Indeterminacy and Business Fluctuations Under Partial Capital Mobility

전종규 대외경제정책연구원 2008 East Asian Economic Review Vol.12 No.2

The paper examines a modified real business cycle model of a small open economy such as the Korean economy. The model economy is assumed to produce output with two types of capital: traded capital and non-traded capital. Domestic individuals can borrow from the world capital market only by using traded capital as collateral, and investment in non-traded capital must be financed by domestic savings. It implies that the capital mobility is partial rather than perfect although domestic residents have free access to the world capital market. By incorporating externalities into the production technology, the model economy is able to generate dynamic path of equilibrium time series solely driven by non-fundamental shocks such as animal spirits of investors or self-fulfilling expectations if the ratio of traded capital to total capital is sufficiently high. The paper shows that the second moment properties of the Korean aggregate data could be reproduced in a modified real business cycle framework where fluctuations are driven only by non-fundamental shocks, not by the disturbances to economic fundamentals such as technology. This requires a high value of traded capital relative to total capital, which means that the domestic capital market must be highly integrated with the world capital market. It implies that there exists some critical level of capital mobility beyond which the business cycles of an open economy becomes highly vulnerable to non-fundamental shocks such as self-fulfilling expectations.

수도권 광역상수도 5단계 건설사업

전종규 한국수자원학회 1996 물과 미래(한국수자원학회지) Vol.29 No.2

주요 지역별 경제전망

전종규,Jeon, Jong-Gyu 한국정보통신집흥협회 2003 정보화사회 Vol.165 No.-

도심하천 CSOs 처리를 위한 고속여과공정의 처리효율에 관한 연구

전종규,강용태,송근관,한상윤,원태준,조용현 한국수처리학회 2008 한국수처리학회지 Vol.16 No.1

A pollutant can be divided into a point source and non-point source from the discharged pattern. In the case of point source because it is clear to detect its causing source and find out its flowing route, it is easy to estimate pollutant load so, over the 90% was treated. Otherwise in the case of non-point source, it is difficult to find out the source and its flowing route because it is linked with rainfall's characteristics and topographical condition. And the study about non-point pollutant treatment in Korea is insufficience so most of non-point pollutants are discharged without proper treatment. So in this study selected Eum-Goong basin as study site located in downstream of Nak-Dong river and conducted a study to reveal the treatment efficiency of high rate filtration system treating non-point pollutant including industrial wastewater occurred in urban area. The study to find out the performance of high-rate filter without coagulant-flocculant was conducted. In the condition of turbidity in raw water and flow rate was each 150NTU, 500m/day, mean removal efficiency of SS, CODcr, in 10 and 60 minute filter effluent was each 82.8 and 77.9, 81.8 and 71.7%. When operating with 150NTU and 1200m/day, mean removal efficiency of SS, CODcr, in 10 and 60 minute filter effluent was each 69.5 and 51.6, 73.2 and 22.2%. Flow rate in 500m/day was more efficacious than 1200m/day and this result was same with condition that operating on 300NTU.

Polymerization via hydroboration from borazine derivatives and cyclotrivinylsilazane as a new class of polymer precursor for Si-C-B-N ceramics

전종규,Quoc Dat Nghiem,김동표 한국고분자학회 2002 한국고분자학회 학술대회 연구논문 초록집 Vol.2002 No.10

Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization A reappraisal using value-added trade data

전종규 한국무역학회 2018 Journal of Korea trade Vol.22 No.1

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade integration and intra-regional business cycle synchronization using value-added trade data. Most empirical studies analyzing the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization use gross trade data which suffer from double-counting. Double-counting distorts the empirical results on the estimated relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization. This paper explores the relationship using value-added trade data to be free from distortions caused by double-counting. Design/methodology/approach – Gross trade data on exports and imports are decomposed into sub-categories following Koopman et al. (2014). Then, value-added data on exports and imports without double-counted terms are built to measure value-added bilateral trade intensity and value-added intra-industry trade intensity. Using this value-added trade intensities, the author run panel regressions for Europe and East Asian countries to examine how value-added trade intensities are correlated with output co-movements. Findings – The paper finds that for European countries, the positive association between trade and business cycle co-movements is more evidently observed and the role of intra-industry trade increasing the business cycle synchronization is also more clearly revealed by value-added trade data. On the other hand, for East Asian countries, value-added trade data reveal that it is very uncertain whether increased trade contributes to stronger synchronization of business cycles and intra-industry trade is truly the major factor which deepens the business cycle co-movements. Research limitations/implications – First, the paper examines the relationship only by running static panel regression. There is a need to employ different methodologies such as instrumental variable regression or dynamic panel regression. Second, financial integration and policy coordination within a region are also other relevant factors which influence the intra-regional business cycle synchronization. There is a need to examine the relationship using value-added trade data with the variables measuring the degree of financial integration and policy coordination. Third, value-added trade data used in this paper has limited coverage of East Asian countries. There is also a need to extend the value-added data set to cover more countries and industries. Originality/value – Most empirical literature studying the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization rely on gross trade data. This paper would be the first attempt to study the relationship using value-added trade data. Duval et al. (2014) also use value-added data, but their value-added data are not supported by a solid accounting framework which decomposes a country’s gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double-counted terms. Value-added data in this paper computed based on Koopman et al. (2014) are the total domestic value exports that are ultimately consumed abroad via final and intermediate exports. The author believes that value-added data in this paper are most relevant in estimating the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization.

분말야금법을 활용한 나노 하이브리드 구조 철-망간계 분말야금재 제조

전종규,김정준,최현주,Jeon, Jonggyu,Kim, Jungjoon,Choi, Hyunjoo 한국분말야금학회 2020 한국분말재료학회지 (KPMI) Vol.27 No.3

The automotive industry has focused on the development of metallic materials with high specific strength, which can meet both fuel economy and safety goals. Here, a new class of ultrafine-grained high-Mn steels containing nano-scale oxides is developed using powder metallurgy. First, high-energy mechanical milling is performed to dissolve alloying elements in Fe and reduce the grain size to the nanometer regime. Second, the ball-milled powder is consolidated using spark plasma sintering. During spark plasma sintering, nanoscale manganese oxides are generated in Fe-15Mn steels, while other nanoscale oxides (e.g., aluminum, silicon, titanium) are produced in Fe-15Mn-3Al-3Si and Fe-15Mn-3Ti steels. Finally, the phases and resulting hardness of a variety of high-Mn steels are compared. As a result, the sintered pallets exhibit superior hardness when elements with higher oxygen affinity are added; these elements attract oxygen from Mn and form nanoscale oxides that can greatly improve the strength of high-Mn steels.

Preparation of Polymeric Precursor for B-C-N Ceramics via Hydroboration of Borazine and B-triethynyl, N-trimethyl Borazine

전종규,Yuko Uchimaru,김동표 한국고분자학회 2002 한국고분자학회 학술대회 연구논문 초록집 Vol.2002 No.10

Equilibrium Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy with Traded and Non-traded Capital

全鍾奎 대외경제정책연구원 2007 East Asian Economic Review Vol.11 No.2

This paper presents the necessary conditions for equilibrium indeterminacy in a small open economy under partial capital mobility. In order to have meaningful transitional dynamics of consumption and capital, I assume that the economy uses two kinds of capital as inputs - traded capital and non-traded capital - and households can borrow from foreigners only with traded capital as collateral. Non-traded capital must be accumulated out of domestic savings, even with the free access to the world capital market. Benabib and Farmer (1994) argue that a representative agent model such as the standard RBC model requires a high degree of increasing returns to scale to cause indeterminacy in equilibrium path. Unlike the closed economy model of Benabib and Farmer (1994), equilibrium indeterminacy is shown to arise with a much weaker degree of increasing returns to scale in an open economy environment. This result implies that opening the capital market makes the small economy more vulnerable to the ‘animal spirits’ of investors. The fact that only the net returns to traded capital equal the world interest rate at all points in time plays an important role in determining the results.

무역과 금융을 통하여 본 한미경제관계: 주요 이슈와 함의

전종규 신아시아연구소 2005 신아세아 Vol.12 No.2