Since 1992, when Korea and China established a diplomatic relationship, Korea’s economic dependency on China has been dramatically increased. As China’s government has tried to transform the industry structure and enhance the market competitivenes...
Since 1992, when Korea and China established a diplomatic relationship, Korea’s economic dependency on China has been dramatically increased. As China’s government has tried to transform the industry structure and enhance the market competitiveness of local firms, Korean firms’ advantages have been diminished. Moreover, the soft landing of China’s economic growth has affected Korea’s economy as well. Recently, Due to recent geopolitical issues, China has tried to apply economic pressure. Highly dependent economic structure on China was exposed as a Korea economy’s weakness. Therefore, it is increasingly important for Korean firms to spread the business outside of China and find alternative markets for a new growth engine.
In 2015, ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was launched. As the fourth biggest market in the world, ASEAN was spotlighted as an alternative market for Korean firms. Indeed, it was not the first time ASEAN drew attention. It was one the most attractive targets among investors until the Global Financial Crisis in the late 2000s. Korean firms have invested countries such as Vietnam or Indonesia for a production base due to China no longer providing an efficient environment for manufacturing. In addition, the purpose and scope of foreign investment in ASEAN has been diversified and expanded as the ASEAN economy has grown - i.e. acquiring production bases to developing domestic market and manufacturing to service sector.
Many institutions like Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) or Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) have actively researched each of the ASEAN markets and their entry strategies for Korean firms; however, there are only few studies in the Korean firms’ direct investment determinants in ASEAN, especially service sectors which recently became more important. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic perspective, government policy, and social infrastructure of each ASEAN country compared to China. Using a panel regression, the factors of Korean firms’ direct investment inflows in 10 ASEAN countries over the period 2005 to 2016 was explored. It would provide helpful implications for any Korean firms to make decisions to enter the ASEAN markets or reinvest.
The ASEAN markets are not as attractive as China considering its scale of economy, economic growth and stabilization of prices as well as their foreign exchange rate. On the other hand, they have a bigger portion of the population under 40 years old. Moreover, wage rates are much lower than Korea and slightly lower than China, except Singapore. Moreover, the ASEAN economic systems are more open to the outside world than China regarding the dependency on international trading. These characteristics show that the markets are efficient enough to develop not only manufacturing but also service sectors. The policies of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and social institutional environment are varied by country. Relatively developed countries like Singapore, Malaysia, or Thailand have well-organized infrastructures of business and are more open to FDI, which the late ASEAN countries do not have. However, in comparison to 10 ASEAN countries, China’s environment level remains the middle: half of ASEAN markets are acceptable and attractive as a destination of FDI.
Based on the statistical analysis, this reveals that the FDI in ASEAN by Korean firms is related to market size (GDP), openness (a portion of trading in GDP), government influence (government expenditure in GDP), social infrastructure (telephone registration), and institutional development (administration efficiency and information disclosure). After the global financial crisis in 2008 to 2009, institutional factors became more significant than they were during the previous period (2005-2009). Moreover, the FDI in service sectors is affected by market openness, whereas the FDI in manufacturing is affected by the geographic proximity.
This result would provide objective clues for Korean firms in decision-making - whether they would enter the ASEAN markets, or would invest additional funds to existing businesses or not - by comparing each of the 10 ASEAN countries’ investment environments and tracking significant factors.