지구온난화에 따른 지역규모 대기질 영향평가 (1)

문난경,홍성유,이영수,박록진,김종원,임교선 한국환경연구원 2009 기본연구보고서 Vol.2009 No.-

According to observational data from recent decades, both the northern and southern hemispheres have been subject to warming; with the northern hemisphere suffering disproportionate warming due to its larger landmass. Research on global warming and its effect on air quality has been proceeding vigorously in other countries. In Korea, on the other hand, while there have been some researches on the impact of climate change(i.e. global warming) on agriculture, forestry, and water resources, etc., research on global warming and its relationship to air quality has been limited. Accordingly, this study was devised to address gaps in the research literature by analyzing the impact of global warming on domestic air quality based on regional scale. IPCC SRES A1B was the scenario used to obtain future meteorological modeling results. Anthropogenic and natural emissions were fixed at the current value when forecasting current and future air quality to assess changes therein due to global warming. As a result, it was found that even if emissions are maintained at current levels, air quality is certain to decline due to global warming. Accordingly, in anticipation of future climate change, the nation as well as regional autonomous bodies will need to prepare sustainable air quality management policies, including strengthening regulations on emissions of pollutants, and strengthening environmental criteria at the national and regional level, while addressing vulnerability in air quality due to climate change. The main details of this study can be summarized as follows:□ Construction and verification of down-scaling for climate change forecasting 1. Down-scaling : ECHAM5(2oX2.5o) - RCM(50km) - WRF(12km) 2. Designation of a base year and future year : 1995(base year), 2055(future year) 3. System verification : comparison of model and observational values for meteorology and pollutant concentrations - Securing of reliability in meteorology data sets in the RCM(50km) and WRF(12km) domains - Results obtained through comparison with observed values for CO, SO2, NO2, and O3 were verified. □ Comparison of the climate in 1995 and 2055(forecast of climate change used IPCC SRES A1B) 1. In 2055, mean temperature in South Korea will increase by approximately 2℃ compared to 1995, while accumulated precipitation will increase. 2. In 2055, the southwest wind flow will strengthen, along with the north pacific anticyclone of the upper air of the Korean peninsula will strengthen. 3. Temperatures will rise an average 2.48℃ in each area, with the Youngnam area(i.e. Gyeongsang Nam and Buk Do, Busan, and Daegu) experiencing the largest increase at 2.71℃. 4. Mixing height : This will be most marked in the Youngnam area(-60.6m) and The Kangwon area will have the most limited changes(-18.7m). □ Assessment of air quality for each area between 1995 and 2055 1. Used air quality model : CMAQ(12km) 2. Air quality will worsen in 2055 compared to 1995 - CO 2.9%, NOX 2.8%, O3 4.8% will increase. 3. 8-hour O3 concentration, the largest factor for human health, was analysed. - The Youngnam area, with the highest O3 concentrations, will experience the most significant increases to 4.6ppb, while the 8-hour O3 concentration in South Korea will be 3.6ppb. - The number of days where 8-hour O3 levels exceed environmental standards in the summer will increase to 13.10 days in the Youngnam area, 9.14 days in the Chungcheong area, 8.39 days in the Kangwon area, 7.82 days in the Seoul/Gyeonggi area, and 3.08 days in the Honam area. 4. The maximum mean temperature and the maximum 8-hour O3 concentration have a mutually reinforcing relationship. - In the Seoul/Gyeonggi area, if the temperature increases by 1℃, the 8-hour O3 concentration will increase to 5.79ppb, and the Seoul/Gyeonggi area will be the most sensitive to climate change. - In South Korea, if maximum mean temperature increases by 1℃, the maximum 8-hour O3 concentration will increase to 4.20ppb. □ In conclusion, if human activities continue as they are, air quality will definitely worsen by 2055 1. Accordingly, policies should be prepared that enable sustainable management of air quality. - Emissions reduction policies are urgently needed. - Strengthening of environmental standards should be considered and reviewed. 2. Assessment of vulnerabilities with respect to air quality as related to climate change should be implemented. - Assessment of vulnerabilities based on the results of climate and air quality change for each region should be pursued. - Adaptation policies should be devised upon analysis of each region.

OA2) 지자체별 대기오염물질 배출량의 미세먼지 기여도 산정 연구

문난경,서지현,김순태 한국환경과학회 2018 한국환경과학회 학술발표회 발표논문집 Vol.2018 No.11

환경평가 지원을 위한 지역 환경현황분석 시스템 구축 및 운영

문난경,전동준,하종식,김순태,서지현,은정 한국환경연구원 2015 사업보고서 Vol.2015 No.-

The Korea Environment Institute (KEI) has been committed to the development and dissemination of professional review and evaluation techniques of environmental impact assessment through the operation of the Environmental Assessment Group in order enhance the professionalism and impartiality of Environmental Impact Assessment(EIA), which is one of the missions of the Institute. However, the current environmental assessment system is limited to the prediction and analysis of environmental status of individual project and plan and there is a limit in conducting a scientific and comprehensive evaluation reflecting the considerations of the differences in local environmental capacity and effect of temporal and spatial changes in environmental factors. Thus, the KEI Environmental Assessment Group rather than merely collecting data needs to operate a constant analysis system to examine the feasibility of development plans based on the analysis of environmental changes in the atmosphere, ecosystem, water quality and topography and future prediction during the review of strategic environmental assessment and environmental impact assessment. Therefore, this study aims to determine the environmental status across the nation by region and to establish an analysis system to assess the adequacy of future development plans. To that end during the first year, we performed analysis required for the environmental assessment of air quality and ecosystem. < Air quality > The objective of this study is to provide objective data for policy adjustments that can contribute to effectively improving air quality by operating air quality analysis system for existing and planned sources and in-advance assessment system to evaluate the impact of regional atmospheric effects in accordance with development plan. In this regard, we examined the air quality impacts of thermal power plants that are currently under operation as well as those scheduled for operation according to the 6th Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply and evaluate the impact on public health by estimating early death toll in order to analyze the impact of the energy projects that have one of the greatest impact on air quality. A study on the air quality impact found that the operation of domestic thermal power plants including the ones planned on the 6th Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply will result in a maximum of 24.56../.... (accounting for 49% of air quality standards) of PM2.5 and up to 94.269ppb in case of O3 concentration (accounting for 157% of air quality standards). In particular, the 8hr O3 maximum contribution level of Gangwon region showed a maximum of 11.74ppb or about 20% air quality standards due to the impact of thermal power plants planned under the 6th Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply, which raises the need for counter-measures. As a result of health impact assessments on the operation of thermal power plants including the ones planned on the 6th Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply, early deaths associated with the increase in PM2.5 was found to be 1,144 which means 34,320 premature deaths can occur when considering the power plants’ useful life of 30years. As air pollution is a broad-based issue affected by atmospheric conditions and chemical reactions, impact assessment on individual projects cannot ensure practical air quality management and preemptive management. Therefore it is necessary to manage the amount of generated air pollutants based on regional air quality analysis and to that end, measures should be taken to differentiate the air pollutant emission standards by region. Through the next year’s research, the plan is to complete the development feasibility evaluation systems by performing analysis of regional emission densities and additionally permissible emission amounts. < Ecosystem > Remote sensing techniques are being utilized in a wide range of fields as one of the effective methods for monitoring environment status. The benefit of using satellite images in monitoring the water environment of rivers and lakes is the ability to quickly identify the cause of problem and scale of damage. Satellite imagery has been actively used in other countries and the applicability of remote sensing techniques in water environmental monitoring has been sought by researchers in South Korea. The possibility of using satellite images as a tool for monitoring water environmental problems that occur in river or water resource development projects has been confirmed. In the ecology section of this study, we conducted research on air quality monitoring using near-infrared images of satellite data by assuming that data extracted from near-infrared images can be used to estimate plankton concentration, based on which algae status of water bodies can also be identified. Anomalies were identified by employing remote sensing techniques on the Nakdong river area where public’s attention has been brought on by the appearance of algae over a wide range after the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project. We compared the video information obtained from satellite images and water quality measurement data provided by public agencies and confirmed that there is a correlation between the values extracted from satellite images and on-site observations at the time of algae’s manifestation. Based on these results, we have confirmed the possibility of using remote sensing techniques in water quality monitoring while the limitations of remote sensing techniques were also confirmed and presented.

CMAQ을 적용한 환경영향평가서 작성에 대한 매뉴얼

문난경 한국환경연구원 2010 한국환경정책평가연구원 기초연구보고서 Vol.2010 No.-

지구온난화에 따른 지역규모 대기질 영향평가 2

문난경,홍성유,이영수,심창섭,김종원,신혜윰 한국환경연구원 2010 기본연구보고서 Vol.2010 No.-

Accumulated data obtained from satellite, surface, and upper air observations have shown that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases affecting the earth`s climate system have increased significantly since the Industrial Revolution. Over the last 250 years, concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased 35%, 143%, and 18%, respectively, propelling global warming more aggressively than ever before. For example, the radiative forcing due to increased carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement manufacture have risen nearly 20% in the last 30 years. As is well known, the ongoing climate change(global warming) has been causing natural disasters such as floods, landslides, heat waves and wildfires while the earth`s mean surface temperature has reached the highest level in the first half of 2010. Although research into climate change and its relationship to air quality has been vigorously pursued in some countries, few such studies have been undertaken in South Korea. Accordingly, the first year of study in 2009 was focused on building a down-scaling modeling system used to predict a three-dimensional meteorological field and its influences on regional scale air quality caused by climate changes. Subsequently, the impact of climate change on regional scale air quality was evaluated under the SRES A1B climate change scenario. Anthropogenic and natural emissions were fixed at the current value in forecasting current and future air qualities in order to closely investigate climate change effects alone. The results showed that the number of days exceeding national standard for 8-hour ozone concentration would increase by about 9 days in South Korea in 2055 as compared to 1995. In other words, the deterioration of air quality due to global warming would be certain even in the unlikely scenario that emissions remain at the current levels. Based on the results of the first year of the study, the current study, the second year, estimated changes in future air quality considering changes in both climate and emissions. Emissions of the projection year are based on 1) SRES A1B, 2) the maximum and 3) the minimum level of China`s emissions. Moreover, the effects of climate change alone was measured with emission rate calculated at the present level. Simulation results for three summers current (from 1994-1996) and future (2054-2056) each in East Asia using the down-scaling meteorological modeling system indicated that the north pacific anticyclonic will strengthen and the seasonal rain front will move to the north in the future. The mean temperature in South Korea, Japan, and the north pacific area will increase by approximately 2℃, while precipitation will increase except for the eastern part of Tibetan Plateau and the north pacific area. In South Korea, the mean temperature will rise by 1.51℃, with the Youngnam area experiencing the largest increase of 1.75℃. In addition, the mean accumulated precipitation is expected to increase, with the Kangwon area experiencing the largest increase of 140mm. The mean PBL height decline of 24m on average is predicted overall in South Korea; however, the daily maximum mean PBL height increase of 18m and 8m in Youngnam and Honam areas respectively is expected, areas where a relatively dramatic increase of the mean temperature will likely materialize. The current study also examined the fluctuations in ozone concentration on the Korean peninsula, calculated using the regional air quality model (CMAQ). Results showed that even if emissions are maintained at the current levels, ozone concentration will certainly increase due to global warming. The effects of climate change alone in South Korea account for an increase of 7ppb in summertime daily average of maximum 8-hour ozone concentration. In particular, Youngnam and Honam areas, with predicted dramatic increases in average temperatures, will experience significant increases of approximately 8ppb. Taking China`s emissions into consideration, the combined effect on air quality due to changes in both climate and emissions was investigated. The results showed that the daily average of maximum 8-hour ozone concentrations increase of around 16ppb under the SRES A1B, about 19ppb in the scenario of maximum future Chinese emissions, and about 5ppb with minimum Chinese emissions. Based on the results above, the study predicted that up to 22 additional days each year will exceed the 8-hour ozone concentration limit of 60ppb in the future in South Korea under the future climate and SRES A1B emission scenario. The contributions of different processes were assessed by means of the Process Analysis(PA) available within the CMAQ model. Providing the effects of all the physical processes and net effect of chemistry on model predictions, the process analysis indicated that the increased ozone concentration for the future in South Korea is mainly due to horizontal and vertical transport phenomena originating from China`s wind flow. Following, the mortality effect of increased ozone concentration on the population of South Korea was calculated using the Concentration-Response function. It was estimated that the total number of premature deaths due to increased ozone concentrations in 2055 compared with 1995 is 4,160 under climate change and SRES A1B emission scenario, and 2,294 under climate change alone. Nor surprisingly, it is also expected that the number of premature deaths for the year 2055 might increase more significantly if future population and age distribution caused by extension of the average life expectancy is taken into consideration in this study. In conclusion, air quality will indubitably deteriorate if human activities continue as they are, not to mention under the SRES A1B emission scenario. Worse yet, the results presented here imply that the impacts of climate change on air quality in East Asia are more serious than any other region in the world. Accordingly, the policies related to emission reduction and strengthening of environmental standards enabling sustainable management of future air quality should be thoroughly prepared . Last but not least, adaptation strategies for public health also need to be considered carefully.

MM5와 WRF를 사용한 대기질 모델링 결과 비교

문난경,김순태 한국대기환경학회 2009 한국대기환경학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2009 No.5월

산업단지 공급계획의 대기분야 전략환경평가 기반구축

문난경,김순태,서지현 한국환경연구원 2011 기본연구보고서 Vol.2011 No.-

June 5th, 2008, Special Cases for streamlining permit procedures of Industrial Complex (Law No. 9106) was enacted, and when it was implemented in August of the same year, a large number of development plans for industrial complexes were established. In April 2010, the National Assembly Budget Office raised concerns about the oversupply of industrial complexes which had exceeded the fixed demand stipulated in the Industrial Sites Supply Plan. However, the supply of industry complexes, their location appropriateness, environmental impacts of each individual project were reviewed, and regional comprehensive reviews for environmental impact were not undertaken. In terms of local air quality management, a long-term development plan rather than a single development plan that changes the air quality through a comprehensive assessment is necessary to forecast in advance the creation of development plans. However, development plans to improve and manage the regional air quality have not yet been created because environmental impact assessments for individual projects are still being conducted without comprehensive pre-assessments. In addition, wide assessments that include adjacent areas with municipalities are required because the air quality of adjacent areas will be affected according to the weather. Therefore, we determined the adequacy of supply planning and examined the possibility of future supply by reviewing the impact of the National Industrial Complex Supply Plan on the air quality. To this end, we checked the air quality changes by applying industrial complex development plan that completed the consultation at the end of 2010 and presented the Adequacy Review Plan (plan) of future development plans based on the study`s results. According to the Industrial Complex Development Plan, emissions mainly increased in the Jeonbuk and Chungnam area as a result of the emission estimation. Compared to the current emission levels, CO emissions increased by 4% in Chungnam and Jeonbuk, as well as by 2.5% in Daegu. NOx emissions increased 18% in Jeonbuk, while increasing 15% in Chungnam and Daegu. In the case of PM10, emissions increased 18%, 16%, and 13% in Jeonbuk, Chungnam, and Daegu respectively. For SO2, emissions increased 85% in Jeonbuk, while increasing 60% in Daegu and Chungnam. As a result of emission changes, a big difference in air quality concentration was generally observed in Jeonnam and Daegu spaced away from Jeonbuk and Chungnam indicated a significant increase in emissions. These results were transpired because the air quality concentrations are influenced by weather and complex photochemical reactions. In particular, 24hr SO2 concentrations of Daegu increased by 44.6% during winters and by 61.5% during summers when compared to current air quality concentrations. In the case of 24hr PM10, concentrations increased by 6.4% in Daegu during winter and by 11.7% in Jeonbuk during summer. 24hr NO2 concentrations in Jeonnam increased by 11.6% during winter and 29.4% during summer. Based on these results, the Adequacy Review Plan (plan) of future development plans is proposed as follows: ? Substances: PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, O3 ? High pollution areas, such as air quality regulated regions and special policy districts - Upon execution of development plans, review whether environmental standards are in excess. ? Relatively low concentration background areas - Upon execution of development plans, review whether air quality levels are in excess based on 10~20% when compared to current levels. - As secondary pollutants are generated by complex photochemical reactions, review the number and area size of exceeding 1hr, 8hr average environmental standard. However, in performing this study, limitations have risen due to the lack of ensuring resources and limited research period. In particular, sustainable complementary is now needed to improve the limitations of calculation unit methods. Additionally, subsequent studies about the adequacy reviews of development plans are needed to complement the policy proposals and derive policies through their findings. In this study, we searched the methodology and application for industrial complex development plans in terms of atmospheric environment. Base on the study`s findings, it is necessary to build a comprehensive SEA tool by adding other environmental items.

환경영향평가시 대기확산모델의 적용에 관한 연구

문난경,이영수,강영현,김영하 한국환경연구원 2005 기본연구보고서 Vol.2005 No.-

This study aims to develop effective environment assessment guidance by applying regional and project characteristics based intensive analysis tools on air-quality emphasized projects and by applying screening analysis tools on non-air-quality emphasized projects. Also, assessment contents for the stage of PERS and EIA are discussed, and the study results are summarizes for three categories as follows. First, each of Preliminary Environment Review System(PERS) and Environment Impact Assessment(EIA) has a different goal. However, it is hard to figure out those different characteristics of PERS and EIA from the actual reports. In order to clarify the content of PERS and EIA, the site-suitability should be mainly discussed in PERS. The development for mitigation plan, on the other hand, should be a main consideration in EIA. There are not so many differences in model application methods, but the secondary pollutant assessment, which has not been conducted by far, is required for both systems. Second, in order to better consider the effect of real topography in air quality modeling, AERMOD (The American Meteorological Society[AMS/EPA Regulatory MODel]) should take over ISCST3. AERMOD represents advances in the formulation of a steady-state, Gaussian plume model. It is apparent that AERMOD has an advantage over ISCST3 when the various scientific components are compared. Especially, AERMOD considers non-Gaussian plume in convective condition and accounts for a dispersion rate that is a continuous function of meteorology. In contrast, ISCST3 assumes that the dispersion rate is constant with height, and the plume is always Gaussian in form. Therefore, AERMOD is recommended over a complex terrain area. However, AERMOD has neither a lake breeze model to assess shoreline fumigation conditions nor is it capable of considering coastal and over-water interaction such as thermal internal boundary layer(TIBL) development. This prevents applying the AERMOD over coastline area with large point sources. A proper model that overcomes the limitation of AERMOD could be CALPUFF. CALPUFF is an integrated puff model capable of modeling instantaneous or continuous releases over distances ranging from hundreds of meters to hundreds of kilometers. In practice, the effect of a large point source could range over hundreds of kilometers. CALPUFF contains a meteorological preprocessor which produces a gridded three-dimensional flow fields of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, mixing layer height, and atmospheric turbulence, using available surface and upper air measurements. Also, CALPUFF includes a complex terrain algorithm(Complex 1) to account for the effect of elevated terrain on ground level concentrations, and a shoreline model to account for the formation of a thermal internal boundary layer due to land-water temperature differences. Therefore, CALPUFF is recommended over coastline area and complex terrain area with large point source. Third, screening method is required in construction and use process to improve the efficiency of assessment. At this point, we select all the items that can be waived advanced air quality modeling process in use process of EIA. Then, we can save the labor by virtue of the improved efficiency of the suggested method, which can be applied to construction process as good as use process. However, if the result of concentration from the screening method is greater than the national(province) standard value, then the advanced modeling should be conducted as next step.

주요 국가산업단지 운영으로 인한 PM_2.5 기여농도 및 조기 사망자 수 산정

문난경,하종식,서지현 한국환경연구원 2018 환경포럼 Vol.228 No.-

정부는 『미세먼지 특별대책』 및 『관계부처 합동 미세먼지 관리 종합대책』을 발표하며 국내 미세먼지 저감을 위하여 다각도로 노력하고 있다. 국내 미세먼지의 주요 원인으로 화력발전소와 경유 차량을 지목하고 있으나 국내 산업단지 운영이 미세먼지에 미치는 영향 또한 적지 않을 것으로 예상된다. 대규모 산업단지에서 무연탄을 사용하거나 소규모 산업단지가 모여 다량의 질소산화물이 발생할 경우, 미세먼지의 전구물질로 작용할 수 있다. 이에 주요 국가산업단지 운영이 국내 PM_2.5 농도 생성에 미치는 기여도를 산정하고, 그로 인한 조기 사망자 수 산정을 통해 국민건강에 미치는 영향을 평가하여 그 심각성을 진단하고 산업단지관리의 중요성을 살펴보고자 한다

17개 지자체에 대한 미세먼지 전구물질별 기여도 및 전환율 산정

문난경,서지현 한국환경연구원 2021 환경포럼 Vol.258 No.-

미세먼지는 대기 중으로 배출되면 기상 흐름에 따라 이동하면서 화학반응이 일어나고 이와 함께 확산되는 특성이 있어 대상 지역의 오염원 관리만으로는 실질적인 대기질 관리와 개선이 어렵다. 즉 인접 지역에 미치는 미세먼지의 상호 영향을 고려하지 않고는 미세먼지 개선을 기대하기는 쉽지 않으므로 국가 전체에 대한 누적적이고 광역 적인 대기질 현황을 파악하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 배출량 변화에 따른 인접 지역의 미세먼지 상호 영향을 정량적으로 파악하기 위해서는 매우 전문적이고 복잡한 3차원 대기질 모델링을 거쳐야 하므로 지자체 또는 정책계획 수립자가 이를 수행 하는 것은 현실적으로 쉽지 않다. 이에 본고는 지자체별 대기오염 배출물질이 대상 지역과 인접 지역의 대기질에 미치는 기여농도를 분석하고, 미세먼지 전구물질 배출량에 대한 PM2.5 농도 생성의 전환율(배출량 1톤당 생성되는 미세먼지 농도)을 산정하여 지자체 대기질 관리에 활용할 수 있도록 하고자 한다