분위사상법을 적용한 RCP 시나리오 기반 시군별 홍수 위험도 평가 = Flood Risk Assessment Based on Bias-Corrected RCP Scenarios with Quantile Mapping at a Si-Gun Level

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 김성재, "주성분 분석을 이용한 농업생산기반의 재해 취약성 평가에 관한 연구" 한국농공학회 55 (55): 31-38, 2013

2 박지훈, "분위사상법을 이용한 RCP 기반 미래 극한강수량 편의보정 ; 우리나라 20개 관측소를 대상으로" 한국농공학회 54 (54): 133-142, 2012

3 김상민, "국립공원내 홍수피해 저감을 위한 미계측 산림지역의 설계홍수량 추정" 한국농공학회 51 (51): 107-113, 2009

4 Ministry of Environment and National Institute of Environmental Research(ME and NIER), "Vulnerability map by sector to climate change"

5 "United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)"

6 Brooks, N. W., "The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaption" 15 (15): 151-163, 2005

7 Moss, R. H., "The U. S. Department of Energy" The U.S. Department of Energy 8-18, 2001

8 Climatic Research Unit(CRU), "STARDEX final report" 2-5, 2005

9 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT), "Long-term comprehensive water plan(2006~2020)"

10 Park, J., "Flood vulnerability based on biascorrected RCP scenarios at a Si-Gun level" Seoul National University 2013

11 National Disaster Management Institute(NDMI), "Development of community-based flood disaster risk reduction index"

12 Füssel, H. -M., "Climate change vulnerability assessments : an evolution of conceptual thinking" 75 : 301-329, 2006

13 National Institute of Meteorological Research(NIMR), "Climate change scenario report for IPCC AR5"

14 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), "Climate change 2007: impacts, adaption and vulnerability" Cambridge University Press 2007

15 Myeong, S. J., "Assessing vulnerability to climate change of the physical infrastructure developing adaption measures in korea Ⅱ" Korea Environment Institute 45-116, 2010

16 Koh, K. J., "A study on vulnerability assessment to climate change in Gyeonggi-Do" Gyeonggi Research Institute 75-94, 2009