가강수량 특성을 이용한 극치호우의 기후변화 예측 = Extreme Storm Estimation by Climate Change Using Precipitable Water

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 고려하여 극치호우로서 가능최대강수량의 변화를 예측하였다. 기존의 기후변화에 따른 극치호우 예측은 평균적인 모델링 결과를 기초로 하고 있어 극한값의 재현이나 거동 예측과 관련하여 많은 문제점이 지적되어왔다. 이와 관련하여 본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오에서 가장 신뢰도가 높은 기온의 변화와 물리적으로 상관성이 높은 가강수량 추정방법을 이용하여 가능최대강수량의 규모를 직접 추정하는 방법을 적용하였다. 그 결과 국내 가능최대강수량의 규모가 향후 100년 이후 약 40% 정도까지 증가할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 확률강우량의 변동폭 등과 관련해서도 간접적인 참고수치로 이용가능 할 것으로 기대된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, probable maximum precipitation change was predicted using RCP 8.5 IPCC climate change scenario as extreme storm change. The modelling results based on average have the restriction on extreme rainfall value representation and future behavior prediction. To overcome these problems, this study uses air temperature change and precipitable water relationship in order to calculate the magnitude of probable maximum precipitation. The results showed about 40% increase in probable maximum precipitation. These were expected to use as reference of extreme storm increase such as IDF changes.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 김병식, "기후변화가 극한강우와 I-D-F분석에 미치는 영향 평가" 한국수자원학회 41 (41): 379-394, 2008

2 建設省土木硏究所水資源開發硏究所, "日本の主要地点におけ る可能最大日雨量－濕度補正法による推定結果－"

3 Moon, I., "Variations of Typoon Intensity due to Climate Change" 312-313, 2007

4 Prudhomme, C., "Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchment" 277 : 1-23, 2003

5 Oh, J, "Typoon Simulation using GME model" 5 (5): 9-13, 2007

6 Mirza, M. Q., "Trend and persistence in precipitation in the south asia" 43 (43): 845-858, 1998

7 National Institute of Meterological Research (NIMR), "The Application Report of Regional Climate Change Scenario for the National Climate Change (III)"

8 Gellens, D., "Streamflow response of Belgian catchment to IPCC climate change scenarios" 210 : 242-258, 1998

9 Panagoulia, D., "Sensitivity of flood events to global climate change" 191 : 208-222, 1997

10 National Institute of Meterological Research (NIMR), "Report of Climate Change Scenarios in 2011 for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report" 2011

11 Grotch, S.L., "Regional intercomparisons of general circulation model predictions and historical data" US Dept. of Energy 1988

12 Boorman, D.B, "Recognizing the uncer-tainty in the quantification of the effect of climate change on hydrological response" 35 : 415-434, 1997

13 Korea Water Resources Association (KWWA), "PMP and PMF calculation procedures guidelines"

14 Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT), "National PMP Map"

15 Meehl, G.A., "More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century" 305 : 994-997, 2004

16 World Meteorological Organization(WMO), "Manual for estimation of probable maximum precipitation 3rd Ed" Operational Hydrology Report No.1 2008

17 World Meteorological Organization(WMO), "Manual for estimation of probable maximum precipitation 2nd Ed" 1986

18 Kerr, R. A, "Is Katrina a harbinger of still more powerful hurricanes?" 309 : 1807-, 2005

19 Emanuel, K., "Increasing destructiveness of trophical cyclones over the past 30 years" 436 : 686-688, 2005

20 Yoon, Y., "Hydrology" Cheongmoongak 2007

21 Lettenmaier, D.P, "Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacromento-San Joaquin river basin, California, to global warming" 26 (26): 69-86, 1990

22 Oh, J., "Future Typoon Intensity Change : Climate Change Impact on East Asia Typoon" 21-24, 2007

23 Natural Environment Research Center, "Flood Studies Report, Vol" Meteorological Studies 38-41, 1975

24 Saelthun, N. R., "Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the Nordic coundries" 552 : 170-, 1998

25 Webster, P. J., "Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment" 309 : 1844-1846, 2005

26 Kite, G. W., "Application of a land class hydrological model to climate change" 29 : 2377-2384, 1993

27 Korea Development Institute (KDI), "Adequacy of Dam Design Criteria-PMP and PMF calculation"

28 Lee, K., "A hydrometeorological study on the maximum 12-h persisting dew point at 1000 hPa for moisture maximization of heavy precipitation recorded in South Korea" 35 (35): 519-530, 1999