Power Transition Theory and the U.S. Decisions in Favor of Preventive War: A Linkage between Theory and Practice

( Jun Hyuk Park ) 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 2012 The Korean Journal of Security Affairs Vol.17 No.1

Power shifts between interstate dyadic relationships are generally considered one of the most important factors affecting the preventive motivation for war. It is also a prominent cause of war in power transition theory. This theory predicts that war is likely to occur when the power of a challenger rises to parity with that of a dominant power. Based on this theory`s prediction, this paper can state two basic hypotheses as follows: (1) If power parity exists, preventive war is more likely; and (2) If power preponderance exists, preventive war is less likely. However, despite the second hypothesis indicating that war is less likely with power preponderance, the United States has often considered and launched preventive wars against middle and small powers. By critically evaluating the relevance of the above hypotheses given preventive wars launched and considered by the U.S. after World War II, this paper argues that the expected cost of war has been a crucial factor affecting the decision to engage in preventive war. In this context, this paper argues that the absence of war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in the Cold War era was caused largely by the prohibitively high expected cost of war rather than by the preponderant power of the U.S. over the Soviet Union. This argument can also be applicable to the confrontation between the U.S. and other major and strong middle powers like China and North Korea. However, the U.S. launched preventive wars against weak middle and small powers such as Iraq and Grenada largely because the expected costs of wars in these conflicts were very low. In order to verify these arguments, this paper presents the modified version of the hypotheses of power transition theory and identifies intervening variables affecting the U.S. decisions in favor of preventive war.

Power Transition Theory and the U.S. Decisions in Favor of Preventive War: A Linkage between Theory and Practice

박준혁 국방대학교 국가안전보장문제연구소 2012 The Korean Journal of Security Affairs Vol.17 No.1

Power shifts between interstate dyadic relationships are generally considered one of the most important factors affecting the preventive motivation for war. It is also a prominent cause of war in power transition theory. This theory predicts that war is likely to occur when the power of a challenger rises to parity with that of a dominant power. Based on this theory’s prediction, this paper can state two basic hypotheses as follows: (1) If power parity exists, preventive war is more likely; and (2) If power preponderance exists, preventive war is less likely. However, despite the second hypothesis indicating that war is less likely with power preponderance, the United States has often considered and launched preventive wars against middle and small powers. By critically evaluating the relevance of the above hypotheses given preventive wars launched and considered by the U.S. after World War II, this paper argues that the expected cost of war has been a crucial factor affecting the decision to engage in preventive war. In this context, this paper argues that the absence of war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in the Cold War era was caused largely by the prohibitively high expected cost of war rather than by the preponderant power of the U.S. over the Soviet Union. This argument can also be applicable to the confrontation between the U.S. and other major and strong middle powers like China and North Korea. However, the U.S. launched preventive wars against weak middle and small powers such as Iraq and Grenada largely because the expected costs of wars in these conflicts were very low. In order to verify these arguments, this paper presents the modified version of the hypotheses of power transition theory and identifies intervening variables affecting the U.S. decisions in favor of preventive war.

Improvement of Dynamic Behavior of Shunt Active Power Filter Using Fuzzy Instantaneous Power Theory

Nasser Eskandarian,Yousef Alinejad Beromi,Shahrokh Farhangi 전력전자학회 2014 JOURNAL OF POWER ELECTRONICS Vol.14 No.6

Dynamic behavior of the harmonic detection part of an active power filter (APF) has an essential role in filter compensation performances during transient conditions. Instantaneous power (p?q) theory is extensively used to design harmonic detectors for active filters. Large overshoot of p?q theory method deteriorates filter response at a large and rapid load change. In this study the harmonic estimation of an APF during transient conditions for balanced three-phase nonlinear loads is conducted. A novel fuzzy instantaneous power (FIP) theory is proposed to improve conventional p?q theory dynamic performances during transient conditions to adapt automatically to any random and rapid nonlinear load change. Adding fuzzy rules in p?q theory improves the decomposition of the alternating current components of active and reactive power signals and develops correct reference during rapid and random current variation. Modifying p?q theory internal high-pass filter performance using fuzzy rules without any drawback is a prospect. In the simulated system using MATLAB/SIMULINK, the shunt active filter is connected to a rapidly time-varying nonlinear load. The harmonic detection parts of the shunt active filter are developed for FIP theory-based and p?q theory-based algorithms. The harmonic detector hardware is also developed using the TMS320F28335 digital signal processor and connected to a laboratory nonlinear load. The software is developed for FIP theory-based and p?q theory-based algorithms. The simulation and experimental tests results verify the ability of the new technique in harmonic detection of rapid changing nonlinear loads.

Improvement of Dynamic Behavior of Shunt Active Power Filter Using Fuzzy Instantaneous Power Theory

Eskandarian, Nasser,Beromi, Yousef Alinejad,Farhangi, Shahrokh The Korean Institute of Power Electronics 2014 JOURNAL OF POWER ELECTRONICS Vol.14 No.6

Dynamic behavior of the harmonic detection part of an active power filter (APF) has an essential role in filter compensation performances during transient conditions. Instantaneous power (p-q) theory is extensively used to design harmonic detectors for active filters. Large overshoot of p-q theory method deteriorates filter response at a large and rapid load change. In this study the harmonic estimation of an APF during transient conditions for balanced three-phase nonlinear loads is conducted. A novel fuzzy instantaneous power (FIP) theory is proposed to improve conventional p-q theory dynamic performances during transient conditions to adapt automatically to any random and rapid nonlinear load change. Adding fuzzy rules in p-q theory improves the decomposition of the alternating current components of active and reactive power signals and develops correct reference during rapid and random current variation. Modifying p-q theory internal high-pass filter performance using fuzzy rules without any drawback is a prospect. In the simulated system using MATLAB/SIMULINK, the shunt active filter is connected to a rapidly time-varying nonlinear load. The harmonic detection parts of the shunt active filter are developed for FIP theory-based and p-q theory-based algorithms. The harmonic detector hardware is also developed using the TMS320F28335 digital signal processor and connected to a laboratory nonlinear load. The software is developed for FIP theory-based and p-q theory-based algorithms. The simulation and experimental tests results verify the ability of the new technique in harmonic detection of rapid changing nonlinear loads.

입법자 구속설 비판

정주백(Joo-Baek Jeong) 충남대학교 법학연구소 2012 法學硏究 Vol.23 No.2

헌법상의 평등 조항과 관련하여 입법자 구속설과 비구속설의 대립이 있다. 이 문제에 관하여 다음과 같은 점을 확인할 수 있다. 첫째, 입법자 구속설과 비구속설은 평등조항 전체 또는 헌법 제11조 제1항이 아니라, 헌법 11조 제1항 전문이 입법자에 대해 구속력을 가지는가 하는 문제로 다루어져야 한다. 둘째, 누가 입법자인가는, ‘기관’이 아니라, ‘기능’을 기준으로 하여 판단되어야 한다. 셋째, 법 집행에 있어서 모든 국민이 평등하다는 것은, 법이 획일적으로, 법에 기재된 바대로 집행되어야 한다는 것을 의미한다. 넷째, 헌법 제11조 제1항 전문은 입법자를 구속하지 않는다. 가장 강력한 논거는 문언이다. 다섯째, 입법자 구속설의 논거들은 타당하지 아니하다. 입법자 구속설의 가장 주류적인 논거인, 법을 평등하게 집행하더라도 법의 내용이 평등하지 아니하다면 불평등은 그대로 남는다는 주장은 법을 평등하게 집행한다는 것이 무엇을 의미하는가를 이해하지 못 한 견해다. 여섯째, 입법자 구속설은, 헌법 제11보 제1항 전문의 적용범위를 확장할 뿐만 아니라, 규범의 내용을 변질시켰으며, 이로 인하여 이론에 있어 많은 혼란을 야기하였다. Art.11(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter “KC”) states, “All citizens shall be equal before the law. There shall be no discrimination in political, economic, social or cultural life on account of sex, religion or social status.” 1. A theoretical confrontation exists between two interpretations of the first sentence of Art.11(1) KC. One theory asserts its binding power on law makers, and the other denies such binding power. (a) The issue is whether or not the first sentence of Art.11(1) KC has binding power over law makers. (b) Not ‘agency’ but rather ‘function’ should be the criteria used to distinguish law enforcers from law makers. (c) The first sentence of Art.11(1) KC simply directs law enforcers to apply existing law consistently and equally to all citizens. 2. The first sentence of Art.11(1) KC does not bind law makers. The most obvious evidence is the explicit language of the sentence itself, which modifies the term “equal” with the qualifier “before the law.” The theory asserting the binding power of the sentence, however, ignores the clear language of the article and relies on several indirect, but ultimately unpersuasive arguments. (a) First, proponents of the binding power theory argue that even if the law is enforced equally, inequality between citizens can remain if the laws themselves may not be equal. Whether or not the laws themselves are “equal” is quite distinct from whether the laws are enforced in a consistent and equal manner with respect to all citizens, which is all that the first sentence of Art.11(1) KC requires. (b) Second, proponents of the binding power theory contend that because the judiciary has the power of judicial review over the acts of law makers, the equality clause should have the binding power on law makers. This is an unwarranted leap of logic, as the latter cannot inevitably be drawn from the former. (c) Finally, proponents of the binding power theory argue that as Art.1(3) BL of Germany provides that all constitutional provisions are binding on legislators, the Korean equality clause must also bind law makers. However, it is the specific nature of each individual provision that determines whether that provision has binding power over law makers. Futhermore, the Korean Constitution does not contain such a provision. 3. The binding power theory not only expands the scope of application but also distorts the meaning of the first sentence of Art.11(1)KC.

세력전이론의 전개, 진화, 그리고 적용에 대한 고찰

김영준(Young Joon Kim) 고려대학교 일민국제관계연구원 2015 국제관계연구 Vol.20 No.1

미중 관계의 국제 질서에 대한 영향력은 점점 더 심화되고 있으며, 그 범위도 점차 확대되어 가고 있다. 세력전이론(Power Transition Theory)은 1950년대부터 꾸준히 이러한 현상의 등장을 예견해왔고, 이에 대한 국가들의 행동을 설명하고 국제 관계에서 전쟁과 평화의 문제를 예측하기 위하여 지속적인 발전을 도모하여 왔다. 따라서 세력전이론의 과학적 · 합리적 이론으로서의 의미와 현실 국제 정치에 대한 적용에 대해 정확히 이해하는 것은 중 · 미 관계의 국제 질서에 대한 영향력과 한반도의 장래에 대한 영향력을 생각해 봤을 때 매우 중요하다. 이 글은 이런 관점에서 미중 관계의 변화를 설명하고 예측하는 데 유용한 국제 정치 이론으로서 세력전이론에 대한 적확한 이해를 도모하는 한편 연구자들이 세력전이론을 올바로 활용할 수 있도록 도움을 주고자 한다. The development and changes in US-China relations affected international relations after the end of the Cold War. The power transition theory was developed to explain the occurrence of conflicts and cooperation among the states in the international system and has predicted the power transition between the United States and China from the 1950s. The power transition theory challenges the view that a balance of power fosters peace and proposes instead that conflicts are more likely when the national power between the unsatisfied nations reach parity. With its focus on the major states in the international system, the power transition theory is especially known for its claim that the danger of systemic war is greatest when a rising unsatisfied challenger catches up with or even overtakes a declining dominant power. On the other hand, it also claims that the asymmetry of power among states ensures peace in the international system. The power transition theory has made significant contributions to the study of international relations through its theoretical as well as methodological developments. This paper introduces how power transition theory has evolved over the last six decades and also explores the possibility of further developments.

고려시대 풍수지리설의 특성과 그 원인

김호동 대구사학회 2012 대구사학 Vol.109 No.-

It was widely known to people the thought of divination base on topography during Goryeo dynasty was combined with divination theory of land concerning capital town as geographic site, which was well presented as secret geographic complementary idea(裨補思想), theory of rising and decline of topographic power(地氣衰旺說), and land relationship idea(延基說) in association with Buddhism. This paper discussed about the characteristics of theory of divination based on topography during Goryeo Dynasty was mainly based on the logic of ‘theory of rising and decline of topographic power’, which emphasize the hypothesis of change of utilization experience of agricultural land in the history, and discussed the establishment, the change, and the decline of the theory of divination based on topographic rising and decline of power. The ‘theory of rising and decline of topographic power’ explain the power of land should be declined after some years of use or it might rise again after some period. The theory of rising and decline of topographic power and the relationship reflect the tendency of the era for the method of using the land in agricultural techniques which need land recess for better crop in agricultural cultivation. In 13∼14 century, the method of land recess was recovered the yearly cultivation method and some theorists of divination insisted the power of Gegyeong capital town was not closed but theory of divination based on topography failed to suggest it’s theoretical foundation in the process of capital town transfer movement to Hanyang(Seoul) in the late Goryeo and early Choseon dynasty. The theory of rising and decline of topographic power by philosopher Doseon during Silla Dynasty should terminate it’s persuasion and transmit the hegemony to the Confucian theorists for the theoretical foundation.

연구논문 : 조선 초기 태종(太宗)과 하륜(河崙)의 천견론(天譴論)을 빙자한 정국 운영 양상

류창규 ( Chang Gyu Ryu ) 호남사학회(구-전남사학회) 2012 역사학연구 Vol.45 No.-

태종대 정국 운영의 향방은 왕권의 안정과 강화로 귀결된다고 하겠다. 태종 대 정치체제의 개편과 정치세력의 부침에 대한 연구가 그러한 점을 뒷받침한다. 특히 왕권 강화를 위한 여정이 6조의 기능 강화를 비롯한 통치체제의 변화와 공신이나 외척 등 특정 정치세력의 제거로 나타났다고 하겠다. 여기에는 태종의 신하 간의 견제와 균형을 통한, 곧 왕권에 위협이 될 만한 세력을 용인하지 않은 정치적 술책이 작용하였다고 보았다. 그리고 그 배경에는 태종의 왕위 계승에서 비정통성, 도덕성의 결여가 작용하였다고 한다. 태종대 정국에 대한 이러한 일반적인 견해는 큰 틀에서 어긋나지 않지만, 태종의 정국 운영 방식과 특정 정치세력 제거 과정의 의미는 다시 들여다 볼 필요가 있다. 이 글에서는 태종과 그의 최측근 신하였던 하륜의 정치적 행보를 통해 정국 운영의 양태를 다시 살펴보았다. 특히 재이에 따른 천견론을 내세워 태종 이 선위 파동을 일으킬 때나, 천견론에 따른 하륜의 사직 사건이 이어졌을 때 정치적 변화가 심하였다. 나아가 태종의 선위 파동과 하륜의 사직은 서로 연관되어 나타난다. 이러한 점에 주목함으로서 태종의 정국 운영 방향과 하륜의 역할을 파악할 수 있었다. 태종 즉위 후 왕위의 정통성과 도덕성 문제로 왕위가 위약할 수밖에 없었다. 제도 개편을 통한 왕권 안정 추구 노력에 하륜이 앞장섰다. 이러한 노력에 가장 위협이 될 만한 인물들은 태조를 따르던 이들 가운데서도 병권을 장악하고 있던 이들이었다. 태조의 인척이자 좌명공신이었던 이거이가 본보기다. 하륜의 천견론을 빙자한 사직은 바로 이거이의 제거를 노린 것이었다. 태종과 하륜의 천견론을 매개로 한 정국 변화 모색의 시작이었다. 하지만, 사사전 혁파나 동북면 양전 등을 둘러싸고 이에 반대하는 이들이 태조를 등에 업고 천견론을 매개로 태종과 하륜에게 압박을 가함으로써 상황은 반전되었다. 태조를 배경으로 하는 친 태조 성향 세력은 태종 왕위의 안정에 걸림돌이었다. 태종 2년, 태조를 등에 업고 일어났던 동북면의 조사위 난을 평정하고 이어서 명 영락제로부터 왕위를 인정받은 이후 태종의 왕위는 안정되었다. 그런데 태종 6년 천견론에 따라 하륜이 사직을 요청하고, 얼마 후 태종이 선위 파동을 일으킨다. 하륜의 사직과 태종의 선위 파동에는 무관 세력들의 불만이 작용하였다. 사사전 혁파와 토지 지급에 불만을 품은 무관층이 하륜을 비방하였으며, 태종의 외척이었던 민무구 등이 병권과 관련하여 불만을 가지고 있었다는 점이 태종으로 하여금 천견론을 빌어 선위 파동을 일으키게 하였던 것이다. 이로 인해 결국은 민씨 외척 세력의 제거의 단서가 열리게 되었다. 태종 9년, 다시 천견론을 빌어 하륜의 사직과 태종의 선위 파동이 일어난다. 태종의 선위 파동은 외척 민씨 일파와 가까웠으며 태종의 즉위에 공로가 컸던 이무를 겨냥한 것이었다. 이무 역시 오랜 동안 병권을 장악하고 있었으며, 그를 따르는 무인 세력이 포진되어 있었다. 민씨 일파를 두둔하였다는 점 등 여러 죄목으로 태종이 이무를 죽였지만, 결정적인 요인은 이무를 중심으로 무인 세력이 형성되었다는 점이었을 것이다. 태종은 이무와 친밀한 관계였던 하륜을 사직하도록 함으로써 그 사건에 비켜서도록 하였다. 천견론을 매개로 한 태종의 선위 표명과 하륜의 사직은 병권을 장악하고 있는 이들 가운데 왕위에 위협이 될 만한 세력 제거를 염두에 두고 이루어진 고도의 정략적인 정국 운영 방식이었던 셈이다. 표면적으로는 반왕세력이나 외척세력, 공신세력의 약화·제거와 정치세력 개편으로 보이지만 병권을 사적으로 장악한 세력과 무인을 측근 집단으로 세력화한 인물들에 대한 불식이었던 것이다. 하륜이 일정한 역할을 맡게 된 것은 태종이 가장 신뢰하는 신하였다는 점도 작용하였지만. 하륜이 병권에 가까이 한 적이 없다는 사실이 그것을 가능하게 하였을 것이다. Stabilizing and reinforcing king`s power was critical in managing political situations in King Taejong era. Studies of revision of political system and fluctuation of political parties in Taejong era support the aspect. Especially, the process of reinforcing Icing`s power was a form of changing political system such as fortifying the six department`s(6曹) functions or removing specific political parties such as retainer`s or Min(queen`s family)`s. Taejong`s political strategy of taking advantage of mutual containment and according equilibrium, which is also a zero-tolerance policy toward political parties that could be a possible threat to his power seemed to work in the process. And the lack of linear descent of royalty and the lack of morality affected the strategy in the background. The aforementioned perspective regarding to the political situation in Taejong era is general, and reasonable in the large scale. However, it is needed to re-consider the meaning of Taejong`s way of managing political situation and removing specific political parties. This paper re-investigates the figure of political situation management through political stance of Taejong and Ha, Ryun(河崙) who was a close retainer of Taejong. Especially, political fluctuation was extreme in Taejong`s trial of abdication and Ha, Ryun`s trial of resignation according to Cheon-gyeon theory when natural disaster occurred. Moreover, both trials seem to be related to each other. By focusing this fact, it is able to understand Taejong`s way of political situation management and Ha, Ryun`s role in it. After Taejong`s enthronement, Weakness of the king`s power was inevitable because of its lack of orthodoxy and morality. Ha, Ryun actively pursued stabilizing king`s regime via revising system. Possible threats especially came from those following King Taejo with military power. I. Geo-i(李居易) who was Taejo`s cousin and Jwamyeong-Gongsin(retainer) is the case. Ha, Ryun`s resignation according to the Cheon-gyeon theory aimed to remove I, Geo-i. It`s was the start of Taejong and Ha, Ryun`s pursuing political system change via Cheon-gyeon theory. However, the phase was upside-down when those opposing the demolition of Sasa-jeon(寺社田) and revision of Dongbukmeon pressed Taejong and Ha, Ryun via Cheon-gyeon theory, backed by Taejo. Pro Taejo party backed by Taejo was obstacle toward stabilization of Taejong`s regime. In the second year of Taejong`s regime, his regime was stabilized after putting down Jo, Sa-eui`s revolution in Dongbukmeon area and getting approval of emperor Yeongrak of Ming dynasty. Suddenly, in the sixth year of Taejong`s regime, Ha, Ryun requested resignation according to the Cheon-gyeon theory and Taejong consequently tried to abdicate his throne. Dissatisfaction of military officers was the background of the request and trial. Taejong tried to abdicate because of the fact that Military officers dissatisfying to the demolition of Sasa-jeon and distribution of land criticized Ha, Ryun and Min, Mu-gu(閔無咎) who was Taejong`s cousin had a discontent regarding to the distribution of military power. Taejong used Cheon-gyeon theory as an excuse. The trial of abdication finally made a way to remove Min`s party. In the ninth year of Taejong`s era, Ha, Ryun`s trial of resignation and Taejong`s trial of abdication via Cheon-gyeon theory recurred. This time Taejong aimed to remove I, Mu(李茂) who was close to Min`s party and took a big role in Taejong`s enthronement. I, Mu had military power under his control for a long time and there was military party following him. Though Taejong removed I. Mu apparently for the reason of taking Min`s side, the main reason of his removal was the fact that I. Mu was the leader of a military party. Taejong accepted Ha, Ryun`s resignation request so as to make Ha, Ryun who was close to I, Mu irrelevant to the I. Mu`s removal. Taejong`s announcement to abdicate and Ha, Ryun`s resignation via Cheon-gyeon theory were highly political maneuver of political situation management aimed at removing military personnel who was possible threat to the regime. Though the maneuver seemed to be the enfeeblement or removal of anti-king party, Min`s party and retainer`s party and the reformation of political parties, it was indeed the removal of those having military under their control. The reason of Ha, Ryun`s taking active role in the removal was partly because of the fact that Ha, Ryun was confidant of Taejong. And the main reason was that Ha, Ryun didn`t bold military power.

협상력 열세를 극복하기 위한 전술로서의 거짓 우위행동

김태규 ( Tai Gyu Kim ),고예운 ( Yewoon Kauh ) 한국협상학회 2020 협상연구 Vol.23 No.2

대다수 실제 협상에서는 두 협상가 간 협상력이 비대칭적이다. 본 연구는 권력이란 객관적으로 결정되며 협상력이 강한 자에 비해 약한 자가 당연히 불리하다는 가정에 의문을 제기한다. 오히려 협상력에 있어 열세인 자가 거짓 우위행동을 하여 협상력이 강한 자가 인지하는 상대의 협상력이 실제보다 강해 보이도록 할 수 있다고 주장한다. 협상력은 협상가들 간 교류에 의해 생성되며 변화하는 것이므로, 이러한 전술이 협상력이 약한 자의 이익을 극대화 시키는 데 도움이 될 것이라고 제안한다. 그러나 협상력이 약한 측이 지배행동을 연출하여 해당 협상가가 자신에게 유리한 결과를 이끌어내는 상관관계가 속임의 대상이 되는 협상가의 통제소재에 따라 변화될 수 있다고 주장한다. The majority of actual negotiation settings are inevitably characterized by power asymmetry between two negotiators. This study questions the taken-for-granted assumption that since power is determined objectively, the powerless is always at a disadvantage to the powerful. Does the low-power negotiator always lose negotiation? We contend that these negotiators can use power tactics to deceive the powerholder’s perceived true power between parties. Because power is emergent through interactive dynamics, we suggest that this power manipulation will benefit the low-power negotiator. Thus, this study examines the following statements: 1) Faking dominance by exhibiting dominant behaviors help the low-power negotiator increase individual gain, 2) This positive relationship between faking dominance and individual outcome of the low-power negotiator is mediated by the change in perception of power sensed by the high-power negotiator. 3) However, this correlation weakens when the receiver of dominance tactics is internally oriented, rather than externally oriented on a continuum of locus of control.

A tale of two power transitions: Capabilities, satisfaction, and the will to power in the relations between the United Kingdom, the United States, and Imperial Germany

Carsten Rauch 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2017 International Area Studies Review Vol.20 No.3

Given the current redistributions in the global balance of power, power transition theory (PTT) has once again become an important intellectual factor. Many observers employing PTT are anxious about China’s ascendance and expect serious conflicts between Washington and Beijing in the coming years. Such skepticism, however, is problematic for three reasons. First, it is false theoretically; PTT does not claim that all rising powers will resort to war or that all power transitions will result in war. Second, it is false empirically; not all power transitions in history have resulted in Great Power wars. Third, it leads to flawed policy advice; if rising powers are not always dissatisfied and do not always challenge the status quo, then policies meant to oppose them might breed dangerous dissatisfaction in the first place. This article amends PTT by adding a variable, the “will to power” (WTP), that captures the willingness of rising powers to commit themselves to changing the status quo. Furthermore, it scrutinizes two historical power transition constellations (United Kingdom–United States and United Kingdom–Imperial Germany). In both cases the new variable is consistent with the outcome and particularly in the United Kingdom–United States case the WTP variable broadens our understanding by making it possible to see this relationship as “missed” or “eschewed” instead of as a peaceful power transition. Doing so extends the power transition dichotomy to a much more complex and realistic typology of power transition constellations.