IFRS 의무도입 후 이익 정보력이 재무분석가의 이익예측의 정확성에 미치는 영향

박종일 한국세무학회 2018 세무와 회계저널 Vol.19 No.3

This study empirically examines whether the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption, suggesting a association between the financial impact on earnings of the changes to IFRS from GAAP and financial analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy. In other words, this paper predict that the predictability of earnings in the post-IFRS periods are more informative than those of earnings in the pre-IFRS periods are associated with lower forecast errors and dispersion in analyst forecasts. Because I expect that the accuracy of analyst forecasts is related to the accuracy of financial statement-based forecasts and, therefore, that the improvement in analysts’ forecast accuracy around mandatory IFRS adoption is associated with the improvement in the accuracy of earnings on financial reports with firm-level. This relation reflects a fundamental mechanism that could explain the general change in analysts’ earnings forecast around mandatory IFRS adoption. As the relationship, this study also examines whether the adoption effect likely varies with firm-level incentives for auditor effort, foreign investor ownership, and accruals quality. Furthermore, this study partition the sample into market type and test whether the relationship earlier is different for KOSPI versus KOSDAQ listed firms. On the other hand, prior research examine the effects of mandatory IFRS adoption on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts (e.g., Nam 2015;Houqe et al. 2014;Miralles and Sanabria 2014;Horton et al. 2013;Cotter et al. 2012;Byard et al. 2011;Tan et al. 2011 etc.) Unlike previous studies, this paper differs in that I focus on the informational power of earnings related to analysts’ earnings forecasts errors between the pre-IFRS and post-IFRS periods. For instance, financial analysts are among the major and most intensive users of firms’ financial reports, as they are required to predict a firm’s fundamental value. Furthermore, analysts use firms’ previous financial reports, particularly earnings information, to predict future earnings. Therefore, intuitively, the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts is directly correlated to the quality of financial reports and the information environment(Horton et al. 2013;Houqe et al. 2014). Therefore, I test that the effects of changes in the informational power of earnings on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts after the mandatory IFRS adoption. Thus, this paper extend prior studies about properties of analyst forecasts in both the national GAAP and IFRS setting in the period before and after mandatory IFRS adoption. To test the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption, test variable in model to estimate the incremental effect of the informational power of earnings in the post-IFRS period is an interaction of IFRS and earnings (i.e., earnings per share deflated by the price, hereafter EL), where IFRS is an indicator variable that equals one for the post-IFRS period (2011-2015) and zero for the pre-IFRS period (2006-2010). The dependent variable is analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, in particular, this study capture the properties of analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy using absolute forecast errors, forecast errors (i.e., optimistic or pessimistic bias), and forecast dispersion, where smaller absolute forecast errors, smaller optimistic bias, and smaller forecast dispersion generally indicates a richer information environment. The sample covers KOSPI and KOSDAQ listed firms with available data in non-financial industries with fiscal year-end based on the dependent variable (test variable) from 2007 to 2016 (from 2006 to 2015). The final samples includes 7,116 firm-year observations with available data for analyst’ earnings forecast. The empirical findings of this study are following. First, after controlling for several factors that affect analyst’ forecast errors, I find that the coefficient on interaction term between IFRS and EL (IFRS*EL) is signi... 본 연구는 IFRS 의무도입 이후에 산출된 보고이익 정보력이 이전의 경우보다 재무분석가 측면에서 이익예측의 정확성을 더 향상시키는지를 규명하는데 있다. 또한 앞서의 관계가 감사인의 감사노력, 외부지배구조 및 재무보고의 질의 영향에 따라 차별적인지와 시장유형에 따라 다른지도 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 이익 수준과 IFRS 도입 전후기간의 교차항을 변수로 이용하여 재무분석가의 이익예측의 정확성, 편의 및 분산과의 관계를 알아보았다. 분석기간은 IFRS 의무도입전후의 각 5년간(2006년부터 2015년까지)이고, 표본은 유가증권 및 코스닥기업을 대상으로 7,116 개 기업/연 자료가 이용되었다. 실증결과는 첫째, IFRS 도입 이후에 산출된 보고이익을 이용한 재무분석가의 이익예측치의 정확성이 도입 이전과 비교할 때 더 증가되었고, 낙관적인 편의의 성향은 낮아졌으며, 이익예측의 분산은 줄어든 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 감사인의 감사노력(비정상 감사시간), 외부지배구조(외국인투자지분율) 및 재무보고의 질(발생액의 질) 수준에 따라 표본을 나누어 분석하더라도 모두 IFRS 도입이후가 이전보다 보고이익을 이용한 재무분석가들의 이익예측의 정확성이 더 높고, 낙관적인 편의의 성향은 낮아졌다. 마지막으로, 시장유형별로 표본을 나누어 분석하면 앞서의 결과들은 주로 코스닥기업보다는 유가증권기업일 때 더 뚜렷한 결과를 보였다. 이상을 종합하면, 본 연구는 IFRS 의무도입 이후가 이전과 비교해 재무분석가의 정보환경을 개선시켜 이익 정보력을 통한 재무분석가의 이익예측의 정확성이 증가되었음을 보여주었다는데 의미가 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 IFRS의 도입 효과를 분석한 관련연구에 새로운 증거를 제공하며, 또한IFRS 도입의 효과성에 관심이 있는 실무계, 회계기준제정기관, 규제당국 및 정책입안자에게 시사점을 제공한다. 아울러 재무분석가의 이익예측 정보는 자본시장의 투자자의 의사결정에도 적지 않은 영향을 미친다는 점을 감안할 때 본 연구는 투자자들에게도 유용한 정보를 제공한다.

경영자 예측정보의 연속적 공시행태에 관한 연구 -전기 예측정확성 및 재무분석가의 영향을 중심으로

김경혜 ( Kyung Hye Kim ),최경수 ( Kyong Soo Choi ),황문호 ( Mun Ho Hwang ) 한국회계학회 2013 회계학연구 Vol.38 No.3

본 연구는 경영자 예측정보의 연속적 공시행태를 분석한다. 구체적으로, 전기에 공시된 경영자 예측정보의 사후적 정확성 및 재무분석가와의 상호작용이 당기의 예측정보 공시에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 선행연구에 따르면, 경영자의 자발적인 예측정보 공시에는 다양한 경제적 유인이 수반되는 것으로 보고된다. 따라서 예측정보 공시에 따른 기대효익이 크게 예상되면 경영자는 적극적인 공시정책을 취할 것이며, 그렇지 않은 경우라면 소극적인 모습이 나타날 수 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 영향관계에 기초하여 과거에 발표한 경영자 예측정보의 신뢰성이 떨어질수록 당기의 예측정보 공시가능성이 낮아질 것으로 예상한다. 아울러 이러한 경영자의 연속적 공시행태에 있어 재무분석가들이 완충적인 역할을 수행할 것으로 예상한다. 경영자와 재무분석가는 예측정보를 생산하는 주요 주체로서 서로의 예측정보를 긴밀하게 모니터링한다. 따라서 경영자가 재무분석가의 예측정보를 통해서 자신의 예측정확성을 보완할 수 있다고 판단한다면 이를 적극 참조하여 공시에 반영할 것으로 기대되기 때문이다. 본 연구는 2002년부터 2008년까지 공정공시를 통해 발표된 경영자 영업이익 예측치를 대상으로 분석을 수행하였으며, 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 경영자의 전기 예측정확성이 낮을수록 당기 예측정보의 공시가능성이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 과거 예측정보의 신뢰성이 떨어질수록 당기의 공시에 따른 기대효과가 크지 않을 것으로 예상하여 소극적인 공시활동이 이루어지고 있음을 시사한다. 둘째, 재무분석가의 전기 예측정확성이 경영자보다 우수할수록, 경영자의 전기 예측정확성과 당기 예측정보 공시 간에 나타나는 양(+)의 관계는 유의하게 감소하였으며, 경영자의 예측정확성은 유의하게 개선되는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 경영자의 예측정보 공시 의사결정에 재무분석가 예측정보가 참조되고 있음을 나타내는 한편 재무분석가를 통해 경영자 예측정보의 신뢰성이 향상될 수 있음을 시사하는 결과이다. 본 연구는 경영자의 전기 예측정확성과 당기의 예측정보 공시간에 체계적인 관련성이 있음을 보여줌으로써 경영자의 자발적 공시유인 연구를 확장하고 있다. 아울러 경영자의 예측정보 공시에 재무분석가 예측정보가 유의하게 활용되고 있음을 보여줌으로써 경영자와 재무분석가간의 상호작용을 실증적으로 검증하였다는 점에서 차별적 공헌점이 있는 것으로 판단된다. We examine the manager`s consecutive reporting behavior about the voluntarily disclosed earnings forecast. Specifically, the primary objective of our study is to explore the effect of prior management earnings forecast accuracy and financial analysts on the current management earnings forecasts disclosure probability. First, we examine how the accuracy of prior management earnings forecast influences the disclosure probability of current management earnings forecast. In addition, we investigate how the number of analysts following and analysts` relative earnings forecast accuracy of prior year impact on the relation between prior management earnings forecast accuracy and current management earnings forecasts disclosure probability. In order to perform the empirical analysis, we hand collect management earnings forecasts for fiscal years 2002-2008 from Financial Supervisory Service`s Data Analysis, Retrieval and Transfer System (DART). Our specific results are given as follows. First, this research finds that as the accuracy of prior management earnings forecasts decreases the disclosure probability of current management earnings forecasts also decreases. Extant literatures demonstrate that various economic incentives have an effect on the disclosure policy of voluntarily disclosed earnings forecast. Therefore, if managers expect higher expected benefits of disclosing earnings forecast, he would be inclined to make an earnings forecast. On the other hand, when managers expect lower expected benefits of disclosing earnings forecast, he would not be inclined to make an earnings forecast. In this paper, based on the number of prior researches, we maintain that a relatively large errors of prior management earnings forecasts diminishes the expected benefits of current management earnings forecasts disclosure, which in turn generates a diminution of managers` incentives to provide current management earnings forecasts to the market participants. Therefore, the systematic positive (+) association between prior management earnings forecasts accuracy and current management earnings forecasts disclosure probability is consistent with our expectations. Second, when the analysts` prior relative earnings forecast accuracy are relatively high, the significant positive (+) association between prior management earnings forecasts accuracy and disclosure probability of current management earnings forecasts becomes small. On the contrary, the number of analysts` following of prior year does not affect the systematic positive (+) association between prior management earnings forecasts accuracy and disclosure probability of current management earnings forecasts. These findings indicate that since the manager`s specific ability to forecast a firm`s prospect increases in a relatively short period as the analysts` prior relative earnings forecast accuracy becomes higher, the manager`s incentives to stop management earnings forecast in the current period which is due to prior management earnings forecasts errors decreases. However, since the number of analysts` following of prior year is limited in improving manager`s specific ability to forecast a firm`s prospect, it does not influence the manager`s incentives to stop management earnings forecast in the current period which is due to prior management earnings forecasts errors. This paper, by demonstrating the systematic positive (+) association between prior management earnings forecasts accuracy and current management earnings forecasts disclosure probability, provides a new insight about the manager`s consecutive earnings forecasts disclosure policy. In particular, prior literatures which deal with management earnings forecasts concentrate mainly on the temporary forecasting behavior of managers. On the other hand, our research is discriminated by focusing on the sequential management earnings forecast strategies. As a result, our research might expand the scope of prior literatures which have dealt with manager`s voluntary disclosure policy Also, establishing the fact that the significant positive (+) association between prior management earnings forecasts accuracy and current management earnings forecasts disclosure probability decreases as the analysts` prior relative earnings forecast accuracy increases, this study documents the crucial impact of the analysts` on the manager`s consecutive earings forecasts behavior.

The Effect of Earnings Quality on Financial Analysts’ Dividend Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from Korea

남혜정 한국유통과학회 2019 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.6 No.4

Dividend policy is an important business decision and is considered a channel to communicate a firm’s performance to shareholders. Given the empirical findings that earnings quality significantly affects financial analysts’ forecasting activities, it is predicted that higher earnings quality would positively influence forecast accuracy. Specifically, it is expected that financial analysts would forecast dividends more accurately for firms with higher earning quality. Unlike the research on financial analysts’ earnings forecasts was heavily conducted, there is little study about financial analysts’ dividend forecasts. This paper examines the effect of earnings quality on financial analysts’ dividend forecast accuracy. We use a sample of South Korean firms for the period of 2011–2015 for multivariate regression. Earnings quality is measured by accruals quality and performance-adjusted discretionary accruals followed by prior studies. We first compare the accuracy between dividend forecasts and earnings forecasts using t-test and Wilcoxon singed-rank test. It is confirmed that financial analysts’ dividend forecasts are more accurate than earnings forecasts in Korea. We find that financial analysts’ dividend forecasts are more accurate for firms with higher earnings quality. We also find that the result is still valid after controlling for the accuracy of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts. This confirms that earnings quality positively affects financial analysts’ dividend forecasts.

발생액의 질과 재무분석가의 정보 환경이 이익예측 정확도에 미치는 영향

김지홍 ( Jee Hong Kim ),백혜원 ( Hye Won Paik ),고재민 ( Jai Min Goh ) 한국회계학회 2010 회계학연구 Vol.35 No.3

재무분석가들은 공적(public) 혹은 사적(private) 경로를 통하여 기업 분석을 위한 정보를 획득한다. 그리고 이러한 정보를 해석하는 과정에서 재무분석가들의 정보는 공통 정보(common information)와 고유 정보(idiosyncratic information)로 구분된다. 즉 재무분석가들이 공적 정보인 회계정보를 동일하게 해석하는 경우 공통 정보로 구분되지만, 재무분석가별로 서로 달리 해석하는 경우 고유 정보로 구분된다. Barron et al.(1998)은 재무분석가들이 이익예측시에 사용 가능한 모든 정보를 재무분석가의 정보환경이라 정의하고, 개별 재무분석가들이 공통 정보와 고유 정보에 각각 어느 정도의 비중을 두는지를 측정하기 위해, 공통 정보 활용도(BKLS consensus) 측정치를 제안하였다. 본 연구는 이들이 제안한 측정치를 이용하여, 발생액의 질에 따라 개별 재무분석가의 공통 정보 활용도에 차이가 있는지를 살펴보고, 개별 재무분석가들의 이러한 정보 활용 행태가 재무분석가의 이익예측 정확도에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 본 연구 결과 첫째, 우리나라 재무분석가들은 발생액의 질이 높을수록 공통 정보의 활용 비중을 낮추는 경향을 보였다. 이는 투자자들은 양질의 정보를 제공받을 경우 재무분석가에게 이와 차별화되는 정보를 요구한다는 Indjeijikian(1991)와 같이, 재무분석가들은 투자자들의 요구에 부응하고자 고유 정보의 활용 비중을 높이는 것으로 보인다. 둘째, 재무분석가들이 공통 정보 활용 비중을 높일수록 재무분석가의 이익예측 정확도는 낮아졌다. 이는 재무분석가들이 상당한 시간과 비용을 들여 고유 정보를 수집할 때 이익예측정확도가 평균적으로 높아진다는 사실을 의미한다. 셋째, 발생액의 질이 높은 기업의 경우, 재무분석가들이 공통 정보의 활용 비중을 높일수록 이익예측 정확도는 증가하였다. 이는 회계이익의 질이 높은 기업의 경우, 수집과 해석에 시간과 비용이 소모되지 않는 공통 정보를 활용하더라도 이익예측 정확도를 향상시킬 수 있다는 사실을 의미한다. 본 연구의 결과는 발생액의 질이 높을수록 재무분석가들은 공통 정보 대신 고유 정보를 더 많이 활용하고 있지만, 이와 같은 행태가 이익예측 정확도를 높이는 데에는 도움이 되지 않음을 알 수 있다. 따라서 재무분석가들은 발생액의 질이 높은 경우 공통 정보의 활용 비중을 높이는 것이 이익예측 정확도를 높이는 효율적인 방법이 될 수 있음을 제안한다. This study examines how accruals quality and individual analysts` information environments affect on the accuracy of analysts` earnings forecasts. Barron et al.(1998) reveal about the properties of analysts` information environments, developing BKLS consensus, which is the measure of information commonality individual analysts possess at the time they announce earnings forecasts. BKLS consensus assumes analysts` information can be represented as either common to all analysts or idiosyncratic to some individual analysts. Thus, by using BKLS consensus, we can measure the degree to which analysts base their forecasts on common information relative to idiosyncratic information. Francis et al.(2005) suggest that accruals quality is a proxy for the information risk associated with earnings because this measure tells investors about the mapping of accrual-based accounting earnings into cash flows. Relatively poor accruals quality weakens this mapping and, therefore, increases information risk. First, we investigate whether accruals quality is associated with BKLS consensus, the ratio of common-to-total information in the average analysts` forecasts. Second, we examine whether analysts` behavior to change the degree of information commonality depending on accruals quality contributes to improve the accuracy of earnings forecasts. We find that higher accruals quality decreases BKLS consensus, which shows lower information risk decreases investors` demands on common information which is publicly available to all investors. Accordingly, such investors` demands enable analysts to generate more idiosyncratic information rather than common information. Our results are consistent with Indjeijikian(1991), which find that higher level of disclosures afford analysts more opportunity to develop and convey more uniquely private information in their individual forecasts. Further, we provide evidence that the accuracy of analysts` earnings forecasts decreases as BKLS consensus increases, which suggests that high ratio of common-to-total information in the average analysts` forecasts decreases analysts` earnings forecast accuracy. However, the increased reliance on common information as for firms with high accruals quality contributes to increase analysts` earnings forecast accuracy. Therefore, these findings suggest that, as for firms with high accruals quality, analysts do not have to spend their time and economic resources to acquire or develop idiosyncratic information because using common information is helpful to increase earings forecast accuracy. In sum, while analysts tend to place more reliance on idiosyncratic information rather than common information as for firms with high accruals quality, we find that their efforts on generating idiosyncratic information do not contribute to increase the accuracy of earnings forecasts. Our study suggests that it is cost effective for analysts to evaluate firms` accruals quality before they work harder to exploit more idiosyncratic information to increase the accuracy of earnings forecasts. Our results are consistent with Lobo et al.(2006) which find that low accruals quality are followed by a great number of analysts in response to greater demand on analyst services and more effort by analysts when firms have high information risk. Prior studies find that corporate disclosures are important source for analysts in forming their earnings forecasts. Byard and Shaw(2002) find that analysts rely more heavily on publicly available financial data rather than privileged communication with management. Evidence on how analysts use accounting information is still one of the main issues among those interested in understanding analysts` role as information intermediaries. Our study contributes to better understand how analysts react to market participants by analyzing that earnings forecast accuracy differs according to not only information environments but also its interaction effect with the quality of accounting information.

Earnings Forecasts and Firm Characteristics in the Wholesale and Retail Industries

Seung-Yeon LIM(Seung-Yeon LIM) 한국유통과학회 2022 유통과학연구 Vol.20 No.12

Purpose: This study investigates the relationship between earnings forecasts estimated from a cross-sectional earnings forecast model and firm characteristics such as firm size, sales volatility, and earnings volatility. Research design, data and methodology: The association between earnings forecasts and the aforementioned firm characteristics is examined using 214 firm-year observations with analyst following and 848 firm-year observations without analyst following for the period of 2011-2019. I estimate future earnings using a cross-sectional earnings forecast model, and then compare these model-based earnings forecasts with analysts’ earnings forecasts in terms of forecast bias and forecast accuracy. The earnings forecast bias and accuracy are regressed on firm size, sales volatility, and earnings volatility. Results: For a sample with analyst following, I find that the model-based earnings forecasts are more accurate as the firm size is larger, whereas the analysts’ earnings forecasts are less biased and more accurate as the firm size is larger. However, for a sample without analyst following, I find that the model-based earnings forecasts are more pessimistic and less accurate as firms’ past earnings are more volatile. Conclusions: Although model-based earnings forecasts are useful for evaluating firms without analyst following, their accuracy depends on the firms’ earnings volatility.

회계이익의 질과 경영자 예측정보

신호영(Ho young shin),이정은(Jeong Eun Lee) 글로벌경영학회 2010 글로벌경영학회지 Vol.7 No.1

This paper examines the relation between earnings quality and management sales forecast. If there are highs and lows in the management forecast s accuracy and bias depending on the earnings quality, earning quality can be a useful information when users choose management sales forecast information that is of utility value. The earnings persistence is used as earnings quality proxy. Firms with high earnings persistence are easy to predict sales for future because high earnings persistence means large portion of business is repeated again and again. When a manager has difficulty in prediction and compute an inaccurate forecast, managers are possible to predict more optimistic(overestimate) forecasts. The findings from this study are summarized as follows:First, there is a positive relation between earnings quality and management sales forecast s accuracy. The higher earnings quality is, the more correct management sales forecast is. Second, there is a negative relation between earnings quality and management earnings forecast s bias. The higher earnings quality is, the less optimistic management earnings forecast is. So this paper suggests that people must give attention to sales forecast information with low earnings quality. 본 연구는 공정공시제도를 통해 제공되는 경영자 매출액 예측정보가 회계이익의 질에 따라 그 예측정확성 및 예측편의성에 차이가 있는지 분석하였다. 회계이익의 질의 측정치인 이익의 지속성이 높으면 과거의 기업 활동이 미래에도 반복될 것으로 기대되는 부분이 커서 추가적으로 예측해야 하는 부분이 감소하여 미래에 대한 예측이 수월해지므로 회계이익의 질이 높을수록 경영자의 예측정확성은 높을 것으로 예상된다. 또한 회계이익의 질이 낮아 경영자가 미래에 대한 전망을 수행하기 어려워 부정확한 예측정보를 산출하는 경우 경영자는 과소하게 예측하기 보다는 과대하게 예측할 가능성이 높다. 따라서 이익의 질이 높은 기업일수록 경영자는 낙관적인 예측공시(과대공시)를 하지 않을 것으로 예상된다. 공정공시제도가 시행된 2002년 11월 이후부터 2007년까지 매출액에 대한 전망을 보고한 기업을 대상으로 이익의 지속성을 회계이익의 질의 대용치로 사용하여 실증분석한 결과, 회계이익의 질이 높을수록 경영자 매출액 예측정보가 보다 정확하며, 덜 낙관적인 것으로 나타나 본 연구의 가설을 지지하였다. 이러한 결과는 회계이익의 질이라는 정보가 공정공시제도를 통해 제공되는 경영자 매출액 예측정보의 선 별적 이용에 유용하게 사용될 수 있으며, 경영자 매출액 예측정보를 이용할 때 회계이익의 질이 낮은 기업의 정보를 이용할 경우 좀 더 세심한 주의와 노력이 필요함을 의미한다.

신용평가와 이익조정이 재무분석가의 이익예측정확성에 미치는 영향

박범진 한국경영교육학회 2012 경영교육연구 Vol.27 No.4

This paper investigates whether credit ratings and earnings management have influences respectively on analyst decision making for forecasting future earnings and interactions between credit ratings and earnings management affects that also. KIS credit score measured by Korea Information Service(KIS) is used as the proxy of credit ratings and discretionary accruals estimated by adjusted Jones Model(1991) means that of earnings management. The empirical results in this study are summarized as follows. First, earnings forecast accuracy of companies which have higher credit score and discretionary accruals tend to lower than other companies. According to the previous researches, the lower credit ratings, the more future uncertainty and the more discretionary accruals, the lower reliability of accounting information. Accordingly, analyst can not forecast exactly future earning of companies under the above situation and I find that the above two determinants have the independent power of explanation on earnings forecast accuracy. Second, there is no statistical meaningful results in model to verify whether interactions between credit ratings and earnings management affects earnings forecast accuracy. It means that two variables with the same directional relation to earnings forecast accuracy have the different power of explanation on that. Additionally, I also can find the meaningful results in relation between the volatility of credit ratings and earnings forecast accuracy. In the future, I hope that many studies will clearly find not only the causal relationship between credit ratings and earnings management but also the one between the volatility of credit ratings and earnings forecast accuracy. 외환위기를 겪은 이후, 우리나라는 기업의 효율적 감시를 위한 많은 경제변화들이 이어졌다. 그 중에서도 회계정보의 신뢰성 제고와 합리적인 신용평가가 대두되었다. 본 연구에서는 정보의 중재자인 재무분석가가 이익을 예측함에 있어서 경영자의 이익조정과 신용평가로부터 각각 영향을 받는지를 검증하여 두 결정요인들이 독립적인설명력을 갖고 있는지 알아보고자 하였다. 또한 신용평가가 안 좋을수록 이익조정의 유인이 크기 때문에 이익조정이 이익예측정확성에 미치는 영향이 신용평가에 따라 달라지는지도 검증하였다. 연구기간은 2003년부터 2010년으로 이익예측치와 KIS 신용평점의 수집이 가능한 유가증권상장기업을 대상으로 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 이익조정의 대용치(proxy)인 재량적 발생액과 KIS 신용평점은 높을수록 재무분석가의 이익예측정확성이 떨어지는 통계적으로 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미치고 있었다. 이익조정의 증가가 회계정보의 신뢰성을 떨어뜨리며 신용평가가 상대적으로 하락하면 미래의 예측불확실성이 높아져 이익예측정확성도 떨어지는 것을 확인하였다. 둘째, 재량적 발생액이 이익예측정확성에 미치는 영향은 KIS 신용평점에 따라 달라지지 않았다. 단순히 KIS 신용평점을 투기와 투자등급으로 구분한 경우에는 이익예측정확성에 영향을 주었으나 재량적 발생액과 KIS 신용평점 간의 상호작용변수는 이익예측정확성에 유의한 영향을 주지 못했다. 이는 경영자의 이익조정이 신용평가와 관계없이 이익예측정확성을 떨어뜨리는 것이다. 따라서 재량적 발생액과 신용평가는 독립적으로 재무분석가의 이익예측정확성에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 상기의 유익한 결과에도 불구하고 다음과 같은 한계점이 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 재량적 발생액과 KIS 신용평점 간의 시차적 인과관계가 명확하지 않아서 동일시점의 것을 이용하였다. 재무분석가 입장에서는 두 결정요인 모두 과거의 정보일 뿐이라는 전제하에 모형을 설계하였다. 추후 재무분석가의 의사결정에 이익조정과 신용평가의 역할이 좀 더 명확하게 밝혀지길 기대한다.

이익지속성, 이익유연화 및 재무분석가의 이익 예측정확성

이세철 한국회계정보학회 2012 재무와회계정보저널 Vol.12 No.2

Prior researches find a positive association between earnings persistence and analysts’ forecast accuracy. The earnings persistence could be increased by earnings smoothing that reduce fluctuation of earnings. On the other hand, Tucker and Zarowin(2006) document empirically that an important effect of managers’ use of financial reporting discretion is to reveal more information about firms’ future earnings and cash flows. They explain that earnings smoothing improves earnings informativeness. Consistent with these views we investigate the effect of earnings persistence and earnings smoothing on the analysts’ forecast accuracy. Our results is as follow;First, analysts’ forecast accuracy increases as the earnings persistence increases. Second, analysts’ forecast accuracy doesn't have relation to earnings persistence considering the effect of earnings smoothing. Such results suggest that financial analysts consider managers’ use of financial reporting discretion as a factor for the increase in accounting information risk. Because analysts issue forecasts with varying accuracy for firms with different earnings contributes, investors should consider the earnings contributes of firms when they use analysts’ forecasts. Also the results in this study suggest that earnings smoothing should be incorporated in earnings forecast research. Our study is expected to provide additional information into the literatures about income smoothing. 선행연구에 의하면 회계이익의 질적 속성은 재무분석가의 이익 예측정확성과 관련하여 중요한 결정요인이 된다(Das et al. 1998;Bradshaw et al. 2001;Lim 2001). 특히, 정석우와 임태균(2005)은 이익지속성이 증가할수록 재무분석가의 예측정확성이 향상된다는 결과를 보임으로써 학문적 및 실무적으로 중요한 의미를 전달하고 있다. 한편, Turker and Zarowin(2006)은 경영자의 미래전망이 반영된 사적정보가 유연화된 이익과 함께 자본시장에 전달된다고 설명하고 있다. 이익유연화 수준이 높을수록 자본시장에 유입되는 경영자의 사적정보가 증가한다면 전문적인 정보분석 능력을 갖춘 재무분석가의 이익 예측정확성은 향상될 것이다. 이러한 논의에서 본 연구는 회계이익의 특성 가운데 이익지속성 및 이익유연화와 재무분석가 이익 예측정확성의 관련성을 분석한다. 분석결과, 이익유연화와 이익지속성을 동시에 고려할 경우 이익지속성은 재무분석가의 이익 예측정확성과 유의한 관계를 보이지 못하고 있다. 또한 이익유연화가 클수록 재무분석가의 이익 예측정확성은 유의하게 향상되는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 본 연구는 재부분석가의 이익 예측정확성에 영향을 줄 수 있는 이익의 질적 특성을 추가적으로 발견했다는 점에서 학문적, 실무적으로 공헌할 수 있을 것이다. 구체적으로, 이익지속성 또는 이익유연화에 관한 연구를 수행할 때 두 가지 속성간의 관계를 고려해야할 필요성을 보여주고 있다. 또한 실무적으로는 재무분석가가 정보를 분석하여 이익을 예측하는 데 있어서 이익지속성 뿐만 아니라 이익유연화로 인해 자본시장에 전달되는 추가적인 정보의 활용에도 주의를 기울일 필요가 있을 것이다.

주식시장에 따른 횡단면 이익모형과 이익예측치

임승연 한국중소기업학회 2022 中小企業硏究 Vol.44 No.4

This study examines and validates the earnings forecasts generated by two cross-sectional earnings models in KOSPI market and KOSDAQ market, respectively, which are recommended by Li and Mohanram(2014) for the period from 2011 to 2019. The earnings forecasts generated by cross-sectional earnings models in the KOSDAQ market are more validated than those in the KOSPI market in terms of forecast accuracy, forecast bias, and earnings response coefficient. In the analysis using another sample of firms with analysts’ earnings forecasts, we have similar results, where the earnings forecasts generated by cross-sectional earnings models in the KOSDAQ market are more validated than those in the KOSPI market in terms of forecast accuracy and forecast bias. There is no statistical difference between the earnings response coefficient in the KOSPI market and that in the KOSDAQ market. It is not because firms are listed in the different markets but rather due to the fact that firms with analysts’ earnings forecasts in the KOSDAQ market become similar to the firms in the KOSPI market which are bigger and more profitable than those without analysts’ earnings forecasts. 본 연구는 2011년부터 2019년까지 국내 기업을 대상으로 코스피 시장과 코스닥 시장으로 구분하고 각 시장별로 Li and Mohanram(2014)이 제시한 두 가지 횡단면 이익모형을 적용하여 기업의 이익예측치를 산출한 후 시장별 이익예측치의 타당성을 비교하였다. 실증분석 결과 횡단면 이익모형을 통해 산출된 이익예측치가 코스피 시장보다 코스닥 시장에서 이익예측 정확성이 더 높고 이익예측 오류가 낮아서 덜 낙관적으로 추정될 뿐만 아니라 이익반응계수 역시 더 높아서 시장의 이익 기대를 잘 반영하는 것으로 나타났다. 추가로 재무분석가의 이익예측치가 있는 표본을 대상으로 동일한 분석을 수행한 결과, 횡단면 이익모형을 통해 산출된 이익예측치가 코스피 시장보다 코스닥 시장에서 이익예측 정확성이 더 높고 이익예측 오류가 낮아서 덜 낙관적인 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 이익반응계수의 경우 시장 간의 차이를 확인할 수 없었다. 이는 코스닥 표본에 재무분석가의 이익예측치가 있는 상대적으로 규모가 크고 성과가 우수한 기업들만 포함되면서 코스피 기업들과 코스닥 기업들의 기업 속성이 상대적으로 동질해졌기 때문인 것으로 보인다.

이월결손금의 미래법인세효과에 관한 재무분석가의 해석

박종일(Jong Il Park),최원욱(Won Wook Choi),장금주(Geum Joo Jahng) 한국경영학회 2008 經營學硏究 Vol.37 No.2

We examine how analysts’ earnings forecast errors are affected by the income tax effect disclosure of net operation losses in financial statements. The current accounting standards regarding deferred income tax permit managers’ discretion when the managers disclose the future income tax effect of net operating losses as part of deferred tax assets. If the managers are confident that their firms can generate future earnings enough to offset the current net operating losses, they would disclose net operating losses as parts of deferred assets. If the managers are pessimistic, they would not disclose all the net operating losses as assets. Thus, the amount of net operating losses disclosed as deferred tax assets mirrors managers’ expectation of future earnings and it could be an important factor when analysts forecast the firms’ future earnings. As the amount of disclosure depends on manager’s discretion, net operating losses reported as parts of deferred tax assets have been investigated a means of earnings management in previous studies. Deferred tax disclosure in general has been tested in capital market studies if it would enhance the information usefulness of financial statements. Apart from most disclosure items in the financial statements, future income tax effect disclosure of net operating losses could be too complicated to be understood by both naive and sophisticated information users. Our study investigates the impact of net operating losses disclosure on both analysts earnings forecast errors and stock market valuation. If the managers’ expectation of future profitability is honestly disclosed in the net operating losses section of deferred tax assets and the analysts do not fail to comprehend the managers’ discretion correctly, the disclosure would enhance information usefulness of financial statements and reduce analysts’ earnings forecast errors. If the managers use the disclosure as a means for earnings management or analysts are not capable of comprehending the information, the disclosure would increase analysts’ earnings forecast errors. Although the disclosure might be useful for some analysts, it is not certain the disclosure could be appreciated or utilized by less sophisticated investors in the stock market. We argue that the income tax effect disclosure of net operating losses would contribute neither to reducing analysts’ earnings forecast error nor to enhancing the information usefulness of financial statements in the capital market. Our explanatory variables are alternative measures of deferred tax assets amount that is recognized due to net operating losses expected to be offset with future earnings. We use a dummy variable for the firms reporting net operating losses as parts of deferred tax assets, a level variable for the amount of net operating losses, and a change variable for the incremental amount of net operating losses from prior years. Our dependent variables are alternative measures of analysts’ forecast errors. The signed value of forecast errors is used to measure the bias in forecast errors while the absolute value of forecast errors is used to measure the accuracy of forecast errors. Our main hypothesis is that income tax effect disclosure of net operating losses (measured by a dummy, level or change variable) affects analysts’ earnings forecast errors (measured by bias or accuracy of errors). As an additional analysis, we test whether income tax effect disclosure of net operating losses has an impact on the stock price. Samples are selected from KIS-Value, Fn-Guide databases to represent non-financial, December fiscal-year-end firms that were listed in the Korean Stock Exchange from 1999 to 2004. Our findings suggest that (1) analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy declines for the firms that recognize the income tax effect of net operating losses, (2) analysts’ earnings forecast shows optimistic bias for the firms that reported the increase in deferred tax asset components of net operatin