Prospects for Closer Economics Relations between Europe and East Asia

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

East Asia has rapidly become the third centre of gravity for global economic activity. North America is relatively well integrated with East Asia, but Europe is not. This paper explores the extent to which economic growth and trade policy development over the next decade will strengthen European-East Asian economic integration, and what scope there is to facilitate that set of bilateral relationships. Use is made of a global CGE model (GTAP) to project the world economy to 2005 under various scenarios including Uruguay Round implementation, faster economic growth in China, reneging on the promised phaseout of textile quotas, and APEC trade liberalization. The bilateral trade consequences in those scenarios highlight the fact that as East Asia's relative importance in the world economy keeps growing, so too does its importance to Europe. More surprisingly, the importance of Europe to East Asia also is projected to to grow with Uruguay Round implementation, and even APEC trade reform does not reduce Europe's projected trade with East Asia. (JEL Classification : F11, F13, F14, F15, F17)

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ.Introduction
• Ⅱ.International Economic Integration in Europe, Asia and Elsewhere to the mid-1990s
• Ⅲ.Prospective Effects of Global Economic Growth and Trade Reform by 2005
• A.The GTAP Model
• B.Effects of Global Economic Growth, Uruguay Round Implementation, and China's WTO Accession on Total Trade and Welfare by 2005
• C.Effects on the Sectoral Composition of Production and Trade
• D.Effects on Bilateral Trade Between western Europe and East Asis
• E.Effects of Altering Some Assumptions and of Further Trade Reform in APEC
• Ⅳ.Conclusions