricity Generation Costs = 95
• 3.4.2 Consideration of District Heating = 97
• 3.5 Political Restrictions = 99
• 4 Scenario Analysis = 100
• 4.1 Limitations of the Model = 100
• 4.1.1 Forecasting or Not? = 100
• 4.1.2 Conceptual Limitations = 101
• 4.1.3 Limitations due to Abstraction Level = 101
• 4.1.4 Overcoming the Limitations due to Abstraction Level in the Future = 103
• 4.2 Overview of Scenarios = 104
• 4.3 Base Scenario = 105
• 4.3.1 Fuel Prices and Transmission Costs in Base Scenario = 105
• 4.3.2 Outcome Base Scenario = 106
• 4.3.2.1 Overview Price Evolution = 106
• 4.3.2.2 Transmission Capacity Utilization = 117
• 4.3.2.3 Electricity Exchange = 119
• 4.3.2.4 Overview of Capacity Evolution = 130
• 4.3.2.5 Regional／Company Performance Comparison = 133
• 4.3.2.6 Capacity and Prices By Region = 136
• 4.3.2.6.1 RWE Region = 137
• 4.3.2.6.2 PreussenElektra Region = 142
• 4.3.2.6.3 Bayernwerk = 146
• 4.3.2.6.4 VEAG Region = 149
• 4.3.2.6.5 EnBW = 153
• 4.3.2.6.6 VEW Region = 157
• 4.3.2.6.7 HEW Region = 161
• 4.3.2.6.8 Bewag Region = 164
• 4.3.2.6.9 The Netherlands = 168
• 4.3.2.6.10 Belgium = 172
• 4.3.2.6.11 France = 175
• 4.3.2.6.12 Switzerland = 178
• 4.3.2.6.13 Austria = 183
• 4.3.2.6.14 Poland & Czech Republic = 185
• 4.3.2.6.15 Scandinavia = 188
• 4.3.2.6.16 Denmark = 194
• 4.3.2.6.17 Italy = 196
• 4.4 Fuel Price Variation Scenarios = 198
• 4.4.1 Outcome of Capacity Development = 200
• 4.4.2 Country Overview of Electricity Prices and Company Value In Three Fuel Cost Scenarios = 204
• 4.4.2.1 RWE Region = 205
• 4.4.2.2 PE Region = 206
• 4.4.2.3 Bayernwerk Region = 206
• 4.4.2.4 VEAG Region = 207
• 4.4.2.5 EnBW Region = 208
• 4.4.2.6 VEW Region = 208
• 4.4.2.7 HEW Region = 209
• 4.4.2.8 Bewag Region = 210
• 4.4.2.9 Netherlands = 211
• 4.4.2.10 Belgium = 212
• 4.4.2.11 France = 213
• 4.4.2.12 Switzerland = 214
• 4.4.2.13 Austria = 215
• 4.4.2.14 Poland and Czech Republic = 216
• 4.4.2.15 Scandinavia = 217
• 4.4.2.16 Denmark = 218
• 4.4.2.17 Italy = 219
• 4.5 Effect of Different Discount Rates = 220
• 4.6 Effect of Nuclear Phase-Out in Scandinavia = 224
• 4.6.1 Effect on Scandinavia of Nuclear Phase-Out = 224
• 4.6.2 Effect of Nuclear Phase-Out in Scandinavia on Other Regions in the Model = 227
• 4.7 Transmission Cost Variation Scenarios = 228
• 4.7.1 Transmission Costs in Different Scenarios = 228
• 4.7.2 Outcome of Transmission Price Variation Scenarios = 231
• 4.7.2.1 Electricity Price and Capacity = 231
• 4.7.3 Electricity Exchange = 232
• 4.8 Productivity Improvement Scenario = 232
• 4.8.1.1 Electricity Price and Capacity = 233
• 5 References = 235
• 6 Appendix = 238
• 6.1 Existing Parts of Model = 238
• 6.2 ABBREVIATIONS = 239
• 6.3 Economic Profit$$a^TM$$ = 239
• 6.4 Power-plant Cost Structure Additional Information = 240
• 6.4.1 Effect of Utilization Rate On Efficiencies = 240
• 6.4.2 Efficiencies of Existing Nuclear Power-plants = 241
• 6.4.3 Efficiencies of Existing Conventional Gas or Oil Power-plants = 241
• 6.4.4 Efficiencies of Existing GT Power-plants = 242
• 6.4.5 Efficiencies of Newly to be Commissioned Plants = 242
• 6.4.6 Employees in Nuclear Power-plants = 243
• 6.4.7 Employees in Coal Power-plants = 243
• 6.4.8 Employees in Conventional Oil-and Gas-Fired Power-plants = 244
• 6.4.9 Employees in CCGT Power-plants = 245