중국의 원유 확보전략이 원유시장에 미치는 영향과 시사점

이은명,도현재 에너지경제연구원 2004 연구보고서 Vol.2004 No.12

1. 연구필요성 및 목적 중국은 급속한 경제성장에 따른 석유수요의 증가로 1996년 원유 순수입국가로 전환된 이래 매년 원유의 수입규모를 확대하여 왔으며, 향후에도 석유수요의 지속적인 증가와 국내 원유공급의 정체로 인해 외국으로부터의 원유확보 소요량이 빠르게 확대될 전망이다. 소요 원유를 확보하기 위한 중국의 전략은 세계원유시장의 구조에 큰 변화를 가져올 것으로 예상되며, 또한 중국의 원유확보전략은 동아시아 국가들의 에너지안보는 물론 경제적 · 국가적 안보 문제와도 밀접하게 연계되어 있다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 중국의 원유수요 증가와 원유확보 전략이 원유시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 한편, 동아시아 지역의 에너지 안보에 주는 시사점을 제시하는데 그 목적이 있다. 2. 내용 요약 중국의 석유 · 가스 부문 정책은 석유수요 충족을 위한 안정적인 공급기반 구축, 천연가스의 생산 · 이용 확대를 위한 인프라 확충, 석유비축제도 도입 및 WTO 가입에 대비한 대외경쟁력 확보로 요약할 수 있다. 중국의 석유 확인매장량은 2003년 말 현재 237억 배럴이며, 석유생산의 약 90% 가까이는 육상 유전에서 생산되고 있다. 동북부의 대형유전들은 유전 성숙화로 생산량이 감소세를 보이고 있는 반면, 서부지역 및 해양 유전의 생산량은 증가세를 보이고 있다. 중국의 원유 생산은 1990년대 후반 이후 완만한 증가세 및 정체 상태를 보이고 있으며, 최근 10년간 연평균증가율은 1.6%에 그쳤다. 반면, 석유수요는 산업발전과 개인소득수준의 향상으로 높은 성장세를 보이며 2002년에는 미국에 이어 세계 2위의 석유 소비국으로 부상하였다. 최근 10년간 연평균증가율은 7.5%에 달했으며 2003년에는 높은 경제성장으로 전년 대비 11.2%의 증가율을 기록하였다. 이와 같은 석유 생산량 증가세의 둔화와 소비량의 높은 증가세에 따라, 중국은 1993년에 석유 순수입국으로 바뀌었다. 원유수입의 중동의존도는 1995년 이전까지는 40% 내외의 수준을 유지하다가, 1996년에 62%로서 최고 수준을 기록한 이후 50%를 약간 웃도는 수준을 유지하고 있다. 세계 주요 연구기관들은 물론 중국도 2020년까지 중국 경제는 고도성장을 구가할 것으로 전망하고 있다. 이는 중국이 고도성장을 통하여 세계 최대의 경제대국이 될 수 있음을 시사하는 것이다. 주요연구기관의 전망치를 종합하면, 세계 전체의 석유 수요는 2000~2020년 기간 중 연평균 1.5%~1.9%의 증가율을 보여, 2000년의 75.5백만 b/d에서 2010년에는 83~91백만b/d, 2020년에는 102~110백만b/d에 이를 것으로 전망하고 있다. 중국의 석유 수요는 전망기간 중 연평균 3.8%~4.4%씩 증가하여 2020년에는 10.6~11.9백만b/d에 이르고, 수요점유율도 10%를 상회하게 될 것으로 전망된다. 세계 전체의 석유 생산량은 2000~2020년 기간 중 연평균 1.4%~1.7%의 증가율을 보여, 2000년의 74.7백만b/d에서 2020년에는 98~105백만b/d에 이를 것으로 전망하고 있다. OPEC의 생산량은 2010년 이후 크게 증가하여, 점유율이 2010년의 40%에서 2020년에는 50% 가까운 수준으로 상승할 것이다. 중국의 석유 생산량은 정체 내지는 하락하여, 2020년에는 2.7~3.5백만b/d에 달하고, 이에 따라 석유 순수입 소요량은 7.5~7.9백만b/d로 크게 높아져 원유시장에 미치는 영향이 크게 확대될 것으로 판단된다. 향후 지속적인 경제성장에 따른 석유 수입의존도의 증대는 중국의 에너지안보 상의 가장 큰 문제점으로 지적되고 이다. 이에 따라 중국은 석유자원의 안정적 확보를 위한 다각적인 전략을 마련하여 추진하고 있다. 중국이 추진하고 정책은, △국내 석유자원의 적극적인 개발 △해외석유자원의 개발을 위한 투자 확대 △공급의 안정성 확보 △석유비축능력의 증대 ☆자원외교의 강화 등으로 요약할 수 있다. 원유확보를 위한 중국의 공격적인 행보는 세계 원유시장의 물리적 수급상황을 압박하여 유가의 장기적인 1. Research Purpose Since China has been transformed into a net crude oil importer in 1996 due to the rapid increase in its demand for oil on account of its rapid economic growth, its crude oil imports have been expanding every year. China's oil production will remain relatively stagnant in the future, while its domestic oil demand will increase substantially, rendering it more heavily dependant on foreign oil. The Chinese strategy to secure its oil requirements is expected to bring significant changes in the structure of the world's oil market. Its oil security strategy is closely related to the energy security of East Asian countries and to their economic and national security. This study aims to analyze the effects of the increase in Chinese oil demand and of China's oil security strategy on the oil market and to propose suggestions for improving the energy security of East Asian countries. 2. Summary The oil and gas policy in China can be summarized as follows. - Construction of consistent supply base for meeting oil demand, - Expansion of infrastructure to produce and utilize natural gas, - Introduction of oil stockpiling system, - Strengthening of competitiveness in preparation for China's membership in the World Trade Organization(WTO) The proved reserves of oil in China was 23.7 billion barrels at the end of 2003, and about 90% of the country's oil reserves is being produced from onshore oil fields. While oil production in a large oil field in the northeastern area appears to be decreasing due to the oil field's maturity, oil production in the western area and in offshore fields is adversely increasing. Oil production in China has been slowly increasing and stabilizing since the late 1990's, and, in the past 10 years, has increased at an annual average rate of 1.6%. Meanwhile, the country's oil demand is increasing due to industrial development and rise in individual incomes. In fact, China ranked second in oil consumption worldwide in 2002, after the U.S. The annual average rate of increase in its oil consumption for the past 10 years was 7.5%, and in 2003, was recorded at 11.2% due to the country's strong economic growth. Since its oil production is sluggish and its oil consumption is rapidly increasing, it became a net oil importer in 1993. Before 1995, China was dependent on the Middle East for 40% or so of its oil imports and reached its highest level at 62% in 1996, after which it has kept its oil imports from the Middle East at above 50%. Chinese government and other major research institutions are expecting that the Chinese economy will achieve a high growth rate by 2020. This means that China's economy is expected to be the strongest in the world by then. Considering the expectation from the major research institutions, world oil demand appears to be increasing by an annual average of 1.5 to 1.9% from 2000 to 2020, from 75.5 million b/d in 2000 to an expected 83 to 91 million b/d in 2010 and an expected 102 to 110 million b/d in 2020. Likewise, Chinese oil demand appears to be increasing by an annual average of 3.8 to 4.4% from 2000 to 2020, to an expected 10.6 to 11.9 million b/d (more than 10% demand share) in 2020. Worldwide oil production appears to be increasing by an annual average of 1.4 to1.7% from 2000 to 2020, from 74.7 million b/d in 2000 to an expected 98 to 105 million b/d in 2020. The oil production of OPEC is expected to significantly increase from 2010, from a 40% share of the global market in 2010 to an almost 50% share in 2020. Likewise, Chinese oil production appears to be constant or decreasing, to 2.7 to 3.5 million b/d in 2020. Thereby, China's impact on the oil market is expected to be stronger due to the increase in the quantity of its oil imports by up to 7.5 to 7.9 million b/d. With China's consistent economic growth, the increase in its dependence on foreign oil is said to pose a significant problem to the country in terms of its energy

사회복지와 호스피탤러티

이은명 영성과 사회복지학회 2013 영성과 사회복지학회 학술대회 Vol.2013 No.3

The Association of Increased Lung Resistance Protein Expression with Acquired Etoposide Resistance in Human H460 Lung Cancer Cell Lines

이은명,임수정 대한약학회 2006 Archives of Pharmacal Research Vol.29 No.11

Chemoresistance remains the major obstacle to successful therapy of cancer. In order to understand the mechanism of multidrug resistance (MDR) that is frequently observed in lung cancer patients, here we studied the contribution of MDR-related proteins by establishing lung cancer cell lines with acquired resistance against etoposide. We found that human H460 lung cancer cells responded to etoposide more sensitively than A549 cells. Among MDR-related proteins, the expression of p-glycoprotein (Pgp) and lung resistance protein (LRP) were much higher in A549 cells compared with that in H460 cells. When we established H460-R1 and -R2 cell lines by progressive exposure of H460 cells to increasing doses of etoposide, the response against etoposide as well as doxorubicin was greatly reduced in R1 and R2 cells, suggesting MDR induction. Induction of MDR was not accompanied by a decrease in the intracellular accumulation of etoposide and the expression of MDR-related proteins that function as drug efflux pumps such as Pgp and MRP1 was not changed. We found that the acquired resistance paralleled an increased expression of LRP in H460 cells. Taken together, our data suggest the implicative role of LRP in mediating MDR in lung cancer.

Awareness of and Attitude Toward Breast Cancer Screening Influences the Rate of Breast Cancer Screening in Korean American Women in the U.S.

이은명 사단법인 인문사회과학기술융합학회 2018 예술인문사회융합멀티미디어논문지 Vol.8 No.12

The most common cancer in Asian American women is breast cancer. Early detection through mammography is crucial as it increases treatment options and saves lives; however, many studies described the lower breast cancer screening rates in Asian American women compared to other population in America. The purpose of this review was to synthesize literature on how awareness of and attitudes toward breast cancer screening influence the rate of breast cancer screening in Korean American women in the U.S. The analysis of the reviewed literature focused on the influence that awareness of and attitudes toward breast cancer screening have on the rate of breast cancer screening in Korean American women by reviewing 16 studies in the U.S.A. This study shown the lower breast cancer screening rates in Korean American women in the U.S.A. Specifically, diverse variables such as sociodemographic factors, level of acculturation, health beliefs, and cultural beliefs had a statistically significant association with the utilization of breast cancer screening. In addition, knowledge towards breast cancer screening found the notable factor to affect obtaining breast cancer screening as a strong predictor. Furthermore, education had a significantly positive correlation with breast cancer screening behavior. From the findings of these studies, implementing multifaceted approach using appropriate educational programs based on cultural sensitivity is essential to decrease barriers and improve the awareness of the importance of mammogram screening.

배출권 거재제를 활용한 전력산업의 온실가스 저감방안

이은명,이기훈 에너지경제연구원 1999 민간출연연구보고서 Vol.1999 No.1

냉방방식별 경제적 보급활성화 방안

이은명 대한기계설비건설협회 2000 기계설비 Vol.123 No.-

바닷가에서

이은명 고요아침 2015 열린시학 Vol.20 No.1

러시아 천연가스 도입의 공급안정성 확보방안

이은명,서정규,이성규 에너지경제연구원 2009 에너지경제연구원 정책연구자료 Vol.2009 No.12

Role of p21CIP1 as a determinant of SC-560 response in human HCT116 colon carcinoma cells

이은명,최문경,한인옥,임수정 생화학분자생물학회 2006 Experimental and molecular medicine Vol.38 No.3

SC-560, a strucutral analogue of celecoxib, induces growth inhibition in a wide range of human cancer cells in a cyclooxygenase (COX)-independent man-ner. Since SC-560 suppresses the growth of cancer cells mainly by inducing cell cycle arrest, we sought to examine the role of p21CIP1, a cell cycle regulator protein, in the cellular response against SC-560 by using p21+/+ and p21-/- isogenic HCT116 colon car-cinoma cells. In HCT116 (p21+/+) cells, SC-560 dose-dependently induced growth inhibition and cell cycle arrest at the G1 phase without significant apoptosis induction. SC-560-induced cell cycle arrest was accompanied by upregulation of p21CIP1. However, the extent of SC-560-induced accumula-tion at the G1 phase was approximately equal in the p21+/+ and the p21-/- cells. Nonetheless, the growth inhibition by SC-560 was increased in p21-/- cells than p21+/+cells. SC-560-induced reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation did not differ between p21+/+and p21-/- cells but the subsequent activaton of apoptotic caspase cascade was more pronounced in p21-/- cells compared with p21+/+ cells. These results suggest that p21CIP1 blocks the SC-560-induced apoptotic response of HCT116 cells. SC-560 combined with other therapy that can block p21 CIP1 expression or function may contribute to the effective treatment of colon cancer.

국가에너지 수급에서 가스냉방의 역할

이은명(Eunmyung Lee) 대한설비공학회 2015 대한설비공학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2015 No.6