고용탄력성 추정과 정책적 시사점: 비안정적 시계열 분석 방법론을 이용한 고찰

허재준 ( Jai Joon Hur ),고영우 ( Young Woo Koh ) 한국노동경제학회 2011 노동경제논집 Vol.34 No.3

Using methods for the analysis of non-stationary series and error correction models, this study estimates the elasticity of employment with regard to growth rate and its variability. The authors could not find any siginificant evidence that elasticity has reduced during the last 25 years, which implies that the slow-down of the employment growth did not result from a reduction of the elasticity but from the GDP growth slow-down. Therefore, policy efforts to enhance the capacity of job creation should be made in a manner that can extend the long-term grwoth potential.

고령자 임금노동시장의 구조와 정책적 시사

허재준(Jai-Joon Hur) 한국인구학회 1998 한국인구학 Vol.21 No.2

본고는 노동시장 현황에 기초하여 고령자 임금노동시장 분석틀을 제시한다. 그리고 그것이 정책차원에서 시사하는 바를 고령자 노동수요를 진작하는 정책, 노동공급자인 고령자의 의중임금을 낮출 수 있는 기반환경 조성, 그리고 임금노동 시장에서 노동공급을 줄일 수 있는 정책으로 나누어 검토한다. 제반 조세, 사회보험, 퇴직금 등에 적용되는 임금기준을 단순화하기 위한 관련 법령 정비, 제조업 위주로 되어 있는 유인제도들의 서비스업 고령자 고용으로의 확대, 퇴직 고령자를 옛 직장에서 계약직으로 재고용할 때 채용장려금이나 세제상의 유인 부여, 생애숙련형성 과정에서 전문성 강화를 위한 직업능력인증제도 확립 등은 고령자 노동 수요를 진작하는 정부차원의 정책 이니셔티브가 될 것이다. 고령자의 의중임금을 낮추기 위해서는 적절한 사회보장제도의 확충과 함께 주택가격의 안정화와 장기안정형 주택상품의 보급, 학자금 장기저리 융자제도, 혼수문화의 정비, 지역탁아시설의 확충 등이 요구된다. 창업지원, 자원봉사, 노후생활설계 원조, 시민운동 및 봉사활동 참여시의 명예심 고양 등으로 비임금노동자 시장이나 비경제활동에서 고령기의 활로를 모색할 수 있도록 유인하는 정책 사고도 필요하다. It is usually proposed that job security of old age workers is hampered by the structure of wage increasing with age. This paper sets forth a model to comprehend the characteristic of the old age workers' labor market and policy implications derived from it. In order to stimulate demand for old age workers, policy initiatives should be taken as follows : the wage criteria should be simplified which apply differently from one institution to other; incentives relatively favorable for employing old age workers' in manufacuring sector should be also given to service sectors; employment subsidy or other tax incentives should be given for labor contract after the retirement age; licensing and evaluation system for job ability should be introduced based on occupation & job analysis. To lower the reservation wage of workers, mortgage loan for house and long-term low interest loan for tuition fees should be developed together with stabilization of housing cost. Wedding culture which requires high expense should be amended. Above all, it is necessary to install reasonable social security system. Policy orientation should also pay attention to reduce labor supply of the old aged via aiding old age workers' firm opening and voluntary civil service together with developing various honor programs for members of civil corps.

우리나라 자금의 연령프리미엄 구조

허재준(Jai Joon Hur),전병유(Byung You Cheon) 한국노동경제학회 1998 노동경제논집 Vol.21 No.1

N/A

정보통신기술 투자와 숙련노동 수요변화

허재준 ( Jai Joon Hur ),서환주 ( Hwan Joo Seo ),이영수 ( Young Soo Lee ) 한국경제학회 2002 經濟學硏究 Vol.50 No.4

We examine the relationship between ICT intensity and demand for skilled workers by analyzing changes in employment and wage structure of twenty-five Korean industrial sectors over the 1993∼99 period. The results show that there has been little relationship between ICT diffusion and skill upgrading during the entire period of 1993∼99. Meanwhile, the positive relationship was found for the 1996∼99 period. Although ICT expenditure and investment have increased sharply since 1993, it appears that the ICT investment increased demand for skilled workers only since 1997.

프랑스의 고용정책 경험 : 평가와 쟁점들

허재준(Jai Joon HUR) 한국EU학회 1998 EU학연구 Vol.3 No.1

About 50.6% of French unemployed is receiving unemployment insurance benefit, 11.8% is covered by solidarity scheme and another million Job seekers are receiving the RMI (revenu minimun d`insertion). The number of people on annual base in various subsidy programs increased about two million in France between 1973 and 1996. French government`s initiative to activate labor market policies In 1990`s did not succeed in reducing unemployment but in slightly mitigating budget deficit. French experience of passive labor market policy suggests that the extent of protection should conform to the classical principle of income loss compensation of the unemployed than to the active principle and careful attention should be paid to the capability of the economy when designing the passive program. Job matching service is particularly useful when there are vacancies for special category of workers. Vocational training enhances the success probability of job finding and the adaptability on workplace. But the effectiveness of these two policies Is limited when there are few job opportunities. Wage subsidy programs are always liable to windfall effect and replacement effect. But subsidy is usually combined with other labor market policy programs, such as vocational training on workplace, to make them more effective.

통계자료의 코드화와 통계정보 서비스: 프랑스의 분기별 국민계정 TRACT의 경우

허재준(Jai - Joon Hur) 통계청 통계개발원 1996 통계연구 Vol.1 No.1

한국과 미국의 연장실업급여제도 비교를 통해 본 우리나라 특별연장급여제도의 개편 방향

허재준(Jai Joon Hur),김동헌(Dong Heon Kim) 한국사회정책학회 2011 한국사회정책 Vol.18 No.1

본 연구는 한국의 특별연장급여와 미국의 연장실업급여를 비교하고, 이러한 비교 분석을 바탕으로 우리나라 특별연장급여제도의 개편 방향을 제시한다. 우리나라와 미국의 실업급여는 유사하고 실업급여의 관대성도 비슷한 수준이지만, 미국의 연장실업급여는 우리나라의 특별연장급여에 비해 훨씬 관대하게 제도가 운영되고 있다. 구직급여에 비해 특별연장급여의 지급이 재취업 동기를 더 약화시킬 것이라는 주장은 경험적 근거를 두고 있지 않기에, 재취업을 촉진시키기 위해 특별연장급여의 지급액을 하향 조정하여 지급하는 정책보다는 장기실업에 처한 근로자의 생활안정을 도모하기 위해 특별연장급여를 구직급여와 동일하게 지급하는 정책을 시행하는 것이 타당하다. 우리나라의 실업급여 소진율은 미국과 비교하여 훨씬 높은 수준이다. 이는 구직급여 소정급여일수의 적정성에 대한 연구가 시급함을 보여준다. 특별연장급여의 촉발조건을 살펴보면 제도 운영상의 별다른 문제가 없어 보이지만, 최근의 노동시장 현실을 반영하여 조만간 촉발조건의 미시적 조정이 필요하다고 본다. 특별연장급여에 소요되는 비용은 전액 혹은 절반 정도 정부에서 부담하는 방식을 채택하는 것이 바람직하다고 판단되기에, 향후 발생할 가능성이 있는 고용위기에 대응하여 특별연장급여 재원조달방식에 대한 노사정의 협의가 요구된다. In this paper we compare extended unemployment benefits programs between Korea and the USA with a comparative perspective and, based on the comparative analysis, suggest institutional reform of Korea`s extended unemployment benefits in the employment insurance system. Although Korea and the USA have similar unemployment benefits systems, institutional arrangements of extended unemployment benefits are much more generous in the USA than in Korea. Based on the U.S. empirical studies and policy experiences of extended unemployment benefits, we suggest the extended benefit amount should be the same as the regular benefit amount to support the livelihood of the long-term unemployed. Our study shows that Korea`s exhaustion rates are much higher than those of the USA. This implies that it is imperative to review general adequacy of regular benefit duration and the duration of extended benefits. Current triggers used to activate extended benefits need some fine-tuning in the near future to adapt to the changing labor market situations. Finally we argue that extended benefits should be financed by the general tax or at least 50 percent of the expenditure costs shared by the government.

프랑스 사회보장제도 개혁의 내용과 평가

허재준 (Jai Joon Hur) 한국EU학회 1997 EU학연구 Vol.2 No.2

In 1996, French government reformed the social security system. This reform is distinguished from previous ones as it includes not only immediate measures for deficit reduction but also structral reconstruction. This paper first overviews French economic indicators which necessitated the reform : unemployment, interest rate, wage structure, social benefit and deficit of social security account. Then it presents the details of the reform : medical service, pensions, etc. Even if French government pretends that the reform will not only improve social security account but stimulate creation of employment, more emphasis seems to be laid on deficit reduction than on unemployment decrease. Such a policy orientation comes from the French social consensus which would not abandon the minima sociaux already established. It still remains, therefore, as a big challenge for the new government to take necessary measures, without damaging the solidnrite`, for overcoming unemployment.

우리나라 고용보험의 적정 요율

허재준(Jai Joon Hur),김동헌(Dong Heon Kim) 한국사회보장학회 2002 사회보장연구 Vol.18 No.1

In this paper we introduce an index called the reserve ratio multiple to test employment insurance fund adequacy and derive adequate levels of contribution rates, considering developmental stages of the employment insurance system. The reserve ration multiple is a quotient that is computed from two ratios. The denominator is benefit outlays as a percentage of total covered payrolls in the highest cost year, while the numerator is total net reserves at the end of the current year expressed as a percentage of total covered payrolls for the year. Considering currently available data and our specific circumstances, we suggest that reserve ratio multiples of 1.0 and 1.5 (where the high-cost year is 1999) are adequate for the Employment Stabilization Program and the Job Skill Development Program, respectively. The adequate multiple for Unemployment Benefits is 2.1. Based on long-term financial forecasts and simulation analysis of fund adequacy, it is estimated that the contribution rate for the Employment Stabilization Program needs to be reduced by 0.2 percentage point, while the contribution rate for the Job Skill Development Program needs to be raised by 0.15 percentage point. Even if maternity and parental leave benefits and the extension of coverage to daily workers would increase benefit payments, Unemployment Benefits do not need rate adjustment unless the employment insurance system introduces unemployment benefits for those who voluntarily leave their jobs. However, if those who voluntarily leave their jobs are entitled to receive unemployment benefits after a certain period of unemployment, it is necessary to adjust the contribution rate upward by 0.2 percentage point.

ICT확산, 기업조직, 제품차별화, 숙련노동의 보완관계

서환주 ( Hwan Joo Seo ),허재준 ( Jai Joon Hur ),이영수 ( Young Soo Lee ) 한국경제학회 2004 經濟學硏究 Vol.52 No.2