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총괄평가 방법론을 활용한 한반도 군사력 균형분석 - 남·북한 해군력(수상함)을 중심으로 -
한정경,Han, Jung-kyeong 한국해양전략연구소 2023 해양안보 Vol.7 No.1
Amidst the ongoing instability and military tensions between North and South Korea, it is essential for us to comprehend and assess North Korea's military capabilities, while preparing for potential contingencies through military reinforcement. However, to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the military balance on the Korean Peninsula, it is imperative to move beyond simplistic quantitative comparisons of combat capabilities and embrace a broader perspective, which includes qualitative comparisons of military strength, operational capabilities, and a nation's ability to wage war. To address this need, this study employs the method of "Net Assessment" to evaluate the relative combat power of South and North Korean conventional naval forces, with a particular focus on surface combatants. This evaluation involves both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of military assets (personnel and equipment) and intangible factors (naval strategies, geography, etc.). By conducting a holistic assessment, the research aims to identify and analyze strategic asymmetries that may exist between the two navies. 남북한의 불안정한 군사적 갈등과 충돌이 계속되고 있는 지금 우리에게는 북한의 군사력을 파악하고 비교 평가하며, 부족한 부분에 대해 군사력 증강을 통해 대비해나가는 과정이 반드시 필요하다. 하지만 한반도의 군사균형(또는 군사비교)분석을 위해서는 단순한 콩알세기 식의 전투력에 대한 양적비교 뿐만 아니라 전투력의 질적비교, 그리고 군사작전 수행능력, 국가의 전쟁수행능력과 같은 넓은 범위까지도 포함할 수 있는 보다 넓은 시각에서의 군사력 평가가 이루어져야 한다. 이에 본 연구는 총괄평가(Net Assessment) 방법을 활용하여 남북한 재래식 군사력 가운데서도 수상함 중심의 해군력을 유형적 군사력(병력·장비)의 양적/질적 비교와 무형의 변수(해양/해군전략, 지리 등) 의 비교를 통해 상대적 전투력을 종합 비교하고, 전략적 비대칭 요소를 식별 및 분석하고자 한다.
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배학영,한정경 한국국방연구원 2024 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.36 No.1
What will be the pattern of China’s maritime intervention by the year 2049, and what capabilities will be necessary for such an intervention? This paper aims to propose a force development strategy based on an evaluation of our naval capabilities in comparison to China’s by 2049. It intends to address the gap in force development studies that have predominantly focused on threats from the North’s nuclear and conventional armed conflict, as well as on defense innovation within the framework of Defense Innovation 4.0. Two methodologies will be employed to forecast the enemy’s future capabilities. The first is scenario planning, which involves assuming a specific future in detail and predicting patterns of engagement using probable assumptions among various possible futures. This approach allows for the depiction of a detailed future when writing scenarios. The second methodology is static comparative analysis, which involves a quantitative comparison to identify capabilities we need to develop. Despite its limitation in symmetrical comparison and not accounting for the multi-dimensional complexity of battle, this method provides a relatively straightforward way to infer future warfare capabilities. The value of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it establishes a benchmark for understanding the level and pattern of China’s potential maritime intervention in the Korean Peninsula by 2049. Secondly, it serves as a foundational logic for future force development planning. Thirdly, it offers insights into the necessary force adjustments in response to future engagements with China that could significantly alter the strategic balance to our disadvantage.
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